"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."

[GrauGeist]

Oh California is reaping the whirlwind from that new law making independent trucking illegal - they either have to sign on with a union approved trucking company, operate or of state or sell their truck.

With a stroke of a pen, 70,000 livelihoods were eliminated and our store shelves are showing it.

In regards to Russia, I feel that Putin's folly will have long term effects across the board and it won't be in Moscow's favor.
Europe is working on alternate energy sources, prospective Russian military hardware buyers will be shopping elsewhere, global corporate investors have pulled out for greener (safer) pastures and the list goes on.

Some have said that Russia's economy is stronger than ever, but with sanctions freezing their global buying power and blocking their access to much needed imports ranging from raw materials to tech components for manufacturing, I don't see how this is possible.

 

[SaparotRob]

I'm no economist but I think the ruble is artificially strong which is causing inflation in Russia. However, the Russian economy is heavily tied to oil. Russia is selling its product at a discount. When the price of oil goes down Russia is in serious trouble. If Europe caves, the price of might go down until Putin wants another piece of Novo Rus. Europe realizes it made a pact with the devil.
Sunshine does go well with a nice chemtrail, though.

 

[wlewisiii]

Tangently related to the topic, I bought a NAFO morale patch for my olive drab ball cap. Proceeds to the Georgian Legion.

 

[buffnut453]

But, sunshine is radiation!!!!!

But it's all-natural, nay organic, even. Must be good for you, right?

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Hmm - I wonder if Putin and Russia were schrewd enough to game plan the Ukraine Special Project into a calculated mobilization of NATO and disastrous embargo's that only strengthened the Ruble, and sytematically attack the Eurodollar (and US currency dominance). By Russia Central Bank valuation of gold pegged to oil as well as driving the cost of crude and natural gas globally - and shutting off fertilizer supplies - he has set the stage for a.) economic disaster in Europe, b.) massive price escalation forcing citizens to eat or freeze, c.) shut off Germany entirely across all economic sectors which will probably collapse the EU.

Meanwhile our weapons industry futrures are soaring with DoD donations of advanced weaponry from our existing readiness inventory, dumping $Billions into replenishing inventory and advanced R&D.

Our (US) Energy Grid is heavy orange alert heading to red, with a little relief due to heavy rains in last two weeks - 100 food processing plants have been destroyed, CA passed a law that Independent truckers amy no longer operate in CA all while our supply chain are toast from west coast port and food distribution constipation.

Am I reading this wrong?

Add Green zealots carrying the banner of zero carbon balance by focing farmers off diesel, onto organic with no transition grace, masive inflation, China committed to taking Taiwan, yet another bio disaster in the next best Covid/Monkeypox/whatever - to try to force mask and shot mandates.

Whatever could go wrong?

The cost/benefit sheet is relative and cuts both ways. At the same time Putin may be harming the European and American economies, he's also frittering away what military strength his nation has, and his action has engendered sanctions which will seriously impede rebuilding that strength.

I ain't gonna touch the political points you've raised. But even though Russia is weathering sanctions fairly well so far, they still are eating seed-corn. Where will their replacement tanks and aircraft come from with sanctions in place? They've already shut down or dramatically reduced tank production at their two main plants. Airplanes? Crimeny, they've had problems rebuilding their air force even before this invasion brought on sanctions.

I don't agree that they're driving the pricing of oil. This war has obviously had an effect on it, but in the last month we've seen a healthy drop in $/bbl, and the Russians will actually be hurting from this because as prices drop, so too will the subpar pricing of Russian oil bought by India and China drop, as I'm pretty sure it's pegged as a percentage of market value. That will act to reduce Russian national income even as they must now pay more for imports to the bootleggers working that market.

 

[Jabberwocky]

I do wonder how China is affording its massive military expansion. It's not as if they can sell debt to the West, and we're pulling a lot of offshore consumer goods manufacturing to elsewhere.

Because their economy has been growing at an average of 7% or 8% p/a over the past decade (compared to 2% in the US) and they've been running consistent current account surpluses for the past 20 years (2020 being the exception). So, they've got the money to do so.

China's official military spending was a little more than USD215 billion in 2019. That's less than a third of US official military spending of USD745 billion in 2019.

China has been spending LESS on its military (proportional to GDP) in the last decade than it did in the 1990s - at least officially. In the past decade, Chinese spending on its military has averaged somewhere between 1.5% and 1.8% of GDP. That's down from around 2% in the 1990s. In comparison, the US military budget was 3.1% of GDP in 2021.

Of course, 'official' numbers aren't the full story. Lots of Chinese spending on their military gets disguised as funding in other sectors. That's true of other nations as well but China takes it to another level. If you include military-aligned spending such as internal policing, state security apparatus/intelliegence and investment in dual-use R&D, you can increase total spending by anywhere from 25% to 33%.

China's armed forced budget is probably somewhere around USD260 to USD290 billion. That's still just over a third of US spending, for an economy that's 70% of its size (and catching up).

