"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (4 Viewers)

[RogerdeLluria]

Autocracies tend to make catastrophic decisions. That's the case with Putin

Lawrence Freedman: ‘Autocracies tend to make catastrophic decisions. That’s the case with Putin’

The military strategy expert and author of a new book on conflict says the flawed thinking behind Russia’s invasion stems from the inability of those at the top to take responsibility for mistakes

www.theguardian.com

 

[Admiral Beez]

Let's hope he's right

Ukraine Live Updates: Russia Opens Murder Investigation After Blast Kills Daughter of Putin Ally

"A senior Ukrainian official denied responsibility for the attack. "Ukraine certainly had nothing to do with yesterday's explosion," Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine's president, said in televised comments on Sunday morning. "We are not a criminal state like the Russian Federation, much less a terrorist one."

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Aug 21 (Reuters) - Russia said on Sunday that its Kalibr missiles had destroyed an ammunition depot containing missiles for U.S.-made HIMARS rocket in Ukraine's southeastern Odesa region, while Kyiv said a granary had been hit.

Russia's defence ministry said sea-based Kalibr missiles had destroyed a depot that also housed Western-made anti-aircraft systems.

A spokesman for Odesa's regional administration said two missiles had been shot down over the sea, but that three had struck agricultural targets.

There were no casualties, the spokesman, Serhiy Bratchuk, said on Telegram. An explosives expert and investigators were working at the granary, he said.

Reuters was not able to immediately verify the battlefield reports.

Russia's defence ministry also said its forces had destroyed two M777 Howitzers in combat positions in the Kherson region, and a fuel depot in the Zaporizhzhia region that it said was storing more than 100 tonnes of diesel fuel.

Russian missiles strike Ukraine's Odesa region

Russia said on Sunday that its Kalibr missiles had destroyed an ammunition depot containing missiles for U.S.-made HIMARS rocket in Ukraine's southeastern Odesa region, while Kyiv said a granary had been hit.

www.reuters.com

I sure hope this is Russian bluster. The Ukrainians need every missile we can ship.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Let's hope he's right

Ukraine Live Updates: Russia Opens Murder Investigation After Blast Kills Daughter of Putin Ally

"A senior Ukrainian official denied responsibility for the attack. "Ukraine certainly had nothing to do with yesterday's explosion," Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine's president, said in televised comments on Sunday morning. "We are not a criminal state like the Russian Federation, much less a terrorist one."

Aug 21 (Reuters) - The daughter of an ultra-nationalist Russian ideologue who advocates Russia absorbing Ukraine was killed in a suspected car bomb attack outside Moscow, Russian state investigators said on Sunday.

Darya Dugina, daughter of prominent ideologue Alexander Dugin, was killed on Saturday evening after a suspected explosive device blew up the Toyota Land Cruiser she was driving, investigators said.

[...]

Russia's TASS state news agency quoted Andrei Krasnov, someone who knew Dugina, as saying the vehicle belonged to her father and that he was probably the intended target.

Daughter of Russian ideologue killed in suspected car bomb attack

Darya Dugina, daughter of prominent ultra-nationalist Alexander Dugin, was killed on Saturday evening after a suspected explosive device blew up the Toyota Land Cruiser she was driving, investigators said.

www.reuters.com

It looks like Russia is trying to pin this on Ukraine in order to sap its moral standing in the West.

 

[buffnut453]

Let's hope he's right

Ukraine Live Updates: Russia Opens Murder Investigation After Blast Kills Daughter of Putin Ally

"A senior Ukrainian official denied responsibility for the attack. "Ukraine certainly had nothing to do with yesterday's explosion," Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine's president, said in televised comments on Sunday morning. "We are not a criminal state like the Russian Federation, much less a terrorist one."

It doesn't really matter if Podolyak is right. Putin can easily play this as Ukrainian terrorism aided and abetted by the US.

I hope this doesn't mark an escalation of this conflict…but i think it will, alas.

 

[SaparotRob]

"Fair and balanced" does not come to mind when talking about the Russian press. Any exhaustive research will come from the FSB.

 

[Glider]

I find it hard to believe that Ukraine had anything to do with an attack in Russia. There is no win for them if they had succeeded plus the planning and logistical challenges would be overwhelming.
That said, clearly someone did and that it the worrying thing for Putin. He himself is an impossible target but people who hate him, can hit those around him. The only thing I believe we can be sure of is that there are some serious, deep, issues and concerns around in the higher ranks of Putin and his followers.

Remember the May day flypast that was cancelled that morning after weeks of practices because of the bad weather, on a clear, still, blue sky day. It can only be because there were serious concerns that someone might have a go at Putin from the air.

