"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."

Grandson312 said:

If Ukraine has the right to self-determination, why does the Donbas region's people not have that right?

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So, by that calculus, the Confederacy should have been allowed to secede from the Union. Is that what you're saying? That path simply leads to increasingly smaller "balkanized" geopolitical entities that lack the ability to be self-sustaining....so they become vassals for a larger, more powerful neighbour in which case, how much self-determination do you think they truly have?

Grandson312 said:

What kind of nation allows a Nazi-riddled battalion to officially enter their National Guard? Desperate times create strange allies, for sure. I'm not judging Ukrainians, or justifying Putin's war. I don't even understand the extent of it. All I'm basing this on is the unit's own admission (Drill Sgt. claimed 50% of the unit were Nazis, Official Spokesperson praised that officer, and said "only" 10%-20% of the unit were Nazis)

It is in my opinion reasonable to assume that either a) there are Nazis at higher levels in the Ukraine military that allowed this unit to be accepted into its official Guard, or b) there were major conditions attached to that acceptance that I have not found a report on, and it's also possible both of these things are true at once.

Anyway, this is the source article from 2015 in which the first interviews took place. It wasn't all that easy to find.

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Firstly, it's clear that more senior leaders above the drill sergeant disagreed not only with his characterization of the unit, but also with the way in way he engaged with the media.

I'd like to understand what constitutes a "nazi." Every nation has problems with right-wing extremists...the EU nations and the US are no exceptions. What's the dividing line between US right-wing extremists and Ukrainian "nazis"? I'd like to understand so we can determine if Ukraine is so very different from other nations.

The report dates from 2015. Zelensky was elected in 2016 on a promise of eradicating Ukrainian corruption and he's made decent progress. It's not something that can be changed overnight but substantial progress, according to international metrics, has been made. The weaving of any extreme ideology within democratic structures inherently brings corruption, via nepotism if nothing else, so I have to assume some progress has been made....perhaps not enough.

Please understand I'm not saying Zelensky is a saint (he is, after all, a politician...which is a four-letter word). Nor am I saying that Ukraine is blameless in this debacle. However, the action by Russia is entirely disproportionate to any threat Ukraine posed.

Grandson312 said:

Would there be a war right now, if Ukraine had allowed Donbas to secede?

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You need to look at what happened in 2014 in more detail. Even a casual study reveals that the fighting in Donbas in 2014 resulted in hundreds of thousands of refugees, which went roughly 50/50 west and east. Donbas was not homogenously Russian-leaning. There were plenty of loyal Ukrainians living there. The simple fact is that Russia stoked aggression in the region, provided arms to militants and special forces operatives to disrupt the situation. They took portions of Donbas by force...and then complained about Ukraine resisting that invasion. I'm not saying Ukraine is innocent but it's more complex than simply saying "let Donbas secede." What about all the loyal Ukrainians in Donbas who didn't want to secede?

Grandson312 said:

Would there be a war right now, if Ukraine had de-Nazified its own military?

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Putin is using the whole nazi moniker to self-justify the decisions he'd already made. Did Putin ever say "De-nazify your military and we'll pull back"? Nope. He simply said "We're just holding exercises. We're not planning to invade." Don't be fooled by Putin throwing around the nazi moniker...he's doing that to stoke his own support in Russia based on memories of the Great Patriotic War.

Putin wanted to keep Ukraine within Moscow's sphere of influence. He didn't want Ukraine leaning further towards the west (which is where Zelensky was leading the country), and he particularly didn't want Ukraine joining NATO. So, yes, we would have still had war if Ukraine had "de-nazified" (whatever that means) its military.

Grandson312 said:

Do severe sanctions that starve and freeze a people have a substantially different effect than killing civilians outright? If severe sanctions over time kill more civilians and starve more children than the war itself, does that not only perpetuate the cycle?

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Putin doesn't care about civilians...his own or anybody else's. The only way to invoke change with Putin is either militarily (which NOBODY wants in Europe for fear of escalation into nuclear war) or to hit him with sanctions that not only impact him but also affect all his cronies and the oligarchs that run Russia.