Here's an irony for you: If China was a NATO member it wouldn't have been meeting the 2% GDP spending target, so Donald Trump would have been complaining that it wasn't spending enough.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

But it's all-natural, nay organic, even. Must be good for you, right?

Right -- cyanide too is organic.

 

[nuuumannn]

Until about a year ago I also looked at an NZ site but they have gone all waka and now insist on putting as many neoMaori words in every article as they can get away with and that just makes their articles unreadable.

I have noticed this is increasing, but it is worth stating that earlier in the 20th Century, speaking Maori in public was banned and schools were not able to teach it until the 1970s, which means hearing it intermixed with English is still not common in public media in New Zealand. Race relations have moved on a bit, but there is still work to do...

Carry on, comrades...

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I don't get the antagonism against inclusivity myself. So I've got to learn a few words -- it's not a big ask, to me.

 

[Admiral Beez]

This interesting daily vid suggests that there are 28,000 Russians now stuck on the wrong side of the Dnepier River. Also suggested is that encouraging Russia to reinforce this trap was a reason for Ukraine's strong signalling and announcements that an offensive on Kherson was soon to happen.



And with much of the Russian army thus trapped, the UAF can move on the East.

In the east, Ukraine braces to launch counter-attack - BBC News

Quentin Sommerville reports from the Donbas front line as Ukraine tries to seize the initiative from Russia.

www.bbc.com

 

[Greg Boeser]

Because their economy has been growing at an average of 7% or 8% p/a over the past decade (compared to 2% in the US) and they've been running consistent current account surpluses for the past 20 years (2020 being the exception). So, they've got the money to do so.

China's official military spending was a little more than USD215 billion in 2019. That's less than a third of US official military spending of USD745 billion in 2019.

China has been spending LESS on its military (proportional to GDP) in the last decade than it did in the 1990s - at least officially. In the past decade, Chinese spending on its military has averaged somewhere between 1.5% and 1.8% of GDP. That's down from around 2% in the 1990s. In comparison, the US military budget was 3.1% of GDP in 2021.

Of course, 'official' numbers aren't the full story. Lots of Chinese spending on their military gets disguised as funding in other sectors. That's true of other nations as well but China takes it to another level. If you include military-aligned spending such as internal policing, state security apparatus/intelliegence and investment in dual-use R&D, you can increase total spending by anywhere from 25% to 33%.

China's armed forced budget is probably somewhere around USD260 to USD290 billion. That's still just over a third of US spending, for an economy that's 70% of its size (and catching up).

Here's an irony for you: If China was a NATO member it wouldn't have been meeting the 2% GDP spending target, so Donald Trump would have been complaining that it wasn't spending enough.

We don't mind if our geopolitical rivals spend less on their militaries.

 

[SaparotRob]

China is spending more than you think. For one thing, wages aren't quite as high as in the West. Their employee safety regulations may be a little less stringent as well. China saves a bunch on R&D by just appropriating Western tech.

 

[GrauGeist]

I mentioned earlier that I suspected that the Ukraine military was taking advantage of the media and was acting along the lines of Operation Fortitude.

Since Putin is working with Hitler's playbook, it would make sense that he'd fall for the same ruse...

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I mentioned earlier that I suspected that the Ukraine military was taking advantage of the media and was acting along the lines of Operation Fortitude.

Since Putin is working with Hitler's playbook, it would make sense that he'd fall for the same ruse...

And the other the other thing is that mounting the threat of a credible attack apart from one's main thrust -- even without the deception you're writing about -- is very useful as a feint. Though your post does have me wondering if they've got dummy tanks/AFVs etc to mess with photo-recon.

 

[at6]

Russia sure knows how to make dead people look good.

So that's how Putin keeps going.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I hope the Ukrainians can break the hinge between the southern and the eastern fronts, which seems to me to be their goal. There's apparently 30,000+ Russian troops on the west side of the Dneiper, and the three major bridges are unusable for unit resupply, too. Both the strategic and the operational possibilities would be beckoning to me, no doubt.

 

[WARSPITER]

Read an interesting piece on the recent history of the Russian aircraft industry under Putin.

I didn't know this but since Putin has been in charge a committee now controls what is researched and built by the various
manufacturers.

The committee or board of control is made up of non air industry members - more political probably so they have been playing
it safe and authorising more of the same for years. Sound familiar to anyone who has been involved in the industry. If it does it
probably won't be a problem to see where this has gone.

The prime example given was the SU-57. Still going nowhere after years of development while older types were still being
produced with little in the way of upgrades.

Set a committee to design a horse and you get a camel ?

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Having aviators not represented on that board is planning to fail.

 

[GrauGeist]

I hope the Ukrainians can break the hinge between the southern and the eastern fronts, which seems to me to be their goal. There's apparently 30,000+ Russian troops on the west side of the Dneiper, and the three major bridges are unusable for unit resupply, too. Both the strategic and the operational possibilities would be beckoning to me, no doubt.

Also, with the Russians massed in one area with no real maneuvering room (except to fall back), is a recipe for disaster.

Get the arty working long and start walking it in.

 

[Crimea_River]

Can you find the 5th pig?