"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (21 Viewers)

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I was trying to think of a way to explain what I view as the primary obstacle to Switzerland supplying Ukraine with war material, and noticed this statement in the video up-thread:

"If Switzerland wants to be neutral, it would have to treat all warring parties, including Russia, equally when it comes to arms exports."

This says it better than I can and should explain the conundrum they operate under, and the problem with people wanting them to supply Ukraine.
 
ThomasP said:
I was trying to think of a way to explain what I view as the primary obstacle to Switzerland supplying Ukraine with war material, and noticed this statement in the video up-thread:

"If Switzerland wants to be neutral, it would have to treat all warring parties, including Russia, equally when it comes to arms exports."

This says it better than I can and should explain the conundrum they operate under, and the problem with people wanting them to supply Ukraine.
Click to expand...
FoULhZ-XgAwA3DE.jpg
 
GTX said:
www.abc.net.au

Russian reinforcements pour into Ukraine ahead of anticipated new offensive, local governor says

Desperate for Western military aid to arrive, Ukraine anticipates a major offensive could be launched by Russia for "symbolic" reasons around the February 24 anniversary of the invasion, as the war reaches a pivotal point.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
Click to expand...
I'm giving the Russians better than zero odds of taking some serious ground within the next 30-45 days. NATO's dithering on long range precision artillery/rockets, SAMs, IFVs, and modern tanks, combined with every NATO politician now announcing the training and planned delivery of these systems, has presented Putin will a must-take, narrow timeline opportunity to do serious damage to the UAF before these new NATO-supplied weapons are in front line use in the late spring or early summer. By the first week of March the Russians are going to rush forward with everything they've got - likely bringing forth the thus far mostly absent Russian airforce, plus every land attack capable missile they can obtain. I expect another rush on Kharkiv, if only diversionary.
 
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Admiral Beez said:
I'm giving the Russians better than zero odds of taking some serious ground within the next 30-45 days. NATO's dithering on long range precision artillery/rockets, SAMs, IFVs, and modern tanks, combined with every NATO politician now announcing the training and planned delivery of these systems, has presented Putin will a must-take, narrow timeline opportunity to do serious damage to the UAF before these new NATO-supplied weapons are in front line use in the late spring or early summer. By the first week of March the Russians are going to rush forward with everything they've got - likely bringing forth the thus far mostly absent Russian airforce, plus every land attack capable missile they can obtain. I expect another rush on Kharkiv, if only diversionary.
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Could be. But such a rush forward will decimate (more) the russian army to such an extent that I doubt it could repel the ukrainian counterattack with modern western weapons.
 
Escuadrilla Azul said:
Could be. But such a rush forward will decimate (more) the russian army to such an extent that I doubt it could repel the ukrainian counterattack with modern western weapons.
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Agreed. But Putin has no choice. If he waits until autumn 2023 to regroup and plan a proper offensive he'll be facing hundreds of NATO-made MBTs and IFVs, plus likely F-16s, Gripens, Mirages and Apaches, supported by ATACMs, SAMs, top-tier attack drones, and every PGM the West can provide. The Kerch bridge has at best another sixty days to live, likely half that. Putin must take the offensive before Ukraine is reinforced. If the Russian army is destroyed, so be it, because don't forget that Russian territory itself is sacred, Ukraine can't take a step into Russia.

Putin doesn't care if half a million or more Russians are killed and wounded in Ukraine - that's less than 1/3 of 1 % of Russia's 144 million people. They lost 27 million in WW2 and still the government survived.
 
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Admiral Beez said:
I don't see why the Hungarians and non-NATO Serbs are fans of Putin. The latter should know how Russia treats any non-allied neighbours.
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I would point out that Putin and his allies come from the KGB in a time when they were actively (and effectively) courting and wooing Western business, technology, and politicians who thought that the relationship with Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union would benefit them and the West. Some of that thinking was idealistic and some for personal benefit. The KGB bought that influence during the downfall of the Soviet Union and the period following that. Some of that influence is still there. The KGB were very good manipulators. Putin thought that this influence, along with other factors, would be enough to give him a manageable situation even after he pissed off the West post-invasion. I would recommend the book "Putin's People" for a more in-depth look at these machinations.
 
ThomasP said:
:) Heaven forbid that anyone should be allowed to operate under views of morality and responsibility? integrity? (not sure what the best words are) that are not the same as your's or mine.
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Anyone is allowed to operate as he wishes, but they should abide to the consequences:
- Maybe some countries decide to go rogue and send the weapons anyway without the consent of Switzerland. After all, MY country weapons where bought and paid with MY taxes, no Swiss can come to ME to say what I can or cannot do with MY taxes. What are they going to do, invade Italy or France or Spain?
- They will lose (they are already losing) many defense contracts with 3rd countries. It's not very wise to buy weapons you cannot actually use freely.
- In a globalized world, maybe some Swiss defense companies move its headquarters to another country to escape or mitigate the loss of defense contracts.