Please note if any NATO nation gets involved militarily, then it simply lets Putin say "I told you so...NATO isn't defensive, it's aggressive and focused on destroying Russia."

Grandson312 said:

The purpose of my questions is the interest in peace, and finding different paths to it, because it seems we (humanity) are repeating patterns that have not worked very well, and squanders the bravery and strength of our warriors in my opinion. There must be alternatives to what has been tried before, and so clearly failed.

What could be done differently? Any thoughts on de-escalation? Also, please tell me how and where I am wrong.

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The biggest problem right now is finding an exit strategy. Putin clearly wants Ukraine to be disarmed and become a puppet of Moscow. Ukrainians aren't going to let that happen. One possible negotiated settlement is the ceding of some territory from Ukraine to Russia but, again, I don't see Kyiv or the Ukrainian people doing that...it simply rewards hostile aggression.

So...no, I don't see an easy way out of this. While Ukraine isn't totally innocent, nothing that's been done to-date by Ukraine justifies the actions that Putin has taken. The only hope is that, somehow, Putin is deposed by a more rational leader...and I'm not holding my breath for that to happen any time soon.

Hmm, the Russians look weak, but still I expect them to surround the city of Kiev in the coming days. Don't see the Ukrainians capable of preventing that.
My thoughts are with all Ukrainian members and especially with the ones living in Kiev. Stay safe!

Grandson312 said:

I've read through this whole thread so far. Good discussion. My heart goes out to all the people, and especially children being harmed by this shortsighted action - Ukrainians, Russians, and anyone else who will be impacted. In a way, I'm glad the "Candy Bomber" passed away before this really broke out. I would hate to have him had that kind of anxiety when leaving this life.

One aspect I researched was Putin's justification of "de-Nazifying" Ukraine. I haven't seen this mentioned in the thread, and unfortunately is not just Russian propaganda. Ukraine really does have a serious Nazi problem which has to be addressed, when this is over. Ukraine is no innocent lamb by any stretch, and the Black & White portrayal being pushed by the same media that we know has lied to us constantly should ring a few alarms.

If Ukraine has the right to self-determination, why does the Donbas region's people not have that right?

What kind of nation allows a Nazi-riddled battalion to officially enter their National Guard? Desperate times create strange allies, for sure. I'm not judging Ukrainians, or justifying Putin's war. I don't even understand the extent of it. All I'm basing this on is the unit's own admission (Drill Sgt. claimed 50% of the unit were Nazis, Official Spokesperson praised that officer, and said "only" 10%-20% of the unit were Nazis)

It is in my opinion reasonable to assume that either a) there are Nazis at higher levels in the Ukraine military that allowed this unit to be accepted into its official Guard, or b) there were major conditions attached to that acceptance that I have not found a report on, and it's also possible both of these things are true at once.

Anyway, this is the source article from 2015 in which the first interviews took place. It wasn't all that easy to find.

Volunteer Ukrainian unit includes Nazis

I could not find a follow-up report, so I don't know if the problem worsened, improved, or stayed the same. We can say for sure that in 2015, there was zero intention to correct it.

Hiding the Ukrainian Nazi problem only lends credence to Putin's exaggerations, so please don't confuse this with a pro-Putin stance.

Would there be a war right now, if Ukraine had allowed Donbas to secede?
Would there be a war right now, if Ukraine had de-Nazified its own military?
Do severe sanctions that starve and freeze a people have a substantially different effect than killing civilians outright? If severe sanctions over time kill more civilians and starve more children than the war itself, does that not only perpetuate the cycle?

The purpose of my questions is the interest in peace, and finding different paths to it, because it seems we (humanity) are repeating patterns that have not worked very well, and squanders the bravery and strength of our warriors in my opinion. There must be alternatives to what has been tried before, and so clearly failed.

What could be done differently? Any thoughts on de-escalation? Also, please tell me how and where I am wrong.

