"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (6 Viewers)

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Germany will send some Leo2 to the Czechs so they can send more of their T-72s to Ukraine.

For those crying to send M1/Leo2 to Ukraine:
Those tanks are 15-20 tonnes heavier than common soviet tanks, engines are ~50% more powerful so require more fuel and the M1 gas guzzler some on top of that.
Ukraine probably lacks recovery, road transport and bridging equipment suitable for those loads (assuming rail cars would not have problems).
The Marshy/Rivery lands in eastern Ukraine may not be the best terrain for those heavy tanks.
 
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Denniss said:
Germany will send some Leo2 to the Czechs so they can send more of their T-72s to Ukraine.
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I'd assumed they'd all been sent already. How many operational/restorable T-72s (ERA-equipped or otherwise) can possibly be left within NATO's borders?
Did anyone ask the AFU if these logistical and terrain challenges are unsurmountable? Much of this war's tank battles seem to take place on/near roads.

I assumed that every German tank from Pzkw.III onwards was designed with rolling across Ukraine (or like terrain) in mind.
 
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I know little about Tanks but it is possibly simpler to train a man to load shells into a gun, than maintain a (presumably) fairly complex auto loading system which has rusted up
 
Admiral Beez said:
I'd assumed they'd all been sent already. How many operational/restorable T-72s (ERA-equipped or otherwise) can possibly be left within NATO's borders?
Click to expand...

T-72 and derivatives supplied or committed to Ukraine:

Poland: At least 230 T-72M1, undisclosed number of PT-91 (further upgrade of T-72M1, some complete new builds)
Czech Republic: At least 40 T-72M1, with additional tanks purchased from Bulgaria (thought to be some of Bulgaria's 44 T-72M1s). Czech Republic getting Leopard 2A4s as replacement from Germany
Romania: 30 T-72M1s supplied,
North Macedonia: At least 8 of 30 T-72As, possibly all 30 now supplied

Outstanding stocks:

Slovakia: At least 20 active T-72M1s, with around 10 stored. Reportedly offered to Ukraine, but also reportedly held up over dickering about German support
Hungary: As many as 35 active T-72M1s, with about 80 stored. Active T-72s due to be replaced with Leopard 2A4s and 2A7s. Tanks unlikely to go to Ukraine, due to Victor Orban's dickishness
Bulgaria: Somewhere between 120 and 160 in service and up to 250 stored. Mix of T-72As and T-72Ms. 40+ in service tanks undergoing major modernisation.
Slovenia: 54 M-84A4s in storage. Had been planned to be swapped for stored Marders from Germany. Not sure what happened.
 

And the Russians are running through their remaining stocks of PGMs targeting civilians, meaning that when they want to provide air-support for combat forces, they'll be more likely to have to use dumb, iron bombs, with all the danger that implies for pilots and expensive aircraft.

It could well bite the Russians in the ass going forward, especially considering American resolution to provide more and better SAM systems. Hard to do effective stand-off attacks with 250-kg dumb bombs, those pilots will have to get somewhat into the weeds to be useful. Good flying weather will be rare in the next few months, further exacerbating this trend.
 

I think this is the reality behind the matter. The Russians have already lost many if not most of their trained front-line troops who started the war. These new troops, coupled with Belarusian troops, would not be wisely used to execute active ops, given that the Ukrainians already rejected the first Russian drive which was after all composed of their front-line peacetime units.

So this is likely an attempt to distract the Ukrainians from the drive on Kherson, and further advances in the Donbas. I don't imagine the Ukrainians stripped Kyiv itself of defensive units, anyway. And -- now the Russians, with their logistical genius, now have to provide for 60,000 more combat troops on the march on an entirely separate axis of advance?

For those reasons, I think this is a weak feint.

The alternative is that this mass of troops might try to roll up the Ukrainian-Polish frontier in order to interdict Western arms and ammo supplies. That would perhaps be a wiser, but still risky, move, because they're more susceptible to isolation and defeat. It's still very vulnerable to logistical interdiction.

My prediction: they're a big dog-and-pony show.
 
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I posted that interview with Petraeus the other day, and it's worth watching in full. I think he's right, that the West will use asymmetrical, non-nuclear, but still decisive force inside the Ukrainian theater to put an end to the invasion.

The potential for nuclear escalation still exists, to be sure. And that's very uneasy.
 
In this case I expect Crimea to be forever lost. The West will settle for Russia out of all Ukraine minus Crimea.
 
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