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2) The Ukrainians seem to not have sufficient reserves to exploit their victory fully. That's okay. They have almost certainly assured their survival through the winter (barring unforeseen calamity, of course), during which time Ukrainian pilots will greatly advance and perhaps complete their training on F-16s, as well as the military in general receive further tranches of advanced weaponry and munitions. And the morale in the Russian army must be execrable.
There was a recent press release stating that freshly trained Ukraine soldiers are headed to Ukraine from the UK and it was a substantial amount of men.
Putin reveals China has expressed 'concerns' about Ukraine war at summit with Xi Jinping
Russia's President says Moscow backs Beijing's "One China" policy and opposes "provocations" by the US in the Taiwan Strait.www.abc.net.au
Hopefully this is another indicator of Russian desperation:
Wagner Group: Head of Russian mercenary group filmed recruiting in prison
Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered prisoners their freedom in exchange for six months service in Ukraine.www.bbc.com
I wonder if another 10-15,000 Ukranian soldiers will now rotate through the UK. Now that the training scheme is up and running I assume NATO will keep it going until Ukraine has 100,000 plus advanced trained soldiers. These will then train other Ukrainian recruits until by summer 2023 Ukraine will have half a million soldiers trained and equipped, ready to go. By autumn 2023 the place is going to be like Sparta, where every free man is a soldier.There was a recent press release stating that freshly trained Ukraine soldiers are headed to Ukraine from the UK and it was a substantial amount of men.
While I agree the 'probability' of your interpretation, let's review the bidding.KYIV, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday he understood China's Xi Jinping had concerns about the situation in Ukraine, a surprise acknowledgement of friction with Beijing over the war after a week of stunning Russian losses on the ground.
Since Russia's invasion, China has trod a careful line, criticising Western sanctions against Russia but stopping short of endorsing or assisting in the military campaign.
"We highly value the balanced position of our Chinese friends when it comes to the Ukraine crisis," Putin told Xi at their first meeting since the war began.
[...]
The Russian president's comments suggested a Chinese shift towards a more critical stance, in private at least. Ian Bremmer, political science professor at Columbia University, said they were the "first public sign of Putin recognizing pressure to back down".
"Russia has become a pariah to the G7 because of their invasion. China wants no part of that," he wrote on Twitter, referring to the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations.
[...]
In Kyiv, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, held talks with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy where she told him Ukraine's accession process to the European Union was well on track.
[...]
After a week of the fastest Ukrainian gains since the war's early weeks, Ukrainian officials said Russian forces were now fortifying defences and it would be hard for Kyiv's troops to maintain the pace of their advance.
[...]
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova had earlier warned Washington to tread carefully, saying any decision to supply Kyiv with longer-range missiles for U.S.-made HIMARS systems would cross a "red line" and make the United States "a direct party to the conflict".
Putin acknowledges China's concerns over Ukraine in sign of friction
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday he understood China's Xi Jinping had concerns about the situation in Ukraine, a surprise acknowledgement of friction with Beijing over the war after a week of stunning Russian losses on the ground.www.reuters.com
A couple of thoughts on the above article:
1) Xi almost certainly gave Putin the Chinese critique in polite but unmistakable language. Given that the Russians need to sell oil and buy chips etc, it looks to me like string-pulling. Reading between the lines, it looks like Putin got told.
2) The Ukrainians seem to not have sufficient reserves to exploit their victory fully. That's okay. They have almost certainly assured their survival through the winter (barring unforeseen calamity, of course), during which time Ukrainian pilots will greatly advance and perhaps complete their training on F-16s, as well as the military in general receive further tranches of advanced weaponry and munitions. And the morale in the Russian army must be execrable.
3) If Russia wants to pick a fight over America sending Ukraine ATACMS, fine. Let us know how that works out for you. Clearly those weapons are making a great impression upon Russian fighting forces, else they wouldn't be griping about them.
While I agree the 'probability' of your interpretation, let's review the bidding.
1.) Russia, China, US and probably UK, France and India (maybe Pakistan, maybe Iran) have a full range of offensive options avialable in the grab bag.