Thanks

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Just a quick point about the so-called Nazis - President Zelensky's family save for one brother, was murdered by Nazis in WWII.
The one survivor, Zelensky's grandfather, fought the Germans during WWII.

Pretty sure that if there were actual Nazis in Ukraine, Zelensky would have dealt with the issue without needing Putin's help...

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:

Apparently during a meeting with then president Trump he told him that the nuclear option was on the table if war broke out. Not sure the validity of this, so take it for what it is. I guess Putin threatening with nukes should not surprise anyone anyhow.

"Additionally, Hill said in one of the final meetings between Trump and Putin — where she was present — Putin tried to warn Trump about this very possibility but she didn't "think Trump figured out what he was saying."

She said: "Putin was making the point that: 'Well you know, Donald, we have these hypersonic missiles.' And Trump was saying, 'Well, we will get them too.' Putin was saying, 'Well, yes, you will get them eventually, but we've got them first.'"

Fiona Hill says Trump missed Putin warning nuclear option was possible

"So if anybody thinks that Putin wouldn't use something that he's got that is unusual and cruel, think again," Hill said.

www.businessinsider.com

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I am sure there is no knowing what he would do if he got desperate enough. But I would not put too much stake in what she says. Isn't this the same Fiona Hill who during the Obama administration argued against sending weapons to Ukraine as it might provoke a Russian attack and then criticized Trump during the impeachment hearings for following the same policy and not supplying Ukraine with weapons? Is this also the Fiona Hill who introduced Christopher Steele to Igor Denchenko and never divulged that fact to Congress or the DOJ? Just asking..... now I'll probably get a warning about being too political, but you unnecessarily included in your post the criticism of Trump by Hill, who has become a clear partisan operator.

Another take on the same conversation is of course Trump is downplaying the threat. Or, would she rather see the U.S. President grovel and say, "oh no please Mr. Putin don't launch your missiles at us." Give me break.

pgeno71 said:

I am sure there is no knowing what he would do if he got desperate enough. But I would not put too much stake in what she says. Isn't this the same Fiona Hill who during the Obama administration argued against sending weapons to Ukraine as it might provoke a Russian attack and then criticized Trump during the impeachment hearings for following the same policy and not supplying Ukraine with weapons? Is this also the Fiona Hill who introduced Christopher Steele to Igor Denchenko and never divulged that fact to Congress or the DOJ? Just asking..... now I'll probably get a warning about being too political, but you unnecessarily included in your post the criticism of Trump by Hill, who has become a clear partisan operator.

Another take on the same conversation is of course Trump is downplaying the threat. Or, would she rather see the U.S. President grovel and say, "oh no please Mr. Putin don't launch your missiles at us." Give me break.

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That wasn't my point…

My point was Putin has always made his intentions clear. It should come as no surprise.

Steady on, chaps...we're gusting perilously close to politics here (and I'm not a moderator). This has been a great thread with lots of good inputs. I'd hate to see it closed down because we err into domestic US politics.

Putin threatening with nukes does not surprise anyone. The fact he's threatening everyone reminds me of a hostage taker waving his gun at anyone who comes near.

Greg Boeser said:

Putin threatening with nukes does not surprise anyone. The fact he's threatening everyone reminds me of a hostage taker waving his gun at anyone who comes near.

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TBH, that's my biggest fear. He's embarked on this ridiculous adventure with no clear exit strategy. He isn't going to win in the long run and anything less than victory makes him look weak. I worry that he'll feel cornered...and we all know what happens to a cornered bear.

Here is the Ruble to Euro exchange rate right now:


vs the USD its pretty close as well.

I have to feel bad for the innocent Russian citizens who like most of us are just trying to
make it through they day with shelter over their head and food on the table.

buffnut453 said:

TBH, that's my biggest fear. He's embarked on this ridiculous adventure with no clear exit strategy. He isn't going to win in the long run and anything less than victory makes him look weak. I worry that he'll feel cornered...and we all know what happens to a cornered bear.

