"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."

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My guess, based on this openness of plans is that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will lead off at anywhere BUT at Bakhmut.
 
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If it was me, I'd be attacking southward out of Zaporizhzhia. Aim would be to create a rupture towards Melitopol, with the option of continuing south and sealing off the land bridge between the Dnipro and Sea of Azov, hooking West towards Kherson or heading East towards Mariupol.

Zaporizhzhia is served by three major rail lines and two major highways for supply, while Russian forces have much longer ground lines of communication. Russia also has constrained supply lines - just a single main direct rail line and one indirect (via Crimea), along with one major highway for supply.

The ground to the south is relatively flat and open, and I suspect Western MBTs (and their better thermal/sights compared to most Russian MBTs) would have an advantage in such terrain.
 
Perhaps Orban is just posturing to his master knowing full well Putin ain't going anywhere.
 
It's a big front. Ukraine will attack where opportunity presents itself. This will force Russian forces to redeploy to that area. Not a capability the Russians do well. Then the UFA will strike elsewhere. I've read and agree with all comments about where Ukraine will move. It is in what order that the UFA will keep everyone guessing.
 
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My guess, based on this openness of plans is that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will lead off at anywhere BUT at Bakhmut.
Do you really expect Ukraine to adhere to their long established pattern of "threaten here, attack there"? C'mon, you wouldn't want them to act predictably now, would you? Just think, if the offensive that rolled all the way to the Black Sea were to start by overrunning the Russians in Bakhmut, wouldn't that put a twist in Putler's knickers?
 
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I totally agree with you, but if push comes to shove and they found themselves against a T62 or T55 then they would be more than capable of holding their own. I believe this happened a number of time in Iraq
 
Nahh, they will just turn the tank around to show the side and rear of the tank.
 

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