"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (1 Viewer)

[buffnut453]

According to this piece, which summarizes todays events, there are 3-5,000 Russian soldiers in Lyman. Let's hope it's the higher number and that every last one of them gets caught in the net.

The "celebration" in Moscow is also…interesting. According to one woman, she was bussed into Moscow from an outlying region and had no clue what it was all about. Really, REALLY sad when you have to coerce your "supporters."

Ukraine war: Russia completes land-grab as Kyiv's territory annexed

President Putin has sparked an international outcry by annexing four regions of occupied Ukraine.

www.bbc.com

 

[Admiral Beez]

According to this piece, which summarizes todays events, there are 3-5,000 Russian soldiers in Lyman.

I was going to ask if those 3-5,000 were Russian soldiers or mostly Donetsk Repulic militia. But with the annexation, they're all Russians. The AFU will know the difference and likely treat any Ukrainians fighting for Donetsk as the traitors they are.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

ISW had this to say yesterday:

The Kremlin's contradictory statements and procedures demonstrate the fundamental nature of the systemic weakness of the Russian military establishment that have characterized the entire invasion

I think this is an apt point. Disorganization seem rampant through multiple facets of command, whether operational, logistical, or now this Charlie Foxtrot Shanghai program. The incompetence infecting the operational arm seems pretty rampant in the support element as well. Nowhere does their military leadership pull off a decision without issues, it seems.

 

[GrauGeist]

Just imagine how more effective Russia's ground forces would be, if they actually used their missile/artillery against Ukraine forces instead of civilian targets.

Not only is a missile launched into a cafe or school a missed opportunity to eliminate a number of opposing forces, it also hardens the citizenry and the world in general.

 

[buffnut453]

Ukraine advance on Russian outpost challenges Putin’s grip on Donbas

Ukrainian troops are moving to capture the Russian-held eastern town of Lyman, threatening a new setback for Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin's campaign in the Donbas as he prepares to declare the region part of Russia.

www.reuters.com

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Just imagine how more effective Russia's ground forces would be, if they actually used their missile/artillery against Ukraine forces instead of civilian targets.

Not only is a missile launched into a cafe or school a missed opportunity to eliminate a number of opposing forces, it also hardens the citizenry and the world in general.

It's like they've never read of the WWII bombing campaigns and what they did to civilian attitudes, which generally harden the hearts of those in those conditions.

Reading today about the strike on the civilian convoy that killed 20+ and injured scores more, I read that it was hit by three S-300 SAMs. They're so desperate to kill civilians that they're resorting to SAMs for land attacks.

Shit like this is why I think Zelenskyy is right, that there's no negotiating with this sonofabitch. And all of that is of his own doing.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Shit like this is why I think Zelenskyy is right, that there's no negotiating with this sonofabitch. And all of that is of his own doing.

Agreed. And besides there's no way he can beat Ukraine now. Ukraine has the best of all worlds, they don't need to worry about the economics of war, they don't need to worry about domestically producing/financing the materials of war, and they get modern, if not the latest weaponry, a growing ammunition supply, plus satellite and signals intercept intelligence from NATO. All Ukraine needs to focus on is logistics, morale, leadership and fighting expertise…. of which they have aplenty. It's as if Ukraine has all the cheat codes and is playing in sandbox mode. Once Ukraine has sufficient arms and logistics for 1/2 million soldiers they will be unstoppable.

The big difference will be this winter, where the AFU has the warm weather clothing, weapons, vehicles, food and kit to operate and fight in all weathers. Meanwhile the Russians will be freezing and starving.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Agreed. And besides there's no way he can beat Ukraine now. Ukraine has the best of all worlds, they don't need to worry about the economics of war, they don't need to worry about domestically producing/financing the materials of war, and they get modern, if not the latest weaponry, a growing ammunition supply, plus satellite and signals intercept intelligence from NATO.

I don't see it in such glowing terms, but I agree with your point that Ukraine is going into the winter well. Their victory three weeks ago ensured their survival through the winter, no matter what, and that's a good thing.

All Ukraine needs to focus on is logistics, morale, leadership and fighting expertise…. of which they have aplenty. It's as if Ukraine has all the cheat codes and is playing in sandbox mode. Once Ukraine has sufficient arms and logistics for 1/2 million soldiers they will be unstoppable.

Yep, my impression is that Ukrainian leadership is up to the task. They've stayed a step ahead the whole way through, and that's really important in retaining the initiative.

The big difference will be this winter, where the AFU has the warm weather clothing, weapons, vehicles, food and kit to operate and fight in all weathers. Meanwhile the Russians will be freezing and starving.

Those 300k newbs are in for a treat.

 

[SaparotRob]

The big difference will be this winter, where the AFU has the warm weather clothing, weapons, vehicles, food and kit to operate and fight in all weathers. Meanwhile the Russians will be freezing and starving.

Plus the AFU has the extremely warm support of the populace.

 

[GrauGeist]

Now, since Putin is working from Hitler's playbook, we're about to see an undermanned, under supplied, ill-clothed, half starving Army get encircled during the throes of winter and get fed into the meat grinder.

This entire dog and pony show from February until now, is EXACTLY the embodiment of the saying: "he that forgets history is doomed to repeat it".

And if I have seemed to be "clairvoyant" with my past "predictions", it's not because I have a special talent to see into the future (if I did, I'd work the stock market like a Prom dress), it's because I've read the book!

