"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (6 Viewers)

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The first US supplied HIMARS/MLRS battery (4 launchers) will be ready for operational deployment ~end of June. A second US supplied HIMARS/MLRS battery is currently working up.

It should be noted that part of the training and working up period involves integrating the HIMAES/MLRS with associated support personnel and vehicles in order to create a more sustainable "maneuver" unit.
 
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An opinion piece I've read this morning:


Make no mistake: No one can win the war in Ukraine. First, defining "wining" and "losing" is complicated. Unless Russia were to use nuclear weapons, and that may not be sufficient, it lacks the forces to defeat the Ukrainian military and occupy all of Ukraine against what would be a massive, long-term insurrection. And Ukraine lacks the military power to retake Crimea and all the Donbas under Russian control.

Thus, winning and losing in Ukraine is not relevant. The Korean War, which still has not ended with a peace treaty, underscores this point. The boundary of the 38th parallel was restored after both sides took large losses and both Koreas were devastated by the conflict. Yet, none of the belligerents could declare victory or admit defeat.

Second, Ukraine has been largely destroyed as a functioning state by the unprovoked and illegal Russian invasion. Many Ukrainian cities and much of its infrastructure have been turned into rubble. Rebuilding and reconstruction will take decades and cost hundreds of billions of dollars. Even if Russia were able to overrun Ukraine, it could never afford the expense of repairing the destruction it imposed.

Third, Russia has been isolated. It has provoked NATO to add two new members and increase its defense spending and capability directed against Russia. The sanctions have harmed Russian citizens and its economy, not the elites. And the huge losses it has taken cannot be ignored by the families and friends of those soldiers killed or wounded in battle.

Fourth, Russia's refusal to return captured Ukrainian territory and Ukraine's demands to the contrary make any successful negotiations infeasible. That means, at best, a ceasefire, armistice, stalemate or suspension of fighting are the only plausible outcomes. And none of these eliminates further escalation by either party.

Current Ukrainian, U.S., NATO and Russian strategies appear to be two sides of the same coin. Ukraine is attempting to extend the fight until winter, build up forces and military capabilities, and resume the offensive next year, expecting losses will ultimately force Russia to negotiate an end to the fighting. Russia is maintaining its offensive in the expectation that Ukraine and the West ultimately will capitulate, leaving Russia in control of the land it now occupies and waiting for a much later date to finish its conquest of the rest of the country with an attack to gain control of Kyiv.

[...]
Washington could reverse those restrictions. It could also send anti-ship missiles with longer ranges than the Harpoon systems en route to be used against Russia's Black Sea surface warships. It could also supply weapons to take down the Kerch Bridge linking both sides of the Sea of Azov and greatly restricting Russia's supply lines with the aim of forcing Russia to negotiate.

Russia could follow a parallel strategy. Taking Severdonetsk quickly and then proposing negotiations is one. But negotiations are complicated, if not made impossible, by other factors. Russia will want all sanctions lifted. Ukraine will need security guarantees to prevent another Russian invasion. And Ukraine needs many billions to reconstruct the country. At this point, it does not appear that any of these issues can be resolved.

[...]

The imperfect option is to broaden and increase the flow of weapons to Ukraine while ending any self-deterring restraints to impose as many casualties on Russia's military and destroy as much of its capability as possible. Killing one's way to end a war is not a strategy. But it is, sadly, the least worst course that can be achieved.

 
Quite good, and IMHO neutral, economic analysis of the war.

When Russia commenced its invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, the West responded with a harsh regime of sanctions and measures that were intended to deeply wound the Russian economy. Now, more than 100 days on, it's hard to find consensus over exactly how well those measures are working. Some will tell you that Russia is on its knees, incapable of carrying on the war much longer, while others will insist that it's Ukraine and Europe that are about to break. In this video I look at the sanctions measures that have been imposed, what impact they've had, and try to assess how well the Russian and Ukrainian economies are holding up, and what may be next in store as the fighting (and economic pressure) continues.
 

Ukraine hits oil Crimean drilling platforms, pro-Russian regional head says

Ukrainian forces attacked drilling platforms in the Black Sea owned by a Crimean oil and gas company, the pro-Russian head of the annexed peninsula said on Monday, giving no details of what weapons were used.
www.reuters.com

Russia condemns Lithuania transit ban to Kaliningrad, vows response

The Kremlin on Monday called Lithuania's decision to ban the transit of some goods to Russia's Kaliningrad region "unprecedented" and vowed to respond.
www.reuters.com

Also there are rumors of explosions on snake island (may the first MLRS have arrived?)

Explosions rocked on Zmeiny Island : Daily Banner

There is no official confirmation of this information yet. The media learned about the explosions at Zmeiny / photo from UNIAN, Oleg Kutsky On the Snake Islandwhich was temporarily captured by Russian invaders, dozens of explosions thundered and a fire started. The Odessa site writes about this...
dailybanner.co.uk
 
re Snake Island missile attack

Probably an AGM/RGM-84 Harpoon Block II or a SLAM-ER variant. It can be fired from the same ground launcher as used with the coast defense anti-ship variants. The missile has more than enough range to reach from the nearby mainland (it is only ~23 miles to the nearest point on the mainland, and there are plenty more launch points within 40 miles).
 
Yeah, but the rumor talks about dozens of explosions. I wouldn't waste dozens of harpoons on a tiny island.
Anyway, it has not been confirmed yet.

EDIT: Also some people suggest that the (suppossed) attack to snake island could actually be the attack to oil platforms, which has already been confirmed. Is not the first time that a single event is reported as multiple events.
 
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Conflicting reports about the alleged attack on the island and nothing official yet. But at least one Russian oil platform was attacked with damages and casualties, which was confirmed by the occupation administration of Crimea.
 
Interesting bits of news, with some humor tossed in for a bonus.

"Russia warns Lithuania over Kaliningrad goods restrictions"

Lithuania's state-owned railway informed clients that from Friday June 17 rail transported sanctioned goods would not be permitted to cross Lithuania to the Kaliningrad Oblast. Sandwiched between European Union and NATO members Poland and Lithuania, Kaliningrad receives supplies from Russia via rail and gas pipelines through Lithuania. It is estimated that the Lithuanian ban would affect about 50% of all imports to the Oblast.

"The situation is more than serious," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters. "This decision is really unprecedented. It's a violation of everything."

Russia warned NATO member Lithuania on Monday that unless the transit of goods to Russia's Kaliningrad exclave on the Baltic Sea was swiftly restored then Moscow would take measures to defend its national interests. Russia's foreign ministry demanded Vilnius reverse what it cast as an "openly hostile" move immediately. "If cargo transit between the Kaliningrad region and the rest of the Russian Federation via Lithuania is not fully restored in the near future, then Russia reserves the right to take actions to protect its national interests."

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told reporters in Luxembourg "It's not Lithuania doing anything [unilaterally]: it's European sanctions that started working from 17 of June,"

In Lithuania it is not popularly being called a blockade of Kaliningrad, but instead a "special access denial operation".

Recently, Lithuanian citizens crowd-funded a $5.4 million Byraktar drone for Ukraine in just 3 days.
 
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Another bit of news, rather bizarre in my opinion.

"The famine will start now and they will lift the sanctions and be friends with us, because they will realize that it's impossible not to be friends with us," said Kremlin propagandist Margarita Simonyan during the Petersburg Economic Forum.

 
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What a russian BS. Again - why should Ukraine recapture this small island. With their limited forces on hand the island has currently no value for them. Plus there are too many nice targets in the air and in the water trying to get there almost every day.
Let the enemy keep it and wait for his next target ship/helo to come by
 
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