The grab bagtools and delivery mechanisms - independent of sane oversight (Russia is no the only entity where 'sane' is questionable'), are
AI
CBW including Covid, Smallpox, variations on Ebola, Sarin, etc., etc.
Nucs ranging from back pack to Boomers
EMP by nuc, by advanced 'Fly by'
Hacking Grid systems
Economic manipulation - financial, energy, food/fertilizer, political
Kinetic capabilities
Allies
2.) Russia has exercised 1. Kinetics, 2.) hacking grid systems, 3.) economic manipulation but has all the others available depending on will and perceived risk to Russia.
3.) US/NATO strategy that has been useful to Ukraine in DEFENSE is supply of massive weapon grab bag and 'goodwill' to sic Ukraine on Russia and bleed each other to death - with few tangible consequences
4.) US contemplating sending intermediate OFFENSIVE missile systems which by the clearest definition means NATO and US engage in WWIII kinetically against Russia by proxy with almost 100% certainty that Russia recognizes the act as an act of war.
Why does anyone think a.) Russia will gracefully accept this 'adventure' of NATO resisting the invasion of Ukraine as a simple misunderstanding of the new reality of willingness to engage Russia kinetically for a non-NATO country, when such will was not evident in Georgia and Crimea? and b.) that Russia will NOT escalate responses to see who blinks first at the implied threat of global NUC/WMD?
Reflect on absent adult supervision and clear intent from US, France, UK (with new PM), while China and India and Taiwan and North/South Korea and Japan are poised waiting for the next shoe to drop> I Don't hink China will fail to exploit the current situation with signs of Russian weakness, but any nationstate that ignores an unbalanced Leader in custody of 5000+ nucs is stupid.
Is everybody on the forum basically thinking 'whatever'?
I'm old enough and close enough to every adventure the US has embarked on from Korea through Afghanistan and still contemplating 'what was the right course of action for the People of the United States - much less for everyone else."
I believe that Russia/China axis vs Ukraine/NATO is an existential threat to civilization as we know it - but have no idea where the exit on this road to hell will show up.
3.) US/NATO strategy that has been useful to Ukraine in DEFENSE is supply of massive weapon grab bag and 'goodwill' to sic Ukraine on Russia and bleed each other to death - with few tangible consequences
If anything, Russia's blunder in Ukraine has made China step back and rethink their approach to their "Taiwan" issue.
Instead of assaulting it en masse and risking world condemnation, would they then perhaps nibble away at it instead, like Russia did with Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine (in 2014) while the world sits quietly by?
Like how Britain's fast Jan-Feb 1942 collapse in the IPTO demonstrated that much of British global power was in rapid decline, reaulting in massive geopolitical changes postwar, much of the world will no longer respect nor fear Russian military or political posturing.
BINGO!You want the truth? Follow the money.
That northward gaze of Xi must be eyeing that port facility. It will allow his navy to get around the net currently restricting China, bypassing Taiwan for now. I'd rather see Russia keep it.Like how Britain's fast Jan-Feb 1942 collapse in the IPTO demonstrated that much of British global power was a myth, resulting in massive geopolitical changes postwar, much of the world will no longer respect nor fear Russian military or political posturing.
China needs bread and circuses to keep their mob distracted. If Taiwan is untouchable due to a newly armed and united West, I see China going northward. Unlike 1941-45, no one is going to come to Russia's aid this time around. Likely China's first moves will be to strengthen relations with the 'Stans to China's West. Having broken away from Soviet/CIS rule and now that their corrupt leaders are no longer protected by a demonstrably useless Russia, the 'Stans will be looking for a strong friend.
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This news yesterday shows that China and Kazakhstan, for example are moving ahead with closer relations.
China-Kazakhstan economic links expected to see rapid development
China-Kazakhstan business cooperation is expected to experience rapid growth in the coming years, as both countries actively promote regional connectivity, the growth of foreign trade and energy-related projects to further boost their business ties, said experts and government officials.global.chinadaily.com.cn
I'd rather see Russia keep it.