"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (7 Viewers)

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Though to be fair that narrative is mainly for domestic consumption. You can bet that the video footage taken by passers-by (at 2:30 AM, lol, "I'm just out for a walk videoing the Kremlin" would probably land one in jail) is being plastered all over Russian television. The Russian populace will not be allowed to forget this.
 
Russia (as well as the Soviet Union) has not fought a war against a super power since 1945.

Since then, they have grown bold through their successful subjugation of small nations and their constant saber rattling against powerful nations which has become background noise.

However, Putin and his noisemakers would be in for a soul-shaking epiphany if they do draw the U.S. into a slugfest.

It would be short, brutal and 100% unmistakable that they are dealing with a peer and not a small nation with a population comparable to that of the state of California...
 
Here here. Usa is having real wars on and off. Be it with very strict rules that mostly do not favour them. Politics etc. You can say a lot about the forces but not that they will be fighting only with there willies out when it counts.
 
Partly for domestic but also partly for countries outside of the 'West" = there is a lot of parts of Africa, Sth America and other areas which are hiring the Russian narrative.
 
I echo his skepticism of weather forecasters.
Your comment reminded me of the scenes from David Haig's Second World War drama Pressure. I thorouhgly enjoyed the production.


I expect the weather is one of the reasons the major counteroffensive has not started. The AFU need dry ground for tanks and clear skies for recon. With this in mind, flawed, unreliable science or not, I expect both Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyi are keeping close connections with the chaps at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center and associated government offices. Much like how Dr. James Stagg's forecast changed the course of history, there will be someone senior at the Ukrainian center who has to give the best forecast they can.
 
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Partly for domestic but also partly for countries outside of the 'West" = there is a lot of parts of Africa, Sth America and other areas which are hiring the Russian narrative.

There's useful idiots everywhere, to be sure, but I'd bet that ISW got it right -- this is for domestic consumption, perhaps to prepare the citizenry for a further round of conscription, and to buck them up for more extended privations. That it might have positive repercussions overseas is gravy.
 
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No doubt they're tracking the weather and adjusting plans accordingly; they'd be fools to not do so. Look at the one-month delay to Barbarossa, mostly imposed upon the Germans by a prolonged rasputsitsa in 1941.

Only a fool ignores the weather when it comes to military planning. Unfortunately, that doesn't make forecasting any more accurate.
 
Indeed there are useful idiots, though I wouldn't be so dismissive of the impact of the pro-Russian messaging in other parts of the the world who often already view the likes of the USA, Europe and similar in a less than favourable light. If they are only hearing pro-Russian messaging this just strengthens that and then provides ripe conditions for further trouble down the track. It also provides fertile ground for the likes of China to move in.
 

I doubt China wants to move in to wherever, except maybe Central Asia. But sure, other nations would like to see a Russian victory. I don't know that this advances that narrative, insofar that, if true, this attack bespeaks a woeful incompetence in defending even their own capital and seat of government.
 
You might be surprised: Global China: Regional influence and strategy

But we risk going off topic further.
 
While my initial assumption was "too bad they didn't succeed", there is a possibility the whole thing could have been a false flag.

After all, it would allow all of the following
  1. Escalation in Ukraine
  2. Justification to crack down on dissidents at home
  3. Justification to engage in increased censorship
An eruption like Yellowstone would probably affect everybody in the Northern Hemisphere (and possibly the Southern). In an ironic twist, the Russians had actually proposed firing an ICBM at Yellowstone to set it off a couple years back.
 

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