"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (3 Viewers)

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Why not pay attention?

I saw another article where Zelenski was petitioning yesterday for 'provisional' (whatever that means) acceptance into NATO while the formal application proceeds. There was a Very strong reaction from Russia regarding WWIII if NATO engages in support of Ukraine directly. Long Range missiles fit that 'red line'. When will Russia strike directly at Poland supply chain? This war has been treated as a 'proxy' war by mutual consent - so far. Why not take Russia at its word?

Will NATO declare war? (which EU countries immediately bail out of NATO. Ya think Italy and Germany and France and Turkey are 'all in'). Dod Chief of Staffs Milleyacknowledges that our inventory is dangerously low to conduct a One theatre conventional war.

Where are the leaders speaking out that this 'local war' as the potential to get totlaly out of control and speaking out about thoughts to control complete escalation?

"Prologue To Third World War": Kremlin Reacts To Security Guarantees For Ukraine | ZeroHedge
 
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There is considerably more strategic goals in the south (including Crimea, eventually) and the the Ukraine may be playing a shell game to keep the Russians off balance and prevent them from digging in.

In a phrase, the Ukrainians are taking advantage of interior lines. They can shift the axis of advance faster than the Russians can shift defensive forces. But honestly, I think the Russians have accepted that they were defeated around Kharkiv. I don't think they're going to be sending troops from the south north again after the destruction of the northern front.

They have to hold Kherson in order to maintain their troops in SW Ukraine, as well as support the south flank of their Donbas forces. The Russian troops on the coast must already be feeling nervous about their position. I'd act to cut those troops off from their bridgehead myself, not by attacking Kherson itself, but by slicing to the coast and pocketing them.

Once Ukraine has secured its recaptured areas in the north it should be able to move troops into reserve/refit for this mission to the south.
 

Why not pay attention?

I saw another article where Zelenski was petitioning yesterday for 'provisional' (whatever that means) acceptance into NATO while the formal application proceeds. There was a Very strong reaction from Russia regarding WWIII if NATO engages in support of Ukraine directly. Long Range missiles fit that 'red line'. When will Russia strike directly at Poland supply chain? This war has been treated as a 'proxy' war by mutual consent - so far. Why not take Russia at its word?

Will NATO declare war? (which EU countries immediately bail out of NATO. Ya think Italy and Germany and France and Turkey are 'all in'). Dod Chief of Staffs Milleyacknowledges that our inventory is dangerously low to conduct a One theatre conventional war.

Where are the leaders speaking out that this 'local war' as the potential to get totlaly out of control and speaking out about thoughts to control complete escalation?

"Prologue To Third World War": Kremlin Reacts To Security Guarantees For Ukraine | ZeroHedge
Russia has been threatening just about everyone for quite some time - remember the "dire consequences" if Finland joined NATO?

It's extremely unlikely that the Ukraine military would attack Russia proper. Doing so would vindicate Putin's accusations.
Their goal is to rid their nation of occupiers - nothing more. This has been stated time and again.

Putin has made it clear several times that he aims to "liberate" ethnic Russians in Estonia and Poland, too.
So if we become frightened at Putin's sabre rattling and toss Ukraine under the bus, then who's next and what would our frightened reaction be on that (those) occasions.

As it stands, Putin is nothing more than a schoolyard bully who has been appeased too many times. Each time, he has grown bolder - except this time, his intended victim turned around and kicked his ass and exposed the fact that his mighty first-world military is third-rate, at best.

As far as Russia's nuclear arsenal is concerned, what shape are the missiles in? Judging how their equipment has performed so poorly in combat, I imagine their nukes are in a comparable state of fitness.
 
NATO won't declare war. NATO can't declare war. NATO doesn't have to. There are rumblings in Russky Mir. The CSTO is fraying and is becoming irrelevant right in the heart of Russia's sphere of influence. Hello China. Hello Turkey. Putin is raising a prison army. Will they be trained or is Putler just making space in the prisons? This army will be equipped with arms and equipment from the Soviet era and that was retired during the Soviet era. Ammo from North Korea. This army will be transported to Ukraine? Armenia? Georgia? on a failing rail system. Sanctions are delaying repair of rolling stock. Russia and the Western nations have supplied better arms to Ukraine than Russia has left. Russian aviation doesn't do much aviating. Why would NATO even want to declare war at this point?
GrauGeist is right. Stand up to the bully. At this time it's posturing. I don't think (hope) he will be allowed the nukes.


