"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."

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Interesting Foreign Affairs article on Russian failures in Ukraine: Russia's Repeat Failures

The paragraph below summarizes the findings if you can't access the full article.

"Although Russia has had six months to learn from these mistakes, it appears poised to once again commit its depleted forces to an untenable mission: annexing and holding Ukraine's Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia Provinces, or oblasts. Holding this territory will require substantial amounts of manpower and armored equipment—particularly given that the regions have contested frontlines and that Russian forces in each experience organized partisan attacks. And Moscow has lost its most advanced equipment, for which it does not have equivalent replacements. The Russian armed forces have also suffered tens of thousands of casualties, including well-trained personnel, and its current strategy for replenishment—recruiting new soldiers from a motley mix of communities and armed groups—will not create a combat effective force. There remains, in short, a mismatch between the Kremlin's goals for Ukraine and the forces it has to deliver them."
 
J_P_C said:
some sources suggesting that they have lost nearly 80% of tanks equipped with "modern" fire control systems - most they are sending in combat right now are blind in limited visibility conditions... probably this assasement is quite optymistic but for sure orcs army is not in the shape they have been in february and this process will speed up
Click to expand...

The T-62's thermal imaging rangefinder is limited to 800 meters or so, iirc.
 
buffnut453 said:
its current strategy for replenishment—recruiting new soldiers from a motley mix of communities and armed groups—will not create a combat effective force.
Click to expand...
And yet against this motley mix we've not seen Ukraine regain territory. Hopefully the coming offensive on Kherson is the beginning of big advances for the UAF.
 
Admiral Beez said:
And yet against this motley mix we've not seen Ukraine regain territory. Hopefully the coming offensive on Kherson is the beginning of big advances for the UAF.
Click to expand...

Actually, Ukraine has regained a lot of territory. Remember Russia's attempt to capture/neutralize Kyiv in February/March? That entire region has been liberated of Russian forces. There was the offensive in the north that pushed Russian forces back across the border, plus ongoing efforts to retake Kherson (see map below - source BBC):

1660923471993.png


While I agree that we haven't seen a sweeping Ukrainian advance leading to a wholesale Russian retreat, to say that Ukraine hasn't regained territory is taking an overly negative view of this conflict. In addition, it's worth remembering that Russia vastly outnumbers Ukraine in the sheer size of military forces. It's tough to go on the offensive if you're outnumbered.

Personally, I think Ukraine is playing a very canny game and they're meeting with successes. At some point, Russia will tire of the fighting and the resultant losses that can't be replaced. The lengths to which Russia is going to replace lost forces are remarkable but I entirely agree that it won't result in a capable combat force. Arguably, the forces today are less capable than they were in February...which is perhaps why we're seeing the Russian offensive stalling and Ukraine making some inroads to recapture territory.

This is an unwinnable war for Moscow. All Ukraine has to do is not lose it, while all the West must do is avoid triggering a nuclear decision by Putin.
 
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GrauGeist said:
Add to that, Ukrainians currently in training on new weapon systems as well as new ground forces undergoing training.
All the Ukraine military has to do, is keep Russia at bay until this next wave of trained personnel is ready to take to the field in large numbers.
Click to expand...
It does remind me of the Soviet Union's experience in Barbarrosa, where they traded land for time, and then once equipped with superior kit in large numbers came back and regained all the land they'd temporarily ceded, and more. Hopefully this is Ukraine's experience too - though I'm not as optimistic on Crimea.
 
Interesting article about the wider impact of the recent Ukrainian attacks in Crimea.

Can't recall if it's been posted on this thread earlier but apparently the Russian Black Sea Fleet commander has been sacked.

www.bbc.com

Ukraine's Crimean fightback having 'psychological impact' on Russia

Western officials reveal the impact of recent Ukrainian strikes on the Russian-occupied peninsula.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
 
Thumpalumpacus said:
I don't believe most leaders in the West see this as "philanthropy" at all. I think most if not all of them realize that this is also an important point of self-interest; that stopping Putin here is vital to a peaceful international order and that failing to act now will end up in acquiescing to further autocratic demands.

As such, their duty is to explain to Western populations why this material support is necessary. The battle is over Western public opinion. If the people understand the dangers clearly, they will continue supporting the Ukrainians.
Click to expand...

Forgive my quoting myself above, but the support in the following article is not "philanthropy", this is putting your money where your mouth is:

The United States will send another $775 million in missiles, drones, vehicles and mine clearing equipment to Ukraine to help in its war with Russia as the conflict enters a near standstill, the Pentagon announced Friday.

The new assistance package will include 16 howitzers and ammunition, AGM-88 High-Speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARM), ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, 15 Scan Eagle reconnaissance drones, and armored vehicles, among other armaments, a senior Defense official told reporters.

[...]

A standout in the latest lethal aid tranche is the HARM, which can be fired from Ukrainian aircraft, have a range of at least 30 miles and are designed to find and destroy radar-equipped air defense systems. The missiles have been credited with taking out some of Russia's most dangerous weapons systems in Ukraine in recent weeks.

Also included are the Scan Eagle unmanned aerial systems — the first time the U.S. has provided the drone to Kyiv — which will give Ukrainians "better reconnaissance around the front lines," the official said.

In addition, the package will consist of 1,000 Javelins; 36,000 105 mm artillery rounds; mine clearing equipment; 40 mine-resistant ambush-protected vehicles, to allow Ukrainian troops to travel through areas rigged with mines; 1,500 tube-launched optically tracked wire-guided missiles; 2,000 anti-armor rounds; 50 Humvees; tactical secure communication systems; night vision devices; thermal imagery systems; and optics and laser range finders.


This American taxpayer fully supports it. I wish they'd send more HARMs, and the ATACMs for the MLRS units.
 
I think before we send more evil weapons of violence we acknowledge how we may have contributed to Mr. Putin's need to lash out at his neighbors. A century of othering the Russians because they had thrown off the yoke of imperialist oppression has left deep wounds that can only be healed through dialogue, and an admission that we too bear the shame for our nation's crimes against the Russian people.
Or something...
 
Greg Boeser said:
I think before we send more evil weapons of violence we acknowledge how we may have contributed to Mr. Putin's need to lash out at his neighbors. A century of othering the Russians because they had thrown off the yoke of imperialist oppression has left deep wounds that can only be healed through dialogue, and an admission that we too bear the shame for our nation's crimes against the Russian people.
Or something...
Click to expand...

On the other hand we're fighting the Man! Stand up for your rights and fight off the oppressor!
 
An overview of the recent setbacks suffered by the Russians. Rather than a lengthy quote covering some items already mentioned, I'll simply lay the link down and those interested can run it down and comment as they see fit:

www.reuters.com

Blasts, fresh drone attacks rock Russian-held areas far from Ukraine war front

The drone assaults come after explosions erupted near military bases in Russian-held areas of Ukraine and Russia itself, apparent displays of Kyiv's growing ability to pummel Moscow's assets far from front lines.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
Putler may have just realized that irradiating western Russia might have some downside. I watched a video with an expert (well, he did speak rather posh) say that there may be Article 5 implications if NATO members were to suffer collateral damage from essentially a dirty bomb. A dirty bomb acknowledged to be under Russian control.
 
Viable Strategy ?
Use some small expendable drones over Crimea to have russian air defense react and lit up their radar, getting them in harm's way.
It may be possible they already tested this over the Black Sea Navy HQ today with some smaller attack drones. their air defense was proud to have them shot down.
 
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