A post I made at another forum regarding the upcoming Ukrainian offensive. As noted, it's pretty speculative, and also as noted, comments and critiques are welcomed. What do y'all think?
The other thing is this: urban battles have a way of sucking in resources, be those resources men, ammo, or food. Because of the ongoing struggle for Bakhmut, I'd be willing to bet a good proportion of Russian logistic ability -- shaky even before it got shredded last year -- is tied up supplying the forces (ISW's estimate today, most of three divisions) assaulting the city. Prigozhin has already been complaining loudly for weeks now about ammo shortages.
Three conclusions, and perhaps others, I'm all ears, could possibly be drawn from that group of facts: 1) the Russians are truly running short on ammo and other supplies; 2) the Russian logistics train is overworked, meaning that they probably want to or already are bringing more transport assets to bear for the fighting units; and 3) that the Russians may (stress may) be pulling troops from the flanks in order to keep up the pressure on the city.
In that context, a Ukrainian drive to the south could (again, stressing could) face: 1) a southern front more weakly manned and more poorly supplied; 2) Russian forces stripped of logistical transport in order to support the eastern battle; and/or 3) Russian forces short of ammo that has been sent to Bakhmut.
If the above speculation -- and that's all it is, speculation -- holds true in one or more of the possibilities, this may be the Ukrainians preparing the conditions for an offensive a la Operation Uranus that the Russians pulled on the Germans at Stalingrad: suck the Russians into Bakhmut, force them to commit reserves into the cauldron, running low on supplies and experiencing transport difficulties, and then hit them on the flanks for envelopment.
Or the Ukrainians could simply, as noted above, hit the coast and from there decide to wheel north to roll up the eastern front, or wheel south and liberate Crimea. That has the advantage of simplicity.
Again, this is all speculation on my part, putting together pieces I've read both in current news and readings of history. But I'd be willing to bet that this has been at the least considered by the Ukrainian general staff, even if they've since decided on different operational plans.
Comments and critique welcome from all.
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