Edit : Totally forgot about trucks. There aren't quite as many as there was a while ago.
 
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If only 10 percent are functional, we're in for a bad time. Better if Putin has the same concerns about a possibly useless stockpile.
And those 10 percent have to make it through the wall of interceptors situated around North America, the Atlantic and Pacific.
The defense system is both ground based and ship based.

Matter of fact, there are two USN ships stationed in Europe (one in the Med and one in the Baltic) currently, whose functions include intercepting any nukes Russia might use on European targets, with their Aegis system.
 
Why not pay attention?
So, what do you suggest? Pull a Munich and push Ukraine to accept a Peace in Our Time settlement with Russia? This would only give Putin time to regroup and rearm, leading to a renewed Russian invasion of Ukraine in at the latest 2025.

Here's how this must end. This is Ukraine below. When Russia has exited all Ukrainian territory and all territory has fully been returned to Kiyv's control. Only then will the West stand down… and by then Ukraine will have the most combat experienced and successful army in Europe. Again, what's the alternative that does embolden Putin to try again?

ukraine-road-map.jpg
 
Why not pay attention?

Why not take Russia at its word?

Because Russia's word is worthless. They signed an internationally-binding agreement to respect Ukrainian sovereignty. Did they keep their word?

Putin is a petulant child-bully who wants his own way ALL the time. Whenever any nation pushes back against Putins 'druthers, he threatens "dire consequences." This time, his bluff has been called….and shown for what it is.

Now, I agree we don't want Ukraine attacking Mother Russia directly. That would be stupid and escalatory, and would play right into Putin's hands.

However, the world has been listening to Putin. We've heard his rants and tantrums. Backing down now would be disastrous and prove, once and for all, that the west has no spine and can't be trusted. It's a tough balancing act, for sure, but it's one we need to keep walking, IMHO.

As others have noted, you've made a lot of complaints about the path the west is pursuing but you've not offered any alternatives for how to proceed. I'd really like to hear your ideas on that front.
 
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Putin is a maffia boss since his st Peterburg days. After the mayor (also maffia ) he served got defeated he got a small job at the Kremlin as rose with in a year (!) to most senior intelligence officer. I think it will be a mistake to see him as a schoolyard bully. He is in all his doings a mob boss, the capo di tutti i capi. But that has advantages. He has to take in account the others bosses. They will have no profit from nuclear destruction.
 
Because Russia's word is worthless. They signed an internationally-binding agreement to respect Ukrainian sovereignty. Did they keep their word?

Putin is a petulant child-bully who wants his own way ALL the time. Whenever any nation pushes back against Putins 'druthers, he threatens "dire consequences." This time, his bluff has been called….and shown for what it is.

Now, I agree we don't want Ukraine attacking Mother Russia directly. That would be stupid and escalatory, and would play right into Putin's hands.

However, the world has been listening to Putin. We've heard his rants and tantrums. Backing down now would be disastrous and prove, once and for all, that the west has no spine and can't be trusted. It's a tough balancing act, for sure, but it's one we need to keep walking, IMHO.

As others have noted, you've made a lot of complaints about the path the west is pursuing but you've not offered any alternatives for how to proceed. I'd really like to hear your ideas on that front.
I have not disagreed with ANY characterization about Putin, nor supported in any way his invasion of Ukraine, nor have any negative feelings regarding the destruction of Russia's tactical capabilities.

ALL my life of 77 years I have lived in a Geo political atmosphere of MADD, mostly as a dependent of a warrior at the tip of the spear. From my perspective we (US) have shed blood on every continent, only to be reviled by everyone that doesn't depend on our security umbrella. That comment specifically does NOT include UK, Australia, Canada, Japan, Poland and South Korea. We are reviled by EU leadership (separate from NATA leadership), most of the UN and every nation that we crushed in the War Against Terror and "Weapons of Mass Destruction" bogeyman.

