"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."

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So we appease Putin and tell the Ukrainians they can only shoot at Russians if the Russians shoot first?

And perhaps limit the Ukrainians to only three rounds in their magazines, too?

The only way Russia can save face now, is to arrest Putin, withdraw from Ukraine and work out a deal for reparations while turning over those that are guilty of atrocities at the same time.
 
Nothing the Russians can do will change the impression they've made now. Sure, they can make reparations and prosecute their criminals, but no country around them will trust them for a long, long time. It's something I said much earlier in this thread, Putin has squandered what little credibility they have on the diplomatic circuit, and their behavior here in Ukraine will mark them for decades to come.

It will take more than regime change, it will require systematic change, and I won't be holding my breath.
 
Thumpalumpacus said:
It will take more than regime change, it will require systematic change, and I won't be holding my breath.
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How do you sell systemic change to a people who've been conditioned over the past millennium to exist under one tyrannical regime after another, and haven't a clue how to operate responsibly in a free society? Can tomorrow's strongman be any improvement over today's?
 
It's also worth remembering that a high proportion of Russian IT professionals have left for other countries as their skills are easily transferable. In addition Russia has used their skills offensively for a number of years, giving other countries time to learn their ways, yet have not been on the receiving end of such activities until now. Defending against cyber attacks takes skill, time, money (in both personnel and infrastructure costs) and practice. None of which Russia has in any great amount.

Unless they are very careful Russia could be in a situation, where to reuse a famous quote, they sowed the wind and may well reap the whirlwind.
 
The likeliest path to be rid of Putin is another tyrannical regime takes over. That's how Russia got out of the disaster that was the First World War, with the 1917 Revolution seeing the tyrannical Tsar thrown out and replaced by the equally tyrannical Communists, who being more focused on terrorizing their domestic population quickly reached out to the Germans to end their war, on terms quite favourable to Germany.

If Ukraine takes Melitopol as now predicted in Jan-Feb 2023, and then begins to move into Crimea through March-June, all whilst holding back the enemy in the Donbas, there will be revolutionary-minded Russians who believe the Moscow regime must be violently toppled, and once achieved may come to terms with Ukraine in order to focus on their murderous rampage against Russia's domestic politicians and perceived power holders. That's the path Russian history suggests, IMO.

I foresee a similar path for Iran, with the praetorians topping the ayatollahs and establishing a military dictatorship, Saddam-style. Like the Russians, the Persians have lived under autocracy for most of their history.
 
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Even the Nobel Peace Prize winners are against a settlement that doesn't have Russia totally out:

Nobel Peace Prize winners blast Putin's invasion of Ukraine

The winners of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize from Ukraine, Russia and Belarus have shared their visions of a fairer world during an award ceremony and denounced Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine
abcnews.go.com


 
Admiral Beez said:
Sweden's wish to join NATO may free up SAAB to offer the Gripen to Ukraine.
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I fail to see how one is linked to the other. The video is interesting and I believe the Gripen would be good for Ukraine but I don't see how Sweden's joining NATO has an effect unless one were to argue that they could give up existing aircraft in the short term and have their gap covered by other NATO member. If that were the case, then the same would apply to any other NATO members especially those bringing types such as the F-35 already since that theoretically frees up existing types such as F-16.

the video at least does highlight the need for training etc. One thing I haven't seen mentioned though is the associated need to pull pilots and related out of the current fight for months on end to presumably retrained. Is this soemthign Ukraine can afford in the immediate future?
 
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What will also be interesting in the future once Ukraine rids itself of the Russian invaders will be what the Ukrainian Armed Forces look like post war. They have had to deal with a mixed bag of systems and weapons during the war and have been taking everything offered. Post war though they will want to reduce down to/standardise on only a couple of systems for logistics/cost reasons. There will also be a massive clean up required. It will be interesting to see where this goes and what they select and why.
 
KYIV, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Russian forces pounded targets in eastern and southern Ukraine with missiles, drones and artillery, Ukraine's General Staff said on Monday, while millions remained without power in subzero temperatures after further strikes on key infrastructure.

[...]

In its daily update on the military situation, Ukraine's General Staff said its forces had repelled Russian assaults on four settlements in the eastern Donetsk region and on eight settlements in the adjacent Luhansk region.

[...]

Ukraine has said Russian forces are suffering huge losses on the eastern front in brutal fighting that is also taking its toll on its own troops.

[...]

Many members of Russia's private Wagner military group were killed when Ukraine targeted a hotel in the town of Kadiivka in Luhansk where they were based, the exiled governor of the Russian-occupied region, Serhiy Gaidai, said on Sunday.

Ukrainian forces had also hit a recreational centre used by Russian troops in Melitopol in the southeast, the city's exiled mayor, Ivan Fedorov, said.

Reuters could not independently verify the latest battlefield accounts.

Russia fires scores of missiles in one of its biggest attacks on Ukraine

Russia has rained missiles on Ukrainian energy infrastructure since early October after several battlefield defeats, but Friday's attack seemed to inflict more damage than many others, with snow and ice now widespread.
www.reuters.com
 
GTX said:
I believe the Gripen would be good for Ukraine but I don't see how Sweden's joint NATO has an effect
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AIUI, Sweden's strict neutrality has precluded it in some cases from offering combat aircraft. But with Sweden a NATO applicant and now providing Ukraine with other weapon systems, any political barriers within Sweden to Gripen exports should be moot.

But I may not be understanding that right. The below article suggests that rather than barriers of neutrality, Sweden is just a poor salesman of its fighters compared to the USA and France.

Why Can’t Sweden Sell Its Fighter Jets?

When it comes to flaunting its defense industry, Stockholm is shy—and it’s hurting Swedish companies and handing lucrative contracts to competitors.
foreignpolicy.com
 
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GrauGeist said:
I suspect that it's more of a nation's needs and interoperability than poor salesmanship.
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The article made some good points though. For example, when a national government buys the Rafale or F-16, they're buying it with the participation of the French or US government, not solely from Dassault or Lockheed. But when a government buys a Gripen, they must deal directly with SAAB, with limited to no participation of the Swedish government. Per the article, governments prefer to buy weapons with the participation of the supplier's governments, rather than working through the intricacies of a foreign manufacturing firm's purchasing department.
 
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