"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (42 Viewers)

GTX said:
financialpost.com

Three myths about the global energy crisis

Russia is not winning the battle for supplies nor disrupting efforts on climate change and clean power. Find out more.
financialpost.com financialpost.com
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I do look forward to a future where the West no longer relies on failed Russian and other autocrats, failed Latam states and Islamists for its energy needs. Russia is foolishly pushing us all in that direction, when fossil fuels will be as relevant as whale oil. The Russians, Nigerians, Venezuelans, Arabs and the rest of this dirtbag crowd can suck it.
 
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Got the patch I mentioned :)
IMG_20220907_164502980_HDR.jpg


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Admiral Beez said:
On the latter, if Taiwan is denied them, China will look northward to its demonstrably incompetent and weak neighbour. In China's mind, if Russia cannot roll over Ukraine, they do not deserve peace and security in the east.
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And the other point is that China's military is largely unblooded, making a salt-water amphibious invasion terribly risky. Meanwhile, they've likely got a pretty good intel picture of Russian capabilities, and even if Ukraine succumbs the Russians will be pretty busy fighting the inevitable insurgency -- which has already started. And while Taiwan has national-prestige issues attached, Irkutsk and Siberia have plentiful resources to pay for the odd adventure or two.

The only real drawback -- and it's a big one -- is the spectre of nuclear war with Russia.
 
Admiral Beez said:
I hope the UAF don't end up with a long line of trucks snaking behind them like the Russians had in March.
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It's a better season for logistics; the rainy season hasn't set in yet, and this last winter was mild enough that the ground wasn't frozen in March; it was muddy for the Russian offensive. This ground is dry and solid. now.

And -- my thinking is that the Ukrainians have a lighter logistical tail than the Russians due to interior lines. Combine that with nice, solid ground, and weakened, poorly-motivated Russian forces manning very long defensive lines. It won't be easy, and probably not completely successful, but I think the Ukrainians are doing the right thing by racing the autumn rains and pegging out claims before the weather shuts down mobile warfare for a few months.
 
Thumpalumpacus said:
It's a better season for logistics; the rainy season hasn't set in yet, and this last winter was mild enough that the ground wasn't frozen in March; it was muddy for the Russian offensive. This ground is dry and solid. now.

And -- my thinking is that the Ukrainians have a lighter logistical tail than the Russians due to interior lines. Combine that with nice, solid ground, and weakened, poorly-motivated Russian forces manning very long defensive lines. It won't be easy, and probably not completely successful, but I think the Ukrainians are doing the right thing by racing the autumn rains and pegging out claims before the weather shuts down mobile warfare for a few months.
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I suppose it also helps that there's likely two or three MANPADS in the UAF for every one Russian aircraft.
 
Admiral Beez said:
I suppose it also helps that there's likely two or three MANPADS in the UAF for every one Russian aircraft.
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It's almost a pity the Russians didn't learn that lesson from Afghanistan; almost. Paltry supplies of MANPADS, and very little heavier, enabled the Afghans to evict them.

The war-making materiel shipping to Ukraine far outstrips the aid we gave the mujahadeen. And the Ukrainians are much better placed to fight a decisive campaign so long as the aid holds up, I think. And even if the Russians should win out, which I strongly doubt, they will face an insurrection which has already started in the occupied provinces.

I've said it very early in this thread and I stand by it now, that the bear has its own nose in the trap and there's no easy way out. They didn't learn.
 
The thought occurs to me as well that Zelinskyy has had his "we will fight in the fields" moment, and now we're moving into the nuts and bolts of fighting it out. Going from the victory in the Battle of Britain to the struggles of North Africa, by way of analogy.
 
Well, as I've mentioned before, we're seeing the WWII invasion of the Soviet Union in reverse.

The Germans rolled in en masse and steamrolled the Red Army, but their logistics failed them and their assault focus was not flexible.

The Russians were able to stall the Germans long enough to build up their numbers, coupled with lend-lease material and went on the offensive.

The Germans inflicted a few setbacks, but by and large, the Soviets' momentum kept up until they hit Berlin.

This is not to say that Ukraine is going to march on Moscow, but like Finland before, the Ukrainians just want the Russians off their land.
 
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