"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (9 Viewers)

[Thumpalumpacus]

I'm sure he is - a former low ranking KGB officer that worked his way up to imperious leader would not happen if his head was full of pixie dust and unicorn droppings.

At this stage in his life, basing our assessment of his grip on reality by his actions thirty years ago may not be accurate. Aging has a way of disconnecting folks from the reality they grew up in, whether that be from onset senile dementia or an inability to adapt to changes as one's views ossify.

That said, I am not sure one way or the other how connected Putin is to reality. That depends on how much of his bullshit he actually believes, and who here can say what that answer is?

 

[Glider]

I'm sure he is - a former low ranking KGB officer that worked his way up to imperious leader would not happen if his head was full of pixie dust and unicorn droppings.

He is fully aware of his failure to subdue Ukraine and his bluffs have been called every step of the way. He's used to spinning the situation that gives the illusion that he's in control and will keep trying until that bluff wears out, too.

But Jinping, who also uses the same tactics, can instantly spot bullshit a mile away, because he too, is a master of control.

So Putin is going to have to speak to him in real terms. Especially since Communist China knows Russia's position as a world power has eclipsed and has no real bargaining power if China puts him to the test.

It would be interesting to know what price China will get for any help that Putin gets. He is in no position to negotiate and will do literally anything to stay alive both politically and medically.

 

[SaparotRob]

I'm seeing Haishenwai as a PLAN naval base.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I'm seeing Haishenwai as a PLAN naval base.

Basing rights, perhaps? Cession of the base itself would probably be a bridge too far for Putin.

 

[GrauGeist]

Basing rights, perhaps? Cession of the base itself would probably be a bridge too far for Putin.

Cinsidering how China has a hard-on for "one China" and reclaiming "lost lands", I'd bet good money on China eyeing both Vladivostok and "outer Manchuria".

There was also that issue of the border along the Ussuri river.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Cinsidering how China has a hard-on for "one China" and reclaiming "lost lands", I'd bet good money on China eyeing both Vladivostok and "outer Manchuria".

There was also that issue of the border along the Ussuri river.

China may be eyeing Vladivostok and a chunk of Siberia based on historical claims, but could Putin cede those and survive politically? The infosphere in Russia has many hard-liners who are already very critical of the Russian execution of ops in Ukraine, while still on board with the war aims of the Putin government in Ukraine ... for now. These are factors Putin must consider.

Should he make such huge concessions to the Chinese in pursuit of equipment for immediate war aims, I think -- and this is only my guess, nothing more -- that they'd turn on him for trading one part of Russia for what they see as another. In domestic Russia, wouldn't it look like a wash? Or even a tacit admission of subservience?

The various border clashes Russia and China have had also underline the fact that while they may have made a production-number out of "unlimited support" in the February summit, both sides may actually be approaching this from a perspective of Realpolitik or quid pro quo. That's what I think such a trade of territory for Chinese support would boil down to, and again, could Putin survive it? It would essentially be acknowledging Russian subservience to China, and that would not be a good look, politically, in any authoritarian country, especially one already experiencing internal dissent over a failing war.

That's my read on it, at least. Happy to read any rebuttals or other differing views, of course. It's a complex issue and no one here (and that includes me too) can be sure, in my opinion.

 

[GrauGeist]

China just recently sailed it's fleet close to Guam in a show of force - if they're willing to eff with the U.S. Navy, as powerful as it is, Russia in it's current state, would not have a chance.

Of course, there would be some "reason" (overtly/covertly) for the territorial grab, but I really doubt that Vlad the inhaler would give up any Russian territory willingly but is by no means capable of stopping China if they do.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

China just recently sailed it's fleet close to Guam in a show of force - if they're willing to eff with the U.S. Navy, as powerful as it is, Russia in it's current state, would not have a chance.

Of course, there would be some "reason" (overtly/covertly) for the territorial grab, but I really doubt that Vlad the inhaler would give up any Russian territory willingly but is by no means capable of stopping China if they do.

Agreed, Russia couldn't stop it if it came down to brass tacks, but I don't think Putin would accede to it willingly; I think he'd force China's hand if that was actually a Chinese demand. I think he's looking out first and foremost for himself, and conceding a large swathe of Russia for temporary help in this war would likely be seen for the bloodless defeat it would be, internally. His regime likely wouldn't survive it, and I bet that's a factor in Putin's calculations.

ETA: Of course, Putin could try to spin it as China joining in on the international "attack" on Russia.

ETA2: I don't see China politically as being willing to paint the only friendly semi-superpower into a corner, either.

 

[GrauGeist]

To be honest, there is a local military that holds more potential than Russia, ranks in tje world's top 5 and is often overlooked: India.

China would be better off kicking Russia to the curb and wooing India.

 

[SaparotRob]

I can't see Putin willingly give up territory in the east. I believe the four occupied Ukrainian Oblasts have "disappeared" from official Russian maps, if so, that's a tacit acknowledgement they're about to lose territory in the west. One of the revolutions Russia had (one of the smaller ones) happened over the loss to Japan. Putin woke up the West and Xi must really hate that guy. Putin has brilliantly pulled military hardware from the east and Xi must be looking at Vladivostok. That would suck for Japan, AUKUS and Canada if PLAN has more exit points into the Pacific. And a real nice harbor. I don't know how in touch with reality Putin is, whether by delusion or seclusion but he must know it's falling apart. There will be flowery rhetoric but this "more than friends" thing means China does what is best for China.
Without even bothering with any thought of unintended consequences, I was thinking India for UN Security Council after Russia is removed. That should piss off China for a while

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

To be honest, there is a local military that holds more potential than Russia, ranks in the world's top 5 and is often overlooked: India.

