"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (5 Viewers)

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A few weeks back I read some factoid about Russian satellites. The number listed seemed low to me. However, the Earth boundl satellites of Russia seems to be dwindling.
 
This is what surprises me the most. Russia has (in theory) one huge advantage and that is a large, comprehensive satellite system. In theory they should have been able to spot any build-up of this size. How on earth did they miss it.

I haven't read any numbers on the Ukrainian forces, but I'd think they're pretty large, to force such a hasty departure. Never mind the satellites failing to detect it, it seems that Russia can't even execute the original mission of air forces: recon by planes

I asked my son last night the over/under on how many Russian generals will be fired over this fiasco, and will we see corporals leading companies and majors leading divisions? I'm sure heads will roll in Moscow.
 
Even if the front lines were to stop now, which clearly isn't going to happen, the strategic situation for Russia would be dire. It looks as if the Ukraine now control the main roads and more importantly rail lines to the majority of the Russian forces in the East.
General Winter is coming, and I wouldn't fancy being a Russian soldier in the east with very limited, if any access to supplies. Especially over the winter period where the Ukraine have the freedom to do whatever they want.
Whatever logistical routes remain will be limited and under severe pressure. If there is one topic the Ukraine forces have become masters of, its knowing and finding the logistical weak spots, and then destroying them.
 
I'm kicking myself for dithering over what I actually wrote or "AF is low on water". GrauGeist beat me to the punch with "Operation Fortitude". I didn't want to spill the beans.
I've also noticed Ukraine has been VERY quiet in the area of maritime operations recently.

As this offensive progresses, I would not rule out something being commenced while Russia is distracted.
 
I'm kicking myself for dithering over what I actually wrote or "AF is low on water". GrauGeist beat me to the punch with "Operation Fortitude". I didn't want to spill the beans.

This underlines the Ukrainians reading the Russian psychology of warfare on a comparable level to that of either of those stratagems. Being inside you enemy's head does indeed matter.
 
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And with MLRS/MARS, those supply lines will be threatened by Ukrainians even if the Russians resort to truck convoys.
 
Wasn't it something like "AF reports that their seawater condenser has broken down?"
Yes. I was implying playing mind games with the enemy. A bit of maskirovka. I didn't want to be obvious. What I did write was in response to a post by The Admiral. Ukraine was telegraphing its moves for the upcoming Kherson offensive. I wrote "Yes, Ukraine is telegraphing its moves. Russia should watch very closely", or thereabouts.

The "telegraphing" part made me think of Midway.
 
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Speaking of maskirovka, I totally forgot about that mischievous imp Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austen, and the part he played. "Ukraine will have to reduce its goals to just take back the northern bank of the Dnipro River and Kherson City." I'm paraphrasing.
 
The Russians are beefing up defenses around the Kerch bridge.

To be honest, I'd leave it standing for now. Let the Russians and civilians use it to escape. Then, when the time comes to reclaim Crimea, there are less defenders to contend with and a reduced chance of civilians caught in the crossfire.

The bridge would be easy to block if, for some reason, Russia were to try and send reinforcements during the Ukrainians retaking Crimea, and it's a perfect killing zone.

In the meantime, keep the Red Army guessing!
 

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