RogerdeLluria
Staff Sergeant
- 1,325
- Jul 5, 2015
"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter XBe02Drvr
- Start date
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Thumpalumpacus
Major
Parts and mechanics can be flown in. Ukraine has 7 Il-76s, roughly equivalent to a C-141. The tanks will need to be convoyed on trucks, which of course will be slower but still, I think this is more designed for the medium-term future than ploughing them into battle ASAP.
Almost certainly the reason in terms of heavy equipment -- M777s, Panzerhaubitzes, Australian armored cars, etc. I suspect your guess is close to bull's-eye.
Especially with Putin's call-up of 300,000 reservists, we can be relatively sure that this war will extend to a couple of years, barring unforeseen disaster happening to either side. Russia's reserve call-up won't hit the battlefield for at least a couple of months if not longer. They will need retraining, organizing into either newly-created units or perhaps folding into active units if the Russians can spare them from the front. They will also need to be equipped ... and it will be interesting to see how that looks.
This doesn't change my personal estimation that the recent Ukrainian success has pretty much assured Ukraine's survival into the spring of next year, at the very least.
I haven't read much about that.
Admiral Beez
Major
Yeah, that's just what Georgia needs, more Russians. Russian-backed separatists in South Ossetia and Abkhazia must be wringing their hands at the opportunity to use demography as a weapon once more.
Thumpalumpacus
Major
Spec-ops would be my guess.
manta22
Banned
Yes, sappers.
Admiral Beez
Major
You have to like this man.
SaparotRob
Unter Gemeine Geschwader Murmeltier XIII
For some reason it reminds me of C.S.S. Hunley. Manned by Skynet.
GrauGeist
Generalfeldmarschall zur Luftschiff Abteilung
Poland's port to border is more efficient.
Romania and Bulgaria are on the Black Sea, so those ports would be a no-go, plus to get material to Ukraine from the eastern Med., the only real way would be from Thessaloniki, Greece and then up through Bulgaria then across Romania. That route has decent highways, but mountainous and time consuming.
In regards to the Bulgarian and Romanian Navies, they have been active in mine sweeping coastal and shipping areas along with the Turkish Navy.
Romania and Bulgaria are on the Black Sea, so those ports would be a no-go, plus to get material to Ukraine from the eastern Med., the only real way would be from Thessaloniki, Greece and then up through Bulgaria then across Romania. That route has decent highways, but mountainous and time consuming.
In regards to the Bulgarian and Romanian Navies, they have been active in mine sweeping coastal and shipping areas along with the Turkish Navy.
Thumpalumpacus
Major
My take on the Russian call-up of reserves:
They know they don't have the combat power to defend what's left of their incursion to the east, and are likely going to send forward other active-duty units currently available for that role while the call-up will conduct hurried back-fill while training in situ where they will be deployed for that purpose. These recalled reservists likely won't be up to combat ops for at least four months while they retrain and re-equip.
The Russian hope is, I think, that by promising a longer war, they are trying to sap the willingness of NATO nations to continue arming and training Ukrainians forces, while they try to consolidate their hold over the land they do occupy right now, and use the sham referenda to justify a continuation of the war and a wearing-down of Western will. They're accelerating the referenda and issuing this call-up in order to stake a BS claim.
I think they'll have a nasty surprise as they see more Russian front-line troops chewed up in battle, which, even if successful will take a bloody nose. And how good will those reserves be? We've already seen the Ukrainians chew up a Guards tank army and a couple of Guards infantry divisions.
This call-up is also an indication that they really don't have the stomach to escalate to WMDs. Putin is risking the stability of his own regime in preference to simply follow through on his bluster. Indeed, he himself saw fit to say "this is not a bluff" regarding use of nukes. The inference is of course that he previous threats were. Maybe he's never read of the boy who cried wolf?
At any rate, it boils down to exposing more Russian troops, either first-line or reservists, to battle in the hope of dragging this war out long enough that the West tires of supporting Ukraine in its fight.
We're still not seeing any bigger commitment of Russian air force assets to support these guys, nor will we be seeing many replacements for their tank corps because even if the tanks are around and running, you're gonna need trained troops to get the most out of what is rather antiquated equipment.
It's still a hard blow for Ukraine (especially in the aftermath of the optimism inspired by their offensive) ... but I'm just not sure 300,000 is enough to man and supply a frontline that runs over 1000 km. Nor am I sure the Russians can find any way out of the pickle they're in.
