"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (6 Viewers)

[Thumpalumpacus]

The Russians are in a much better manpower position, enjoying a >4:1 advantage over Ukraine pre-war population of ~40million. And since the war began Ukraine has lost somewhere between 7-10 million to outwards migration. If this is a war of attrition, which by all appearances it is, then Ukraine is in a very disadvantageous position.

The problem with Russia's manpower is that they're woefully trained and equipped.

You say the supply and equipment issues are neutral at worst but I see no way for that to be true. Russia has a large domestic arms industry that is producing its munitions, repairing its tanks, ect. Ukraine has a much smaller arms industry that relies on imports of shells, bullets and all matter of war material. They have to send many of their tanks and artillery pieces to Poland for repair. And they are reliant on fuel imports as well.

Uralvagon has greatly reduced its AFV output, and largely given its workforce the task of repairing damaged units.

The Kremlin Wants "Uralvagonzavod" to Repair Tanks 24/7 But There Are Not Enough Workers | Defense Express

Therefore, it is necessary to put either pensioners or generally untrained people behind the machines

en.defence-ua.com

Furthermore Ukraine is dealing with very serious disruptions to its rail and electrical grid which place further difficulties on supplying the front, by comparison the Russian trains are still running, they have no power issues, ect.

Even with all those trains running, the Russians can't seem to get their logistics in order.

 

[Admiral Beez]

What happened to France's proposal to send Mirage fighters to Ukraine? Macron seems to drop these ideas, such as those on the Lecerc MBT and then walk away.

France Is Considering Transferring Fighter Aircraft To Ukraine

The Ukrainian Air Force says that talks also involve the possible transfer of advanced Rafale multirole fighter jets.

www.thedrive.com

 

[SaparotRob]

Why drive a Peugeot when you can drive a 'Vette?

 

[WARSPITER]

Russia started this war with 2600 operational tanks. They have lost close to half in around twelve months of operations.
Annual tank production including upgrades is only 200 at most which is untenable given the losses.

Another year at this rate and they will be able to field around 300 at most.

Belarus has already handed over 122 T-72A tanks (original weaker version). Russia is also fielding T-62's which are not upgraded
and would not pass evaluation as a modern MBT. Why is this happening given the supposed number of tanks in reserve ?
Basically the reserve tanks have been sitting for years and will be missing a lot of parts, especially those which are worth money.

Upgrades and new vehicles will be difficult as fire control computers, thermal imaging systems and so forth are not produced in
Russia and due to sanctions will not be available.

Compare this mess to the production capability of NATO suppliers. Apply the same for aircraft and you can see why drones are coming
from Iran.

Any advances by Russia take them further away from supply bases while Ukraine receives equipment and supplies round the clock.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

And further to the issue of production:


Russia has acknowledged for the first time that it doesn't have enough equipment for mobilized soldiers in its war against Ukraine.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday that there are issues with equipment for the hundreds of thousands of men being sent to fight in Ukraine under President Vladimir Putin's partial mobilization decree.

Peskov said a newly-formed council created by Putin is working on resolving problems with equipment. "Vigorous measures taken to rectify the situation are already yielding the first positive results," he said.

Regional authorities are working on providing "the missing gear," Peskov said, noting that Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov "is personally responsible for this" as part of Putin's new council.

Russia admits it's running out of equipment for mobilized soldiers

Regional authorities are working on providing "the missing gear," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

www.newsweek.com

Also, an interesting op-ed from a fellow at Rand can be read here.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Why drive a Peugeot when you can drive a 'Vette?

Right now they're driving a 1970s Moskvič. If no one is offering 'Vettes, take the second hand 1988 Mirage, or Peugeot.

Let's remember how well the Israelis in their Mirages cleared the skies of MiGs and Sukhois.

 

[wlewisiii]

View: https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1623740936055406595?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

 

[Escuadrilla Azul]

What happened to France's proposal to send Mirage fighters to Ukraine? Macron seems to drop these ideas, such as those on the Lecerc MBT and then walk away.

France Is Considering Transferring Fighter Aircraft To Ukraine

The Ukrainian Air Force says that talks also involve the possible transfer of advanced Rafale multirole fighter jets.

www.thedrive.com

Maybe only the first kick of the ball to send it to the pit.

Shortly after that modern fighters were not off the tablet, like Typhoons tranche 1.

 

[Marcel]

Why drive a Peugeot when you can drive a 'Vette?