That being said, despite being surrounded by NATO, no NATO country is going to invade Switzerland because they refuse to give permission to those same NATO countries to transfer weapons of Swiss origin to Ukraine. Wonder what will happen to a country the size of Switzerland if it was totally surrounded by Russia and refused to fold to Russia demands. See the difference?
 
RogerdeLluria said:
Wonder what will happen to a country the size of Switzerland if it was totally surrounded by Russia and refused to fold to Russia demands.
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Can you imagine Russia, assuming they have the place surrounded, trying to invaded Switzerland? If the Russians had trouble taking Finland, Switzerland will be a disaster. We don't need to worry for the Swiss, they kick everyone's ass, and if they can't, they finance both sides.
 
buffnut453 said:
Zelenskyy visits UK, as the patter's training programme for Ukrainian personnel is extended to include fighter pilots (possible harbinger of future changes on provision of modern combat aircraft?):

www.bbc.com

President Zelensky in first UK visit since invasion of Ukraine

The Ukrainian leader meets PM Rishi Sunak and King Charles, and will make a speech to Parliament.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
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The RAF has 30 Tranche 1 Typhoons with an OSD of 2025.
Its been suggested that as they have plenty of airframe life left, they could be transferred to Ukraine. US would have no veto as the Typhoon is outside ITAR.
 
WAFU said:
US would have no veto as the Typhoon is outside ITAR.
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This demonstrates the importance of having your own military tech and production. If ever the RAF is all F-35s, Washington will direct British foreign policy on such matters. Hopefully we see the Tempest step in. As for the Eurofighter, can the ofttimes obstructionist Germans block the Typhoon due to tech sharing? It would look sweet in Ukrainian colours.

0c988cc68f61065d493c879499a04b13.jpg
 
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Admiral Beez said:
This demonstrates the importance of having your own military tech and production. If ever the RAF is all F-35s, Washington will direct British foreign policy on such matters. Hopefully we see the Tempest step in. As for the Eurofighter, can the ofttimes obstructionist Germans block the Typhoon due to tech sharing? It would look sweet in Ukrainian colours.

View attachment 706090
Click to expand...


Not the RAF ones.
 
Russian military command may be rushing to launch a large-scale offensive operation to conquer Donetsk Oblast in an unrealistic timeframe and likely without sufficient combat power. The UK MoD assessed on February 7 that Russia has highly likely been attempting to launch a major offensive operation to reach the Donetsk Oblast administrative borders since early January 2023 but had only been able to gain several hundred meters of territory per week.[3] The UK MoD attributed such a slow pace to Russian munitions shortages and a lack of maneuver units that are necessary for a successful and rapid offensive. The UK MoD noted that Russia is unlikely to build up the combat power necessary to substantially affect the outcome of the war while Russian military command continues to demand for unrealistic and sweeping advances. ISW similarly assessed on January 28 that Russian leadership may be once again planning a decisive offensive based on erroneous assumptions about Russian military capabilities and likely lacks the combat power necessary to sustain more than one major offensive operation.[4] ISW also observed the Kremlin signaling preparations for an early 2023 offensive in December but assessed that the time and space relationship may hinder Russian rapid and large-scale advance aspirations as Ukraine heads into a muddy spring season unsuitable for maneuver warfare.[5]

Institute for the Study of War

This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org
 
RogerdeLluria said:
Anyone is allowed to operate as he wishes, but they should abide to the consequences:
- Maybe some countries decide to go rogue and send the weapons anyway without the consent of Switzerland. After all, MY country weapons where bought and paid with MY taxes, no Swiss can come to ME to say what I can or cannot do with MY taxes. What are they going to do, invade Italy or France or Spain?
- They will lose (they are already losing) many defense contracts with 3rd countries. It's not very wise to buy weapons you cannot actually use freely.
- In a globalized world, maybe some Swiss defense companies move its headquarters to another country to escape or mitigate the loss of defense contracts.

That being said, despite being surrounded by NATO, no NATO country is going to invade Switzerland because they refuse to give permission to those same NATO countries to transfer weapons of Swiss origin to Ukraine. Wonder what will happen to a country the size of Switzerland if it was totally surrounded by Russia and refused to fold to Russia demands. See the difference?
Click to expand...
If it were totally surrounded by Russia, it would have been absorbed sometime before the 17th Century
 
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