Because Russia's word is worthless. They signed an internationally-binding agreement to respect Ukrainian sovereignty. Did they keep their word?
Putin is a petulant child-bully who wants his own way ALL the time. Whenever any nation pushes back against Putins 'druthers, he threatens "dire consequences." This time, his bluff has been called….and shown for what it is.
Now, I agree we don't want Ukraine attacking Mother Russia directly. That would be stupid and escalatory, and would play right into Putin's hands.
However, the world has been listening to Putin. We've heard his rants and tantrums. Backing down now would be disastrous and prove, once and for all, that the west has no spine and can't be trusted. It's a tough balancing act, for sure, but it's one we need to keep walking, IMHO.
As others have noted, you've made a lot of complaints about the path the west is pursuing but you've not offered any alternatives for how to proceed. I'd really like to hear your ideas on that front.
I have not disagreed with ANY characterization about Putin, nor supported in any way his invasion of Ukraine, nor have any negative feelings regarding the destruction of Russia's tactical capabilities.
ALL my life of 77 years I have lived in a Geo political atmosphere of MADD, mostly as a dependent of a warrior at the tip of the spear. From my perspective we (US) have shed blood on every continent, only to be reviled by everyone that doesn't depend on our security umbrella. That comment specifically does NOT include UK, Australia, Canada, Japan, Poland and South Korea. We are reviled by EU leadership (separate from NATA leadership), most of the UN and every nation that we crushed in the War Against Terror and "Weapons of Mass Destruction" bogeyman.
(One political comment here is now inserted "Except for the Release of Covid-19" which was the greatest Ever destroyer of free economy and prosperity across the globe for a non-kinetic weapon. China has not been held accountable by Any Nationstate.)
I took note of Eisenhower in my formative years of "Beware the Military-Industrial Complex" and noted during my airframe career that there are Zero CEOs in that industry (military weapon systems) that hated ANY war or conflict that we (US) jumped into with religious and rightous zeal. Trillions and Trillions and Trillions of dollars spent to camp in hundreds of bases worldwide, paying our share and a chunk of NATO countries shares - while their leaders quietly reduce their contributions and shift to infrastrucure, and programs often beneficial to their People.
This particular flash point was instigated over a long time but rapidly escalated when Russia lost political influence and control over Ukraine several years ago. Despite Putin's lack of credibility regarding truth in speech and actions - I FIRMLY believe that 'enemies' on the Border is and will be for aVery long time a genetic code in Russians and descendents of WWII.
Independent of the facts of the matter regarding US funding Bio labs in Ukraine (I believe based on Victora Nuland's antics on behalf of US relative to Ukraine), the US Administration worked tirelessly to separate Ukraine from Russia politically - successully.
A transcript of the alleged conversation between Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and the US ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt discussing the crisis in Ukraine.
www.bbc.com
When Georgia made noises about NATO, Putin/Russia reacted as we should have EXPECTED and left Georgia to twist in the wind beause some sane individuals with a voice understood the paranoid Russia mind about border countries allied against them.
Bringing us to Ukraine. The core of Ukraine/Russia is "You are either with me (on the border) or against me (on my border).
We (the US) completely failed to remember this important factoid about post WWII history in the Iron Curtain stateswhen anti-USSR factions began to rise. Putin was and is in that historical mindset. The concept of RECEPTIVITY to Ukraine petitioning for NATO club was NEVER acceptable to Russia (NOT just Putin). The concept of an 'Alliance against Russian Aggression until NATO accepts Ukraine is tantamount to a declaration of organized hostile intent by ALL members of NATO.
One of the other seeds of this debacle is the dependency on natural gas from Russia. One of our President's recognized the threat to NATO/EU of Russian stranglehold on the economic balls of our Euro allies and negotiated sanity of seeking alternate sources from NORD. Another did not and cancelled that agreement, enabling Putin once again to firmly grasp Germany's nuts - for which they are paying dearly, economically and politically.
One of the treats to Russia was a rogue Ukraine government that could shut that pipeline down.
Summary - Ukraine a direct threat, as well as existential threat by proxy if admitted to NATO. They could threaten cuts the pipeline, with big stupid brother holding baeball bat while the brat sticks his tongue out.
So, The opportunity to shut down the adventure was lost - if ever possible given the above circumstances. Putin calculated that he could exercise the same strategy he executed against Georgia, but for some reason he miscalculted Ukraine initial resistance as well as NATO desire to attrit Russia militariliy by shipping %Trillion of latest toys and expecting sanctions to bring Russia to the table with tail tucked between legs.
So, Buffnut - what do I Believe should be the highest priority?
1. Take NATO acceptance off the table and make it clear to Zelensky that we are NOT going (intentionally) to full blown war on Ukraine behalf. BTW we may get there anyway because not very many Western leaders are dealing with a full deck.
2. Engage China, Turkey and France to meet with Russia (not just Putin) to fully understand the hard red lines outside of NATO membership. I say engage China and France and Turkey- but not US, because I truly believe we have fucked this up beyond repair across at least four Presidents.
3. Under ZERO circumstances support any cross border activity from NATO military into Ukraine.
4. Be prepared with a de-escalation plan when Russia shuts down the grid and attacks all inbound shipments from NATO countries.
4. Make it clear to Russia that not only will we continue to arm Ukraine until a settlement is obtained, but also make it clear to Ukraine that they cannot use NATO as a negotiating lever to blugeon Russia.
Points
1. Ukraine has made it abundantly clear that outright military victory is pretty near impossible - either wih acceptable losses, or with expectations that Russia will never control Ukraine, similar to Afghanistan.
2. Putin, IMO is struggling between rational and insanity. He has never been confronted with total failure. I feel that emotions (all sides) are the greatest risk to existing in a global winter down the road. We ALL expect rational decisions by Putin. I say bullshit - don't assume.
tass.com
