"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (40 Viewers)

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My worry is that US interest in supporting Ukraine will take a dramatic and negative turn on 20 Jan 2025. Ukraine's supporting nations, Zelenskyy, Putin and Xii must all be aware that a change in the White House can change everything in this war. With this in mind, Zelenskyy has about eighteen months max to liberate all he can.
 
looks like list of deadly accidents in VKS for today is expanding - 1xMi28, 1xMi8, 1xSu35, 1xSu34 and probably additional Su25. Im thinking about possible reincarnation of Alexander Vraciu - it seems to confirm all russian stories about practicing black magic by Ukrainians...
 
Admiral Beez said:
It's a deadly habit.

But seriously, I wonder if there were VIPs in that helo to justify Ukrainian SOPs convertly within Russia to strike. You don't want to kill Gerasimov or Shoigu, as they're a big asset to Ukraine.
Click to expand...
If I had to bet my money I'll put it on friendly fire. Those Vodka bottles sent as a good will gesture to Russian A/D crews are paying off
 
From ISW:

Ukrainian forces have made gains northwest of Bakhmut in localized counterattacks as of May 12. Geolocated footage posted on May 12 shows Russian forces fleeing Ukrainian artillery fire on the southern bank of the Berkhivske Reservoir, about 4km northwest of Bakhmut.[1] This footage visually confirms claims made by a number of Russian milbloggers that Ukrainian forces made gains northwest of Bakhmut in the area between Bohdanivka and Berkhivka.[2] One Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th Army Corps, Northern Fleet) lost their positions in the area between Hryhorivka and Dubovo-Vasylivka (about 6km northwest of Bakhmut).[3] Several Russian sources warned that Ukrainian forces may be attempting to encircle the Wagner Group within Bakhmut.[4] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Priogozhin emphasized that Ukrainian forces are approaching Berkhivka and claimed that Ukraine now holds positions within 500m of Bakhmut's northwestern city limits.[5] Russian milbloggers additionally reported that Ukrainian troops are counterattacking towards Khromove (3km west of Bakhmut), Bohdanivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut), and Klishchiivka (6km southwest of Bakhmut).[6]

[...]

Ukrainian and American officials stated that Ukrainian forces have not yet started the planned counteroffensive. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on May 12 that Ukrainian forces are still conducting defensive operations, which sometimes include counterattacks and other unspecified active actions.[14] A senior US military official and a senior Western official stated on May 12 that Ukrainian forces have started conducting "shaping" operations in advance of the counteroffensive.[15] Western reporting on this subject notably contradicts Russian sources, many of which have claimed the counteroffensive is officially underway.


Institute for the Study of War

This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.
www.understandingwar.org

CNN is reporting explosions in Luhansk as well, but it's very nebulous.
 
... possibly more a reaction to what those soldiers have been indoctrinated to believe -their treatment by the enemy.
Kipling exhorted the British trooper in Afghanistan to "save the last round for yourself".
In Manchria, June-September, 1939, the Japanese took very few prisoners, because many Russians were terrified of being a Japanese POW.
The 'death over captivity" mentality is as old as military culture, IMO.
 
J_P_C said:
View attachment 720609

how it happen it may be just speculation - anyway good news...
clearly missile hit...

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1657345778421997576
Click to expand...
It's interesting to contrast the tactics of Ukrainian chopper pilots (hugging the ground, having to pull out to pass vehicles on the highways....) with Russians (tooling along like they haven't a care in the world....). On the whole, the refusal of the Russian armed forces to learn the hard lessons of combat is utterly baffing
 

All true, but bear in mind as well that among ground troops, some of the fastest-traveling news is the treatment of PWs. And given their absolutely lousy performance in Ukraine, I think it's very fair to be skeptical of their having suicidally-high motivation.

Of course, none of us can know.
 

If the footage was in Bryansk Oblast, they're in "friendly" airspace.
 
And finally for now:


WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. Abrams tanks needed for training Ukrainian forces have arrived in Germany slightly ahead of schedule and are on their way to the Grafenwoehr Army base where the training will begin in two to three weeks, U.S. officials said Thursday.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told the Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee that the U.S. had moved "a number of tanks over into theater" so the Ukrainians could begin training on them. By the time they complete the training, expected to last about 10 weeks, the Abrams tanks currently being built for the Ukrainian forces will be ready, he said.

A U.S. official said the 31 M1A1 Abrams tanks needed for the training arrived at the port in Bremerhaven, Germany, last weekend and they will get to the base by early this coming week. Their arrival at Grafenwoehr is a couple of weeks ahead of the schedule that was mapped out when military leaders from around Europe and elsewhere met in Germany last month to discuss Ukraine's needs for the war against Russia.


The tanks the U.S. is providing Ukraine are being built to its military's specifications and will get to Ukraine by early fall, just as the troops are finished with their instruction. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to provide details of the delivery not publicly released.

US Abrams tanks for training Ukrainian forces arrive in Germany ahead of schedule

U.S. officials say the Abrams tanks needed for training Ukrainian forces have arrived in Germany slightly ahead of schedule, and are on their way to the Grafenwoehr Army base where the training will begin in two to three weeks. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin tells the Senate Appropriations...
apnews.com
 
Warspite63 said:
True ... but I think they need to revisit their definition of 'friendly'. Much of the footage I've seen of low-flying Ukrainian helicopters appears to be well behind the lines as they are dodging civilian vehicles on the road. That seems ...prudent
Click to expand...

Playing [American] football as boy, my dad always told me, "practice like you play and you'll play like you practice" -- i.e., don't half-ass it just because it's not the real game.
 
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