China would be better off kicking Russia to the curb and wooing India.

Xi has clearly missed that bus, considering the Chinese provocations on that border over the last few years. Of course it would be smart money, but Modi has based his own power in India on appealing to nationalist sentiment, and isn't likely to trade that away for vague promises from Beijing, given the bloody and at times fatal fighting on the frontier.

We in America should nurture our relationship with India. They're very important given China's moves in the South China Sea, aimed at throttling the Straits of Malacca, it seems to me.

China would have to cross the tallest mountain range in the world to get at India on the ground. That's why India is busy building its navy, and this works towards stability insofar as as a regional power India seems willing to patrol and police the ocean named after their country. Chinese expansionism southward faces serious geographic hurdles on land.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Without even bothering with any thought of unintended consequences, I was thinking India for UN Security Council after Russia is removed. That piss off occupy China for a while

It's a shame there's no protocol for removing and replacing a sitting Security Council power, or at least requiring an SC member to recuse from voting on its own actions. Russia should not have veto-power over any resolution condemning its own war crimes.

 

[Greg Boeser]

The Permanent Members would have it no other way. You can talk about democracy, equality, and self-determination all you want, but the imperial powers are more equal than others.

 

[GrauGeist]

The UN was established by the primary victors of WWII, so that core membership would be hard to disestablish.
I am not well versed in the UN's charter, but I don't see why a resolution can't be passed to remove a member from the security Council by a unanimous vote.

 

[Admiral Beez]

We in America should nurture our relationship with India. They're very important given China's moves in the South China Sea, aimed at throttling the Straits of Malacca, it seems to me. China would have to cross the tallest mountain range in the world to get at India on the ground.

It goes both ways. With a near permanent collapse of their pal Russia's power and influence, and China's expansion into the I/O, India needs to get in the West's good books. They're making some progress.

US stands with India after joint military exercises, says 'None of China's business'

After China stated the exercises in Auli, which is about 100 kilometres from the border, violated the spirit of two border agreements, India's foreign ministry responded harshly on Thursday. India's foreign ministry said, "India exercises with whomever it likes, and we do not grant other parties...

www.timesnownews.com

India, UK hold two-day joint naval drill in Indian Ocean

NEW DELHI: The Indian Navy and the Carrier Strike Group HMS Queen Elizabeth of the United Kingdom’s Royal Navy conducted a two-day Passage Exercise in the Bay o

www.newindianexpress.com

India and EU conduct joint naval exercise in Gulf of Aden

India and the European Union have carried out a joint naval drill in the Gulf of Aden to improve interoperability among the forces.

www.naval-technology.com

Now, there's one thing India can do today. Offer two hundred of their fully operational Russian-made T-72s to a "scrap" merchant in Morocco, for a quick flip to Ukraine.

The Indian T-72 Ajeya Tank - TankNutDave.com

The Indian T-72 Ajeya Tank is a licence manufactured Russian T-72M1 started in the late 1970’s. Some 1700 have been delivered to the Indian Army.

tanknutdave.com

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

It goes both ways. With a near permanent collapse of their pal Russia's power and influence, and China's expansion into the I/O, India needs to get in the West's good books. They're making some progress.

US stands with India after joint military exercises, says 'None of China's business'

After China stated the exercises in Auli, which is about 100 kilometres from the border, violated the spirit of two border agreements, India's foreign ministry responded harshly on Thursday. India's foreign ministry said, "India exercises with whomever it likes, and we do not grant other parties...

www.timesnownews.com

India, UK hold two-day joint naval drill in Indian Ocean

NEW DELHI: The Indian Navy and the Carrier Strike Group HMS Queen Elizabeth of the United Kingdom’s Royal Navy conducted a two-day Passage Exercise in the Bay o

www.newindianexpress.com

https://frontline.thehindu.com/dispatches/indian-navy-conducting-joint-exercise-with-eu-navies-in-the-gulf-of-aden/article34855664.ece

It's a multilateral world, to be sure. We'll be seeing alliances dance and shift for a while as everyone sorts out the fallout of Russia's massive failure and what it means for the international order, I suspect. The only sure bet is that Russia will be out in the cold, cap in hand and begging, five or so years from now. They've squandered the major asset of a superpower, credibility, in this imbroglio.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I am not well versed in the UN's charter, but I don't see why a resolution can't be passed to remove a member from the security Council by a unanimous vote.

You can't have a unanimous vote without everyone's vote, including Russia's.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

The UN was established by the primary victors of WWII, so that core membership would be hard to disestablish.
I am not well versed in the UN's charter, but I don't see why a resolution can't be passed to remove a member from the security Council by a unanimous vote.

There's no such mechanism, just the same as while many of us would love to evict Turkey from NATO, there's no clause allowing for it.

 

[GrauGeist]

It's a sticky situation, but not impossible.

It could lead to long term implications, though.

The UN is about as worthless as tits on a Nun, in any event.

Can Russia Be Removed from the U.N. Security Council?

Created to maintain global peace and stability, the council is powerless as one of its permanent members wages a brutal unprovoked war in Ukraine.

diplomaticacademy.us

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

It's a sticky situation, but not impossible..

The fox has a vote on defending the henhouse, and we have no means to take that vote away.

Just as NATO should have, every joint organization needs to have an expulsion clause. The UN doesn't have any mechanism to remove a SC member.