They know they don't have the combat power to defend what's left of their incursion to the east, and are likely going to send forward other active-duty units currently available for that role while the call-up will conduct hurried back-fill while training in situ where they will be deployed for that purpose. These recalled reservists likely won't be up to combat ops for at least four months while they retrain and re-equip.
The Russian hope is, I think, that by promising a longer war, they are trying to sap the willingness of NATO nations to continue arming and training Ukrainians forces, while they try to consolidate their hold over the land they do occupy right now, and use the sham referenda to justify a continuation of the war and a wearing-down of Western will. They're accelerating the referenda and issuing this call-up in order to stake a BS claim.
I think they'll have a nasty surprise as they see more Russian front-line troops chewed up in battle, which, even if successful will take a bloody nose. And how good will those reserves be? We've already seen the Ukrainians chew up a Guards tank army and a couple of Guards infantry divisions.
This call-up is also an indication that they really don't have the stomach to escalate to WMDs. Putin is risking the stability of his own regime in preference to simply follow through on his bluster. Indeed, he himself saw fit to say "this is not a bluff" regarding use of nukes. The inference is of course that he previous threats were. Maybe he's never read of the boy who cried wolf?
At any rate, it boils down to exposing more Russian troops, either first-line or reservists, to battle in the hope of dragging this war out long enough that the West tires of supporting Ukraine in its fight.
We're still not seeing any bigger commitment of Russian air force assets to support these guys, nor will we be seeing many replacements for their tank corps because even if the tanks are around and running, you're gonna need trained troops to get the most out of what is rather antiquated equipment.
It's still a hard blow for Ukraine (especially in the aftermath of the optimism inspired by their offensive) ... but I'm just not sure 300,000 is enough to man and supply a frontline that runs over 1000 km. Nor am I sure the Russians can find any way out of the pickle they're in.
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GrauGeist
Generalfeldmarschall zur Luftschiff Abteilung
By the way, the Confederate Army operated the Hunley, not the Confederate Navy, so it was officially registered as the H.L. Hunley.
Admiral Beez
Major
Ukraine likely has sufficient small arms and kit to equip every adult who volunteers. Russia adds 300,000? Ukraine can likely front 600,000 more, but well equipped, with high morale, motivation and leadership. No contest.
Thumpalumpacus
Major
Agreed. And Putin's 300,000 covering a front which is as he says 1000km long , well, that's one trooper every three meters and change. Not a bad density. But then you need to think about where they're getting ammo and fuel from, and who is bringing that up?
In the big picture, he's still gonna need a bigger boat, especially when the Ukrainians are Samuel-L-Jackson-level badass.
SaparotRob
Unter Gemeine Geschwader Murmeltier XIII
If it doesn't start with U.S.S., it doesn't really matter. Don't let the Brits know I said that.
vikingBerserker
Lieutenant General
Russian Navy Kilo Class Submarines Retreating From Crimea - Naval News
The changing tide of the Ukraine War appear to have led the Russian Navy to ‘regroup’ its forces in the Black Sea. Early during the invasion they loitered boldly close to Odessa. Now the Black Sea Fleet barely sails out of sight of Crimea for fear of Harpoon missiles. Its submarines too have...
www.navalnews.com
GrauGeist
Generalfeldmarschall zur Luftschiff Abteilung
When the war started, the Ukraine armed forces had over 196,000 active personnel but what most don't hear about, is the 900,000 reserves.
I enjoy the fact that Ukraine is holding their cards close to their chest.
I enjoy the fact that Ukraine is holding their cards close to their chest.
Admiral Beez
Major
They got so much wrong back in 2019.
www.defensepriorities.org
Risks of lethal aid to Ukraine - Defense Priorities
The U.S. has no strong security interests in Ukraine Ukraine is not a U.S. ally, is distant from U.S. shores, […]
www.defensepriorities.org
looks almost like it was written by 45's aidesThey got so much wrong back in 2019.
Risks of lethal aid to Ukraine - Defense Priorities
The U.S. has no strong security interests in Ukraine Ukraine is not a U.S. ally, is distant from U.S. shores, […]
Greg Boeser
1st Sergeant
Reads like Pat Buchanan.
Admiral Beez
Major
Yeah, I was going to allude to as much, but politics has no place here.
vikingBerserker
Lieutenant General
....and yet we keep bringing it back.
