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Since Belorussian people don't have tanks - I would assume that any attempt towards "revolution" would be squashed by Belarusian and Russian tanks. Just like the Hungarian Uprising of 1956. Especially by Russian troops since they are already in Belarus and the Kremlin will not be willing to give up onto the strategic Suwalki corridor/gap.
What "new weaponry" aside from some artillery equipment, small arms, munition, ATGM's/Manpads and some APC's?
I don't think Ukraine has any interest in attacking Russia proper - their sole aim is to get rid of the invaders and reclaim their land.WASHINGTON, May 26 (Reuters) - As the United States and its allies provide Ukraine with increasingly sophisticated arms, Washington has held discussions with Kyiv about the danger of escalation if it strikes deep inside Russia, U.S. and diplomatic officials tell Reuters.
The behind-the-scenes discussions, which are highly sensitive and have not been previously reported, do not put explicit geographic restrictions on the use of weapons supplied to Ukrainian forces. But the conversations have sought to reach a shared understanding of the risk of escalation, three U.S. officials and diplomatic sources said.
"We have concerns about escalation and yet still do not want to put geographic limits or tie their hands too much with the stuff we're giving them," said one of the three U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Exclusive: U.S. and Ukraine discuss danger of escalation as new arms extend Kyiv's reach
As the United States and its allies provide Ukraine with increasingly sophisticated arms, Washington has held discussions with Kyiv about the danger of escalation if it strikes deep inside Russia, U.S. and diplomatic officials tell Reuters.
This angers me. Nothing we are supplying to Ukraine can make for an existential threat to Russia, so why are we even opening this conversation? If you're giving weapons to a guy you know is in for the fight of his life, you accept that your own weapons may cause offense, or harm, or mayhem, or deaths. We Americans should not be attaching strings to any arms we lend or lease or donate. And we shouldn't be pussyfooting around about it.
At the very least, if DC wants to micromanage the war, they should grow a pair of balls and put American troops into the line. Absent that, they should STFU about how these weapons are used.
/rant (hopefully, I may return to this as circumstances warrant, god damn it.)
I think Ukraine is going to lose the east.
Zelensky has made it clear that Ukraine will not accept anything less than Russia leaving Ukrainian soil.
Presently it does look that way
Only if they lose everything. Ukraine will not stop fighting till then.
Pragmatism will prevail. The West and US have already been nudging for an immediate ceasefire. My prediction is that Putin will soon take most of the Donbas, declare victory and stand down, calling for talks.
That would be very optimistic - taking the existing Russian military and economic losses into account. IMO he will continue towards his ultimate goal - Kiev.
No, if at all the Baltic republics are far more appealing to him.
If Putin calls a unilateral ceasefire, and if the West wants a ceasefire, they'll turn off the weapons to Ukraine. Zelensky will have no choice.
Zelensky will keep going no matter what.
You are probably right. The revanchist/irredentist would only push to reclaim previously controlled territory. The Baltic states, Ukraine, Poland, Moldova, Alaska. Espousing a Greater Slavic Co-prosperity Sphere, you could throw in Slovakia, Czech Republic, Bulgaria. Rumenia, Hungary and Germany just to round out the old Soviet Empire. But Puton is a true believer in a sort of Manifest Destiny of Russian led world communism. So why stop?
They'll quieten down when Ukraine begins taking back more territory not previously abandoned by the Russians. Kharkiv's rescue was a good sign. Everyone wants to back an underdog who's successful. The Ukrainians now have the better weapons, training, intel and morale. It's now time for that to bear fruit.