Because a Peugeot can go around the corner while a Corvette can only drive straight

 

[wlewisiii]

Sean McCabe (@[email protected])

Attached: 1 image From geraschenko_en on the bird site. Ukrainian Soldier going home from the front on the train back to Kyiv with his new friend. Slava Ukraini

universeodon.com

 

[Glider]

I'm still waiting on Russia to make good their threats of "dire consequences" to Finland for applying to NATO.

Of all the Kremlin's threats, this the one I really want to see.

Ok, well that or Israel, if there's a second choice.

I am tempted to add Poland to the list. They are certainly acting as if they are up for it

 

[Glider]

What happened to France's proposal to send Mirage fighters to Ukraine? Macron seems to drop these ideas, such as those on the Lecerc MBT and then walk away.

France Is Considering Transferring Fighter Aircraft To Ukraine

The Ukrainian Air Force says that talks also involve the possible transfer of advanced Rafale multirole fighter jets.

www.thedrive.com

I don't think the AMX10 light tanks ever made it either

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I am tempted to add Poland to the list. They are certainly acting as if they are up for it

FAAFO.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I don't think the AMX10 light tanks ever made it either

I don't believe those were endlessly dangled, but were sent soon after they were proposed. There are three categories it seems of military aid to Ukraine: there's those that are proposed but will not be sent ever or until the war's over, likely the F-16; those that are proposed, denied and then eventually sent, like the Leopard 2 tanks (or perhaps your AMX10s); and third, those that spare the endless chatter and after a short preparatory phase just get sent, such as the thousands of MANPADS and MANPATS sent from Feb 2022 onwards.

Air power seems to be a line NATO is reticent to cross. After eleven months of fighting the only western-designed manned aircraft sent to Ukraine are a trio of retired, and stripped out former FAA Westland Sea Kings. I wonder what will be the next manned aircraft to Ukraine from the west. The Mirage would be good, but I think it's more likely going next be another rotary, maybe old UH-1 Iroquois or Twin Hueys. Ukraine's best chance for additional fighters for now is for their backers to scrape up more MiG-29s from the globe.

 

[RogerdeLluria]

What if some of those guns are inexplicably lost and surprisingly recovered by some Ukrainian farmer?

Switzerland rejects Spain's request to send Swiss-made anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine

Switzerland said on Friday it has rejected a request from Madrid to allow Spain to re-export Swiss-made anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Air power seems to be a line NATO is reticent to cross. After eleven months of fighting the only western-designed manned aircraft sent to Ukraine are a trio of retired, and stripped out former FAA Westland Sea Kings. I wonder what will be the next manned aircraft to Ukraine from the west. The Mirage would be good, but I think it's more likely going next be another rotary, maybe old UH-1 Iroquois or Twin Hueys. Ukraine's best chance for additional fighters for now is for their backers to scrape up more MiG-29s from the globe.

I believe Biden will do the "no, until yes" thing with F-16s, just as he did with M-1s -- especially now that UK has signed off on training Ukrainian pilots on Eurokit. Without trying to go political here, our Administration seems unwilling to lead the way, but is content to let others break the ice and then sending our own stuff in.

 

[GTX]

I believe Biden will do the "no, until yes" thing with F-16s, just as he did with M-1s -- especially now that UK has signed off on training Ukrainian pilots on Eurokit. Without trying to go political here, our Administration seems unwilling to lead the way, but is content to let others break the ice and then sending our own stuff in.

Indeed - might be another one where the UK says "we're providing a token force of Typhoons" and then the floodgates open for others to offer F-16s etc.

 

[GTX]

UK to offer to train Ukrainian fighter pilots, will 'look' at potential jet transfers - Breaking Defense

Fighter jet training offer comes as three other European nations announce they'll send more than 100 Leopard tanks to Kyiv.

breakingdefense.com

 

[GTX]

Russian missiles fly close to NATO airspace as attacks target Ukraine's critical infrastructure

Russia unleashes a new wave of missile strikes on critical infrastructure in Ukraine, causing explosions in the capital Kyiv and hitting cities across the country.

www.abc.net.au

 

[GTX]

Putin's shaking his nukes again, sigh.

Russia will step up nuclear warnings after prospect of British jets to Ukraine, expert warns

The Russian Embassy in London has warned Britain's decision could have "military and political consequences for the European continent and the entire world”

inews.co.uk

It is beginning to sound like Hitler and his miracle weapons doesn't it...