All is not well at the top and I do hope our Intelligence people know what it is

 

[GrauGeist]

I would not put it past Putin to be behind this, in order to further his cause.

If the Ukrainians wanted to start assassinating top officials, they have had plenty of opportunities to strike them before now and wouldn't have had to go all the way to Moscow to do so.

 

[Dimlee]

I hope this is Russian resistance rather than Ukrainian special ops.

Darya Dugin: Daughter of Putin ally killed in Moscow bomb - report

If Ukraine starts blowing up the family members of those associated with its opponents it may begin to look like the Troubles, needlessly testing the resolve of Ukraine's backers.

I suspect false flag ops. Dugin is not a high value target for Ukraine. All possible damage was done by him already as a "philosopher" and a propagandist.

 

[Dimlee]

According to Ukraine's Embassy in Prague, donations of "1968Kč" each began to arrive to the Embassy local accounts. Nice and symbolic gesture,

 

[wlewisiii]

According to Ukraine's Embassy in Prague, donations of "1968Kč" each began to arrive to the Embassy local accounts. Nice and symbolic gesture,

Do you have a link? I'd love to share that with friends.

 

[Dimlee]

Do you have a link? I'd love to share that with friends.

Here you are.

https://m.facebook.com/pg/UkraineEmbassyinCzechia/posts/

 

[Admiral Beez]

It doesn't really matter if Podolyak is right. Putin can easily play this as Ukrainian terrorism aided and abetted by the US.

Of course it matters if Podolyak is right. Whatever Putin believes or purports is not relevant, but if the US and Euros come to believe that Ukrainian special ops are conducting terrorist attacks against civilians in Russia.… that's not good for Ukraine.

 

[buffnut453]

Of course it matters if Podolyak is right. Whatever Putin believes or purports is not relevant, but if the US and Euros come to believe that Ukrainian special ops are conducting terrorist attacks against civilians in Russia.… that's not good for Ukraine.

If this bombing was done by Ukrainian SF, then I'll eat my hat. I don't believe any western nation would believe that Ukraine could get an operative into Moscow who would have intimate knowledge of Dugin's travel plans. That's the stuff of "Mission Impossible" and other fictional "spy" stories.

The problem is that Putin will continue to control the narrative. He'll use this for internal Russian consumption to justify even more draconian laws that further restrict the limited freedoms that remain. He'll also use it on the international stage to show that Ukraine and the West are, indeed, attacking Mother Russia. It's this latter point that's so dangerous with this bombing...if Putin starts spouting that this was an actual attack on Russia, then who knows what will come next.

Take a look at the 2016 article I posted earlier. It makes it abundantly clear that, in Russia, there's no such thing as absolute truth or right. "Truth" is very much in the eye of the person conveying the message...and that means Putin and the Russian State because all media are controlled.

So I stick by my comment that it's irrelevant whether Podolyak is right or wrong. The odds of any proof (for or against) being available to western leaders are slim at best. Thus we're back to the old ideological and information war problem where the west denies involvement but Putin plays the blame game.

 

[wlewisiii]

Yup. It's a local fight that hit the wrong target.

 

[GrauGeist]

Ok, so media sources are now stating that Darya and Alexander travelled together from his home to attend a festival and she then drove home in her dad's car while he rode home in another car.

The question is, why not set the bomb at his house and get him (them) at that point. Why wait until after the festival to blow him (them) up?

 

[wlewisiii]

Slightly more interesting as far as this fat old tanker is concerned, there is video of a homebrewed Ukrainian tank destroyer made by putting a towed MT-12 ATG on top of an MTLB.

 

[J_P_C]

The T-62's thermal imaging rangefinder is limited to 800 meters or so, iirc.

t-62 have no thermal sight - just active IR sight - in fact with theoretical range limited to 800m

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I'd call the idea of Ukrainian involvement as vanishingly small. The cost-benefit analysis makes no sense at all -- as noted above, Ukraine has far too much to lose for a hit that will not have changed a single thing.

I don't think I agree with the false-flag operation theory either. If any info about such a killing of his loyal subordinate got out, I bet any plotting against him 1) would be driven to even tighter security amongst any cabal and 2) would probably be made even more urgent. It may even fully alienate some in Moscow who are already having second thoughts.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Ok, so media sources are now stating that Darya and Alexander travelled together from his home to attend a festival and she then drove home in her dad's car while he rode home in another car.

The question is, why not set the bomb at his house and get him (them) at that point. Why wait until after the festival to blow him (them) up?

Access. A vehicle parked at a large event will probably be easier to get close to. Also, how big is their house? Do they have armed security?