Putin and Hitler both fawned over their "history", but neither one actually knew WTF they were talking about - fortunately for us (in both cases).

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

The problem with both of them is that they only have read the history they wanted to read.

We all want to tell ourselves just-so stories.

 

[WARSPITER]

The other problem with both of those people and others is that once megalomania fully sets in they start to think in terms
of being the one who is creating history - and of course all else before them becomes irrelevant.

 

[SaparotRob]

I was watching an interview with Nina Khrusheva(?), Nikita Khruschev's granddaughter. She discussed how close to Stalin Putin is. She mentioned that Khruschev is looked down upon by Putin. Something along the lines of not being despotic enough. I'm wondering if that has something to do with Putin's nuke waving. Perhaps he doesn't want to be another Nikita Khrushchev.

 

[Glider]

The other problem with both of those people and others is that once megalomania fully sets in they start to think in terms
of being the one who is creating history - and of course all else before them becomes irrelevant.

Putin's place in History is already set. Even if the fighting stopped today and whatever happens in the next six months. He has destroyed Russia's Economy, Military, Political system (such as it is), laid the east of Russia wide open to China's influence and potential takeover as well as it's historical influence overseas.

No one will want to have anything to do with Russia and nobody will be afraid of it again. Globally it's a once in a lifetime opportunity for China to fill the void and that's something few people would bet against them doing.

I am certain that Putin's place in history is set, and it isn't one that he wants.

 

[at6]

While Pootler makes his nuclear threats, he cites Hiroshima and Nagasaki as precedent for his potential use of WMDs in Ukraine. His rationale doesn't hold water since the USA was the one attacked. He is the dirty bastard who has done the attacking. If he does decide to go nuclear, I hope the damn things are in such disrepair that they explode on the launchers.

 

[GrauGeist]

While Pootler makes his nuclear threats, he cites Hiroshima and Nagasaki as precedent for his potential use of WMDs in Ukraine. His rationale doesn't hold water since the USA was the one attacked. He is the dirty bastard who has done the attacking. If he does decide to go nuclear, I hope the damn things are in such disrepair that they explode on the launchers.

Putin is banking on the legend of the mighty USSR and it's terrifying Arsenal - what he is either oblivious or ignorant of, is that in the years since the Cold War, technology has advanced to the point that *if* a nuke is launched, countermeasures are deployed at the same time the launch source becomes a target via satellite telemetry for a retaliatory strike.

His nuclear sabre rattling also fails to take into consideration that if one nuclear power is engaged by Russia, he's also engaging all of that particular nation's nuclear allies.

His ass is currently getting kicked by Ukraine, but he's in for an epiphany if he f**ks around with the big league boys.

 

[wlewisiii]

I believe the phrase you're looking for is "Fuck Around and Find Out".

He's been finding out a lot

 

[GrauGeist]

I believe the phrase you're looking for is "Fuck Around and Find Out".

He's been finding out a lot

There is a club called "F**k Around And Find Out", Finland is a charter member and Ukraine is a recent addition.

But the U.S. and UK, are top tier - there is no FAAFO, it's "give your soul to Jesus because your ass is mine".

 

[WARSPITER]

Putin's place in History is already set. Even if the fighting stopped today and whatever happens in the next six months. He has destroyed Russia's Economy, Military, Political system (such as it is), laid the east of Russia wide open to China's influence and potential takeover as well as it's historical influence overseas.

No one will want to have anything to do with Russia and nobody will be afraid of it again. Globally it's a once in a lifetime opportunity for China to fill the void and that's something few people would bet against them doing.

I am certain that Putin's place in history is set, and it isn't one that he wants.

To us yes. To him the necessary 'sacrifices' must be made (not his of course) to achieve the ultimate goal (whatever that is).
People like this surround themselves with sycophants and devious/nasty people who are willing to do whatever they are told
in order to benefit.

This creates a bubble which someone else will inevitably burst. Then the rats will leave as usual. Hitler in the bunker is a perfect
example of this. "Um, Adolf mate, have to pop home as I think I left the oven on" (didn't know your home address was Argentina).

The problem is that as things go from worse to baddest the blame sets well and truly in. Again, Hitler - "The German people have
failed me therefore all can die along with me". In Putin's case there must be a happening within Russia to remove him before he
gets to the everyone else has failed me stage. Hitler didn't have a red button to push.

As Shakespeare didn't say " Prick me and do I not burst". With these people prick is the operative word.

 

[buffnut453]

This is interesting...Turkey has denounced Russia's land-grab in Ukraine and refuses to recognize Russian ownership of the 4 "referendum" regions:

Turkey's foreign ministry has condemned Russia's declared annexation of four occupied regions of Ukraine - echoing the condemnation by Turkey's Nato allies on Friday.

A ministry statement says Turkey "did not recognise Russia's annexation of Crimea in an illegitimate referendum in 2014 and has emphasised its strong support to Ukraine's territorial integrity, independence and sovereignty on every occasion.

"In accordance with this stance adopted in 2014, we reject Russia's decision to annex the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaphorizhzhia regions of Ukraine.

"This decision, which constitutes a grave violation of the established principles of international law, cannot be accepted."

Turkey has tried to mediate between Ukraine and Russia, and its diplomacy with the UN led to the recent deal to free up Ukrainian grain exports via the Black Sea.