More reports of incremental Russian success in Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the last week. And some local Ukrainian counterattacks as well. Things are delicately poised at the moment.
Around Bakhmut, Wagner forces have taken parts of the central section of the city, pushing in from the south and southeast. They have also extended their advances to the north west of the city, but have been blocked from several attempts at encirclement. To the west/southwest of Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces made some advances which improves the security of their supply lines.
At Avdiivka, Russian forces made some advances westward and southwards around Kamianka. Russian forces also made progress Vodyane around March 19-21 as an attempted end run around established defenses, but at the cost of heavy losses (again). Ukrainian forces then counterattacked against the stalled Russian forces last week, pushing them back in several places.
On a wider level, there are more indicators that Russia's force advantage in artillery continues to ebb. The combination of wear & tear on artillery systems from high volume fire, ammunition shortages and losses from Ukrainian counter-battery fire has seen the number of Russian fire missions fall by 50% since the start of its winter offensive in mid February.
Ukraine has claimed it has destroyed more than Russian 300 tube artillery systems and 60 MLRS systems since the start of March. Since the start of the year, it has claimed 675 tube systems and 100 MLRS destroyed.
Russian tactics appear to be adjusting (possibly in response to recent losses). Russian artillery has been shifted somewhat further back from the front lines. While this hurts accuracy, it's also seen losses claimed by Ukraine fall rapidly in the last 10 days or so.
This might indicate a new Russian sensitivity to losses. Russia has lost at least 700 tube artillery systems and 200 MLRS systems since the start of the war (Ukrainian claims are for close to 2700 tube systems and 500 MLRS systems), and who knows how many losses are out there but undocumented.
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