(One political comment here is now inserted "Except for the Release of Covid-19" which was the greatest Ever destroyer of free economy and prosperity across the globe for a non-kinetic weapon. China has not been held accountable by Any Nationstate.)

I took note of Eisenhower in my formative years of "Beware the Military-Industrial Complex" and noted during my airframe career that there are Zero CEOs in that industry (military weapon systems) that hated ANY war or conflict that we (US) jumped into with religious and rightous zeal. Trillions and Trillions and Trillions of dollars spent to camp in hundreds of bases worldwide, paying our share and a chunk of NATO countries shares - while their leaders quietly reduce their contributions and shift to infrastrucure, and programs often beneficial to their People.

This particular flash point was instigated over a long time but rapidly escalated when Russia lost political influence and control over Ukraine several years ago. Despite Putin's lack of credibility regarding truth in speech and actions - I FIRMLY believe that 'enemies' on the Border is and will be for aVery long time a genetic code in Russians and descendents of WWII.

Independent of the facts of the matter regarding US funding Bio labs in Ukraine (I believe based on Victora Nuland's antics on behalf of US relative to Ukraine), the US Administration worked tirelessly to separate Ukraine from Russia politically - successully.

When Georgia made noises about NATO, Putin/Russia reacted as we should have EXPECTED and left Georgia to twist in the wind beause some sane individuals with a voice understood the paranoid Russia mind about border countries allied against them.

Bringing us to Ukraine. The core of Ukraine/Russia is "You are either with me (on the border) or against me (on my border).

We (the US) completely failed to remember this important factoid about post WWII history in the Iron Curtain stateswhen anti-USSR factions began to rise. Putin was and is in that historical mindset. The concept of RECEPTIVITY to Ukraine petitioning for NATO club was NEVER acceptable to Russia (NOT just Putin). The concept of an 'Alliance against Russian Aggression until NATO accepts Ukraine is tantamount to a declaration of organized hostile intent by ALL members of NATO.

One of the other seeds of this debacle is the dependency on natural gas from Russia. One of our President's recognized the threat to NATO/EU of Russian stranglehold on the economic balls of our Euro allies and negotiated sanity of seeking alternate sources from NORD. Another did not and cancelled that agreement, enabling Putin once again to firmly grasp Germany's nuts - for which they are paying dearly, economically and politically.

One of the treats to Russia was a rogue Ukraine government that could shut that pipeline down.

Summary - Ukraine a direct threat, as well as existential threat by proxy if admitted to NATO. They could threaten cuts the pipeline, with big stupid brother holding baeball bat while the brat sticks his tongue out.

So, The opportunity to shut down the adventure was lost - if ever possible given the above circumstances. Putin calculated that he could exercise the same strategy he executed against Georgia, but for some reason he miscalculted Ukraine initial resistance as well as NATO desire to attrit Russia militariliy by shipping %Trillion of latest toys and expecting sanctions to bring Russia to the table with tail tucked between legs.

So, Buffnut - what do I Believe should be the highest priority?
1. Take NATO acceptance off the table and make it clear to Zelensky that we are NOT going (intentionally) to full blown war on Ukraine behalf. BTW we may get there anyway because not very many Western leaders are dealing with a full deck.
2. Engage China, Turkey and France to meet with Russia (not just Putin) to fully understand the hard red lines outside of NATO membership. I say engage China and France and Turkey- but not US, because I truly believe we have fucked this up beyond repair across at least four Presidents.
3. Under ZERO circumstances support any cross border activity from NATO military into Ukraine.
4. Be prepared with a de-escalation plan when Russia shuts down the grid and attacks all inbound shipments from NATO countries.
4. Make it clear to Russia that not only will we continue to arm Ukraine until a settlement is obtained, but also make it clear to Ukraine that they cannot use NATO as a negotiating lever to blugeon Russia.

Points
1. Ukraine has made it abundantly clear that outright military victory is pretty near impossible - either wih acceptable losses, or with expectations that Russia will never control Ukraine, similar to Afghanistan.
2. Putin, IMO is struggling between rational and insanity. He has never been confronted with total failure. I feel that emotions (all sides) are the greatest risk to existing in a global winter down the road. We ALL expect rational decisions by Putin. I say bullshit - don't assume.
 
