"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (16 Viewers)

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The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next several weeks but may struggle to withdraw in good order if Ukrainian forces choose to attack. Ukraine's Southern Operational Command stated on October 21 that Russian forces are "quite actively" transferring ammunition, military equipment, and some unspecified units from the Dnipro River's west bank to the east bank via ferries.[1] The Southern Operational Command added that Russian forces deployed 2,000 mobilized men to hold the frontlines and are continuing to shell Ukrainian positions, likely in an effort to cover their withdrawal.[2] Ukrainian military officials reported that the Russian occupation administration is preparing the evacuation of imported Russian specialists, Ukrainian collaborators, and Kherson's banking system.[3] Russian occupation administration in Beryslav and humanitarian facilities in Kherson City also reportedly ceased operations.[4]

 
The Russians seem to think an offensive will come at Kherson, but I'm watching the probing going on along the front between Zaporizhia and Donesk, where Russian held land is narrowest.
If an offensive is launched there, a drive to Mariupol would effectively split Russian forces in two and allow Ukrainian elements a three sided front around Kherson as well as getting in range of Crimea for better artillery coverage.
 
The Russians seem to think an offensive will come at Kherson, but I'm watching the probing going on along the front between Zaporizhia and Donesk, where Russian held land is narrowest.
If an offensive is launched there, a drive to Mariupol would effectively split Russian forces in two and allow Ukrainian elements a three sided front around Kherson as well as getting in range of Crimea for better artillery coverage.
The Ukrainans rarely do what is expected or suggested. So, while a continued slow grind will be seen in the south, anywhere but Kherson is where we'll see the next big AFU push.
 
Old howitzer + Starlink + UAV. And brave Polish volunteer.
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/starlink-has-become-indispensable-for-ukrainian-gunners/
Original interview (Google translated):
 

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