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for me he looks like Khrushchev during UN session screaming on rest of the world with shoe in his hand - scary and funny in the same time..... and very... russian/imperial

vikingBerserker said:

Here is the Ruble to Euro exchange rate right now:
View attachment 659857

vs the USD its pretty close as well.

I have to feel bad for the innocent Russian citizens who like most of us are just trying to
make it through they day with shelter over their head and food on the table.

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I entirely agree. It's always the innocent who suffer when those who think they're invulnerable or omnipotent become aggressive.

Given that many of the oligarchs grew up during the Soviet era, perhaps they'd be willing to share their billions with the common workers to help alleviate their suffering? No? Thought not!

buffnut453 said:

TBH, that's my biggest fear. He's embarked on this ridiculous adventure with no clear exit strategy. He isn't going to win in the long run and anything less than victory makes him look weak. I worry that he'll feel cornered...and we all know what happens to a cornered bear.

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Ditto. He is basically like a wounded dog backed into a corner with no way out. He played all his cards in a game he cannot win. He is capable of anything at this point. Very scary times.

I still hope there is another modern day Colonel Stanislav Petrov that will stop him. Hopefully there are enough cooler heads within his regime who are holding secret talks and one morning we wake up to him being removed from office.

vikingBerserker said:

Here is the Ruble to Euro exchange rate right now:
View attachment 659857

vs the USD its pretty close as well.

I have to feel bad for the innocent Russian citizens who like most of us are just trying to
make it through they day with shelter over their head and food on the table.

Click to expand...

The Russian people are victims of this too. It's not good for anyone.

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:

Ditto. He is basically like wounded dog backed into a corner with no way out. He played all his cards in a game he cannot win. He is capable of anything at this point. Very scary times.

I still hope there is another modern day Colonel Stanislav Petrov that will stop him. Hopefully there are enough cooler heads within his regime who are holding secret talks and one morning we wake up to being removed from office.

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I agree. Come on, its' Russia. There has to be somebody angling for Putin.

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:

The Russian people are victims of this too. It's not good for anyone.

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Agreed. I'm reading these reports of Russian POWs who thought they were on a training exercise in Russia/Belarus and then suddenly found themselves in a shooting war. It's not clear how far up the command chain the obfuscation occurred. Clearly, the pilots knew exactly where they were flying and what they were attacking. It's easier to hide the truth from the grunt soldiers, particularly if the officer is the only one with the map.

GrauGeist said:

Just a quick point about the so-called Nazis - President Zelensky's family save for one brother, was murdered by Nazis in WWII.
The one survivor, Zelensky's grandfather, fought the Germans during WWII.

Pretty sure that if there were actual Nazis in Ukraine, Zelensky would have dealt with the issue without needing Putin's help...

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Agreed. It's hard to see Zelensky, who's Jewish, blithely allowing nazis to walk the highest halls of power in Ukraine. Again, that just beggars belief.

I'm under the impression that the Russian people are better informed generally than the folks in the DPRK. Do they have only approved sources of information or do they have access to international news? Do they know what's going on?

If Kyiv falls, will Zelensky be allowed to be taken alive? It would be easier to disappear him in a combat zone. He must be on Vlad's enemies list.

SaparotRob said:

I'm under the impression that the Russian people are better informed generally than the folks in the DPRK. Do they have only approved sources of information or do they have access to international news? Do they know what's going on?

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There are unofficial news sources in Russia but they're heavily oppressed. A day or two ago, one news media outlet asked it's readers if it should continue reporting on the Ukraine situation or stop altogether. Continuing would risk very unwelcome attention from the powers-that-be.

Russians can also access some foreign news sources but, again, they're controlled and can be turned off if officials don't like what's being written.

Undeterred, news is often passed via other means. One example recently cited was using online restaurant review websites as a means of passing along news updates. Those pesky plebian masses have a nasty habit of working around any rules the powers-that-be try to invoke.

While we've been talking about nuclear threats, what is also concerning is to what extent a cyberattack on one or more NATO members, something that Putin must be considering, might trigger Article 5.