I have not disagreed with ANY characterization about Putin, nor supported in any way his invasion of Ukraine, nor have any negative feelings regarding the destruction of Russia's tactical capabilities.

Ok...hell of a lot to unpack in that post. Please note, however, that I never said you were a Putin fan, nor did I infer or imply that you thought the Russian invasion was acceptable.


ALL my life of 77 years I have lived in a Geo political atmosphere of MADD, mostly as a dependent of a warrior at the tip of the spear. From my perspective we (US) have shed blood on every continent, only to be reviled by everyone that doesn't depend on our security umbrella. That comment specifically does NOT include UK, Australia, Canada, Japan, Poland and South Korea. We are reviled by EU leadership (separate from NATA leadership), most of the UN and every nation that we crushed in the War Against Terror and "Weapons of Mass Destruction" bogeyman.

Having been a warrior at the tip of the spear (ok, not quite the tip), for 20 years, plus working within, or directly in support the militaries of two western nations, I may offer a subtly different perspective. First, however, I want to pull the thread on the "reviled by everyone that doesn't depend on our security umbrella" and "we (US) have shed blood on every continent." You make it sound like the US does this on its own. Yes, the US is the 600lb gorilla on the stage but I find it frustrating when we entirely ignore the contribution of our Allies that help us (the US) achieve our political and military objectives. The Brits, Aussies and Canuks have shed blood on every continent. Many European nations contributed forces to operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

It's all to easy for America to expect everyone to do its bidding but I'm afraid that's never going to happen. Countries have differences of opinion about global issues. Even the Brits aren't in lock-step with America on everything. Just because they disagree, however, doesn't mean they're the enemy or that they revile the US. Having lived in Europe for 3 years, there is certainly a love-hate relationship between host nations and US forces, particularly in Germany. However, in general, the relationship is more positive than negative. There are some who protest outside our bases. Equally, there are some who will buy you a beer just because you're helping defend Europe.


I took note of Eisenhower in my formative years of "Beware the Military-Industrial Complex" and noted during my airframe career that there are Zero CEOs in that industry (military weapon systems) that hated ANY war or conflict that we (US) jumped into with religious and rightous zeal. Trillions and Trillions and Trillions of dollars spent to camp in hundreds of bases worldwide, paying our share and a chunk of NATO countries shares - while their leaders quietly reduce their contributions and shift to infrastrucure, and programs often beneficial to their People.

Again, you're taking a very binary view. The so-called "peace dividend" at the end of the Cold War resulted in EVERY western nation reducing its defence budgets, INCLUDING the US. The analogy of "paying a share" to NATO is not accurate since the requirement is to expend a proportion of GDP on defence, not on paying money to NATO. The US forces in Europe have been drastically cut compared to the Cold War. For the past few decades, US forces have concentrated on GWOT and activities in the CENTCOM AOR. Therefore it's a bit strong to say America has been "paying for" other NATO member's contributions because, frankly, US forces in CENTCOM do NOTHING for NATO security.


Independent of the facts of the matter regarding US funding Bio labs in Ukraine (I believe based on Victora Nuland's antics on behalf of US relative to Ukraine), the US Administration worked tirelessly to separate Ukraine from Russia politically - successully.

Please, PLEASE don't go down the "US-funded bio labs route." The only thing that's happening there is pretty standard medical research. Having seen how xenophobic the US military can be, even with our strongest Allies, there is no way--I repeat NO WAY--the US is going to offshore any critical defence research, whether that's chem, bio, or anything else.

As for Nuland et al, that recording says nothing except that the US had desires for the future of Ukrainian democratic leadership. EVERY country has these types of conversations because they're trying to figure out how to engage with that country after a democratic election. If the US was the puppet-master in Ukraine, how is it that Zelensky doesn't even get a mention in these recordings?

Yes, the US worked tirelessly to separate Ukraine from Russia. So did the UK and other European Allies because all wanted to see the totalitarian Moscow-puppet in Kyiv replaced by a more democratic and less corrupt form of government. That was always going to upset Moscow....but that's what happens when you push freedom and democracy as an agenda.


