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I saw this this report and it encourages my little daydream. A bunch of Ukrainian MiG-29s, armed exclusively with Soviet era missiles/bombs snake through Ruzzian air defenses and take out a power station somewhat close to Moscow and safely return. It does require a bit of incompetence on the Russians part.re
Exclusive: Russia moves missiles from St Petersburg to Ukraine
Satellite images obtained by Yle show that Russia has been transferring anti-aircraft missiles away from St Petersburg.yle.fi
The first thought that came into my mind when I saw this headline was that maybe the missiles were removed as a symbolic gesture to the politicians & political dissidents. Sot of a "fine, if you do not like what we are doing then you can be undefended agains NATO air strikes".
St Petersburg seems to be a hotbed of anti-Putin/anti-war sentiments - including at least 18 district politicians who have openly spoken against Putin.
It's not an opportunity to flee I'm thinking of. No, it's that Russia's hardier troops will give ground less readily in Kherson and Donbas. But let's see, the collapse at Kharkiv surprised many.
re
Exclusive: Russia moves missiles from St Petersburg to Ukraine
Satellite images obtained by Yle show that Russia has been transferring anti-aircraft missiles away from St Petersburg.yle.fi
The first thought that came into my mind when I saw this headline was that maybe the missiles were removed as a symbolic gesture to the politicians & political dissidents. Sot of a "fine, if you do not like what we are doing then you can be undefended agains NATO air strikes".
St Petersburg seems to be a hotbed of anti-Putin/anti-war sentiments - including at least 18 district politicians who have openly spoken against Putin.
As to Russian soldiers not having much stand and fight in them, we will have to ask the Chechen enforcers who will shoot them if they try to run.
It's the widespread and popular feeling right now. I hope the skeptics are right, but I'm not counting on a repeat of the Kharkiv collapse in Donbas. Maybe in Kherson, but only above the Dniper River.I will confess skepticism about hardy Russian troops.
It's the widespread and popular feeling right now. I hope the skeptics are right, but I'm not counting on a repeat of the Kharkiv collapse in Donbas. Maybe in Kherson, but only above the Dniper River.
But again, I hope I'm wrong and that by the end of October the UAF has liberated Kherson, Donetsk and Sievierodonetsk. This will then prepare them well for a Spring 2023 offensive to liberate much of the rest.
I still believe the the Ukrainians right when they say no negotiations until Russia has left ALL Ukrainian territory.
Possibly of interest.
Some of my fellow war gamers and I just finished a scenario designed to figure out what aircraft would be the best in terms of smallest numbers, quickest in service times, and greatest impact on the air & ground situation in Ukraine. IMO what we came up with is kind of interesting.
Basically, at a minimum in terms of numbers (and hence the least training time) and earliest in use date along with ease of maintaining numbers, our conclusion is that Ukraine would best be served by 1x F-35 (oversize at 16-20 airframes) squadron and 3x A-10 squadrons in concert with moderate to high capability drones.
The numbers were kind of astonishing re the F-35. Even downplaying some of the F-35 capabilities we found that 8-9x operational airframes at any point in time would be enough to deal with the local air superiority mission (most of the time), and the anti-bomber launched air-to-ground missile threat (again most of the time), as well as acting as mini-airborne AWACS/INTEL/Targeting platforms in support of the A-10s and ground-based guided weapon systems.
But the Ukraine AF is constantly rotating their FOBs - so there is no one single fixed location.I feel like a single F-35 squadron, along with the sustainment that needs to be in place to support it, would probably end up as the world's greatest magnet for PGMs.
If Ukraine did get a squadron and then the Russians learnt what base of operations they were using, I could see every cruise missile and long range drone remaining in the Russian inventory heading that way in very short order.