"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (10 Viewers)

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Of course. Talking with my son last night about the Armata "deployment", I pointed out that the reliance on wonder-weapons is indicative of desperation. I just don't regard drones as wonder weapons in this era.
 

Yeah, no one is saying that drones are a war-winner. Indeed, I've already mentioned how wunderwaffen are probably more indicative of desperation on the part of Russians.

But drones are without a doubt a force-multiplier that any military with a little sense and a little money can leverage to make asymmetric warfare even more effective. And let's face it ... the Russians are behind the eight-ball at this point, they have to use every.single.advantage they can find.

I doubt anyone here is under any illusions about either manned or unmanned aircraft holding ground.
 
Thumpalumpacus said:
But drones are without a doubt a force-multiplier that any military with a little sense and a little money can leverage to make asymmetric warfare even more effective.
Click to expand...
Ukrainian drones like the Bayraktar seem more capable, definitely a force multiplier. But the Russian drones seem to be mostly dumb, gps guided flying bombs rather than direct control offensive weapons, essentially modern day V1 rockets sent irreversibly to a set coordinates.
 
An estimated 50% of Ukraine's power grid has now been destroyed.

Go to 3:23. Ukraine is at risk of losing its gains. What is NATO willing to do?


My vote? First, dramatically and asap this month increase through whatever means Ukraine's air defence. Next, give Ukraine every tool they need to defend Bahkmut and to cross the Dnieper to commence an invasion of Crimea before Christmas.
 
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That's not my understanding of how the Russians are using the Iranian drones, which seem able to loiter, and have much more accuracy than any V-2 I've read of. I'm sure some shivering Ukrainians could outline this point far better than I am able to do.


In recent weeks these Iranian drones have been used to target critical energy infrastructure in Ukraine.

The Iranian drones are known as a "loitering munition" because they are capable of circling for some time in an area identified as a potential target and only striking once an enemy asset is identified.

They are small, portable and can be easily launched, but their main advantage is that they are hard to detect and can be fired from a distance.

Russia to build attack drones for Ukraine war with the help of Iran, intelligence assessment says | CNN Politics

Iran and Russia have reached an agreement to begin the production of attack drones in Russia, according to a new intelligence assessment from a country that closely monitors Iran's weapons program.
www.cnn.com
 
I'd like to see Japan and the US, whose firms produce much of the global production of portable generators, albeit likely with Chinese inputs, ship five thousand units to Ukraine before end of November.

Top Portable Generator Companies, Manufacturers and Brands

By the IMARC Group, the top portable manufacturing companies are Briggs & Stratton, LLC, Cummins, Honda Motor, Eaton Corporation PLC, and Generac Power Systems.
www.imarcgroup.com
 
 
a few bits of info.

Re the MQ-1 drone

This type of drone is considered to be vulnerable to modern air defense systems. While it can easily fly high above the reach of MANPADS and similar vehicle launched SAMS, if it does so it becomes vulnerable to the more sophisticated heavy SAMs such as the S-400 as well as GCI by RF intercepters. At 5000 ft and higher over the Kherson area the SAM batteries in Crimea can see and have a good chance of shooting down the MQ-1 drones. The same circumstances exist in the Eastern Ukraine theater.

I suspect that we are not planning on sending/deploying them (if there is need to) until the end game - when even if they are lost in numbers their effect will still be worth the possible losses. The potential effect of the various EW system payloads would be catastrophic to RF communications and possibly to any of the less than most sophisticated radars. Use of the MQ-1 drones for ground attack of any type would be like using Mjölnir to hit eggs while risking it being destroyed in the process.


re portable generator sets

There are "large numbers" of generator sets and power supplies of various types using various fuel types already in the pipeline. Small numbers have already arrived in theater though I do not know how many are in place/service. There is currently a large aircraft sitting at an airfield 'somewhere in the midwest' being loaded full of Cummins/Onan generators sets. (The MN National Guard has really taken the attack on Ukraine personally.)


re the overall situation in the South of Ukraine

US/NATO COMINT and HUMINT is reporting that the Russian high command are trying to figure out if/how they can hold Crimea - the current expectation within the high command is that they will not be able to do so unless there is a major setback for the Ukraine forces. It is not thought that said setback can occur in the South.


re the attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge

The Russian FSB investigation into the Kerch Strait Bridge attack has revealed that the explosion was the result of a truck bomb, with the explosive/bomb hidden under rolls and pallets of industrial plastic sheet. (The ephemeral objects seen in the video footage that are being blown by the wind across the bridge after the explosion are sections of plastic sheet, some on fire.) Although the Russian propaganda has been saying that the truck bomb attack was orchestrated by the Ukrainians, US/NATO COMINT and HUMINT are reporting that in reality the FSB does not have any clue who was responsible. All they know for sure is that the owner and driver were both Russian citizens - the owner was 25 yo Samir Yusubov and the driver was the owner's uncle 52 yo Makhir Yusubov. The FSB has no evidence the the owner was involved. The owner's uncle has not been seen since the blast.
 
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As for fuel to run generators, I sense that Ukraine is not short on fuel. The cities may be dark, but we see lots of cars driving around, and the AFU mechanized and artillery units seem to be constantly on the move as they avoid counter battery fire.

It would be a real kick to Putin if China, likely a world leader in generator production sent five thousand units to Ukraine as humanitarian aid.

When this war is over I expect China will be ready to swoop in to lead the rebuilding of Ukraine's infrastructure, electricity and transport systems. That will be a problem for the West who've been funding Ukraine's surivival.

Ukraine’s China Problem, and How To Solve It

In a recent Wall Street Journal column, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy extolled his country’s potential to become "a major hub for information technology." Certainly, all civilized people are rooting for Ukraine to repel the Russian invasion and have its war-shattered economy roar back...
www.heritage.org
 
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Admiral Beez said:
When this war is over I expect China will be ready to swoop in to lead the rebuilding of Ukraine's infrastructure, electricity and transport systems. That will be a problem for the West who've been funding Ukraine's surivival.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure that after this experience with one despotic country that Ukraine would be willing to mortgage much in relying upon the Chinese despots. China will certainly try to elbow in on the money, but I think Ukrainians will be suspicious of such efforts -- and rightly so. The Belt-and-Road initiatives have already shown how China is using financial weaponry to effect ... and the Ukrainians are not dumb.
 
GrauGeist said:
European nations lending a hand in rebuilding Ukraine will also benefit in respect to increased material sales as well as jobs.
Click to expand...

I was just reading an article about Czech and Polish industry ramping up production in support of Ukrainian needs that are, yes, providing jobs and income to those countries even as they provide wherewithal to UAF in defeating the Russians. They're building mainly ammo, but also chassis.

One more example of Putin forgetting that the Law of Unintended Consequences kicks ass.
 
After the dust settles, Ukraine will need buildings, roads, bridges, water/sewer line, power line, automobiles, trucks, emergency vehicles and more.

Many of these items can be bought in the EU - the steel for new buildings, bridges and transmission lines for example, could be from India, Europe, U.S. or perhaps China.

Putin not only effed himself, but has created a potential boost to the EU's economy.
 
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