Bringing us to Ukraine. The core of Ukraine/Russia is "You are either with me (on the border) or against me (on my border).

We (the US) completely failed to remember this important factoid about post WWII history in the Iron Curtain stateswhen anti-USSR factions began to rise. Putin was and is in that historical mindset. The concept of RECEPTIVITY to Ukraine petitioning for NATO club was NEVER acceptable to Russia (NOT just Putin). The concept of an 'Alliance against Russian Aggression until NATO accepts Ukraine is tantamount to a declaration of organized hostile intent by ALL members of NATO.

Yes, Ukraine joining NATO was arguably a red line for Moscow. However, it highlights the illogic of Putin's actions. By invading Ukraine, Putin simply brought Russian forces CLOSER to NATO. Oh...and he persuaded Finland and Sweden to join. Again, Putin is a dictator who wants the entire world to do his bidding, and so he throws temper tantrums when anyone disagrees with him. I'm afraid that's life when democratic nations have their own ideas about how the world should operate (and that's far more than just the US).



One of the other seeds of this debacle is the dependency on natural gas from Russia. One of our President's recognized the threat to NATO/EU of Russian stranglehold on the economic balls of our Euro allies and negotiated sanity of seeking alternate sources from NORD. Another did not and cancelled that agreement, enabling Putin once again to firmly grasp Germany's nuts - for which they are paying dearly, economically and politically.

One of the treats to Russia was a rogue Ukraine government that could shut that pipeline down.

Summary - Ukraine a direct threat, as well as existential threat by proxy if admitted to NATO. They could threaten cuts the pipeline, with big stupid brother holding baeball bat while the brat sticks his tongue out.

I entirely agree about Europe's over-dependency on Russian fuel. I've been saying it for years. I just never thought Putin was stupid enough to kill the goose that was laying golden eggs for his economy. Just shows how wrong I can be.

Yes, Ukraine could have shut down the pipelines. However...NEWSFLASH. So could Poland. So could Germany. Having a corrupt, autocratic government in Kyiv is far worse than having a democratically-elected one.


That's enough for now. I'll be back later to dig into the actual answer to my question about what the west should do about the Russia/Ukraine situation.
 
SAMARKAND, Uzbekistan, Sept 16 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin on Friday brushed off a lightning Ukrainian counter-offensive with a smile but warned that Russia would respond more forcefully if its troops were put under further pressure.

[...]

"The Kiev authorities announced that they have launched and are conducting an active counter-offensive operation. Well, let's see how it develops, how it ends up," Putin said with a grin.

[...]

"Recently, the Russian armed forces have inflicted a couple of sensitive blows. Let's assume they're a warning. If the situation continues to develop like this, then the response will be more serious," he said.



He's essentially threatening more civilian reprisals to punish the Ukrainians for beating his army. Where's a nice intracranial blastoma when you need it?
 
Let's spin the way-back wheel to April 25th of this year and see what the Russians had to say about things:


Oh, it's the same "blah blah blah" about how their attacking a sovereign nation should not be interfered with and that they are the victim in all of this...
 
Ok...hell of a lot to unpack in that post. Please note, however, that I never said you were a Putin fan, nor did I infer or imply that you thought the Russian invasion was acceptable.




Having been a warrior at the tip of the spear (ok, not quite the tip), for 20 years, plus working within, or directly in support the militaries of two western nations, I may offer a subtly different perspective. First, however, I want to pull the thread on the "reviled by everyone that doesn't depend on our security umbrella" and "we (US) have shed blood on every continent." You make it sound like the US does this on its own. Yes, the US is the 600lb gorilla on the stage but I find it frustrating when we entirely ignore the contribution of our Allies that help us (the US) achieve our political and military objectives. The Brits, Aussies and Canuks have shed blood on every continent. Many European nations contributed forces to operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

It's all to easy for America to expect everyone to do its bidding but I'm afraid that's never going to happen. Countries have differences of opinion about global issues. Even the Brits aren't in lock-step with America on everything. Just because they disagree, however, doesn't mean they're the enemy or that they revile the US. Having lived in Europe for 3 years, there is certainly a love-hate relationship between host nations and US forces, particularly in Germany. However, in general, the relationship is more positive than negative. There are some who protest outside our bases. Equally, there are some who will buy you a beer just because you're helping defend Europe.




Again, you're taking a very binary view. The so-called "peace dividend" at the end of the Cold War resulted in EVERY western nation reducing its defence budgets, INCLUDING the US. The analogy of "paying a share" to NATO is not accurate since the requirement is to expend a proportion of GDP on defence, not on paying money to NATO. The US forces in Europe have been drastically cut compared to the Cold War. For the past few decades, US forces have concentrated on GWOT and activities in the CENTCOM AOR. Therefore it's a bit strong to say America has been "paying for" other NATO member's contributions because, frankly, US forces in CENTCOM do NOTHING for NATO security.




Please, PLEASE don't go down the "US-funded bio labs route." The only thing that's happening there is pretty standard medical research. Having seen how xenophobic the US military can be, even with our strongest Allies, there is no way--I repeat NO WAY--the US is going to offshore any critical defence research, whether that's chem, bio, or anything else.

As for Nuland et al, that recording says nothing except that the US had desires for the future of Ukrainian democratic leadership. EVERY country has these types of conversations because they're trying to figure out how to engage with that country after a democratic election. If the US was the puppet-master in Ukraine, how is it that Zelensky doesn't even get a mention in these recordings?

Yes, the US worked tirelessly to separate Ukraine from Russia. So did the UK and other European Allies because all wanted to see the totalitarian Moscow-puppet in Kyiv replaced by a more democratic and less corrupt form of government. That was always going to upset Moscow....but that's what happens when you push freedom and democracy as an agenda.




Yes, Ukraine joining NATO was arguably a red line for Moscow. However, it highlights the illogic of Putin's actions. By invading Ukraine, Putin simply brought Russian forces CLOSER to NATO. Oh...and he persuaded Finland and Sweden to join. Again, Putin is a dictator who wants the entire world to do his bidding, and so he throws temper tantrums when anyone disagrees with him. I'm afraid that's life when democratic nations have their own ideas about how the world should operate (and that's far more than just the US).





I entirely agree about Europe's over-dependency on Russian fuel. I've been saying it for years. I just never thought Putin was stupid enough to kill the goose that was laying golden eggs for his economy. Just shows how wrong I can be.

Yes, Ukraine could have shut down the pipelines. However...NEWSFLASH. So could Poland. So could Germany. Having a corrupt, autocratic government in Kyiv is far worse than having a democratically-elected one.


That's enough for now. I'll be back later to dig into the actual answer to my question about what the west should do about the Russia/Ukraine situation.

Please stop making sense and thinking critically. :D
 
SAMARKAND, Uzbekistan, Sept 16 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin on Friday brushed off a lightning Ukrainian counter-offensive with a smile but warned that Russia would respond more forcefully if its troops were put under further pressure.

[...]

"The Kiev authorities announced that they have launched and are conducting an active counter-offensive operation. Well, let's see how it develops, how it ends up," Putin said with a grin.

[...]

"Recently, the Russian armed forces have inflicted a couple of sensitive blows. Let's assume they're a warning. If the situation continues to develop like this, then the response will be more serious," he said.



He's essentially threatening more civilian reprisals to punish the Ukrainians for beating his army. Where's a nice intracranial blastoma when you need it?

Like a typical school yard bully.
 
Despite Putin's lack of credibility regarding truth in speech and actions - I FIRMLY believe that 'enemies' on the Border is and will be for aVery long time a genetic code in Russians and descendents of WWII.
There is nothing like that in the genetic code of the citizens of the Russian Federation - the former RSFSR, the republic that had a very small part of its territory occupied and whose civilians suffered much less than those in the other two Soviet republics (nowadays - Belarus and Ukraine) and other countries: Poland, Yugoslavia, China...
Indoctrination is a problem and a source of trouble, not genetics. Shut down the propaganda machine, and in a couple of years, "code" will be clean again. As it was before Putin's gang came into power.
 

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