"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (2 Viewers)

[GrauGeist]

backed by who?

It's a long list of nations who have provided financial aid to Ukraine - far beyond those that have provided military aid.

 

[buffnut453]

And still Russia persists in wasting munitions on cities, which provide no discernible military advantage, while failing to conduct deep strike operations against rear echelon Ukrainian forces. They just NEVER learn, do they?

Ukraine war: Kyiv says it shot down Russian hypersonic missiles

Russia denies its Kinzhal missiles were hit and says one destroyed a Patriot air defence system.

www.bbc.com

 

[Escuadrilla Azul]

And still Russia persists in wasting munitions on cities, which provide no discernible military advantage, while failing to conduct deep strike operations against rear echelon Ukrainian forces. They just NEVER learn, do they?

Ukraine war: Kyiv says it shot down Russian hypersonic missiles

Russia denies its Kinzhal missiles were hit and says one destroyed a Patriot air defence system.

www.bbc.com

In all honesty, they have attempted a deep strike against rear echelon but political aims are more important than military ones and interfere with them. And we all know that this IS not a receipt for success:

Swarm of drones wiped off the map an ammunition depot - Planet Labs

Swarm of drones wiped off the map an ammunition depot - Planet Labs. We have video and satellite images as well as photos from inside the ammunition warehouse.

bulgarianmilitary.com

 

[Dimlee]

.

I wonder though, if something similar happens in Ukraine.

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1657400838111764481

In Ukraine, it did happen in spring-summer 2022 according to witness accounts and non-official studies. Figures are not available in the public domain. We can assume that the situation improved later due to intensive training and general morale improvement after the shock of the first several weeks.
One of the lectures from the NCO training. Name: "Desertion at the front line". In Ukrainian, English subtitles can provide a general understanding. The lecture starts with videos of units which left their positions and then publicly accused the higher command of the lack of ammunition, artillery support, etc.

View: https://youtu.be/WbRiPmjOjhg

 

[Dimlee]

In all honesty, they have attempted a deep strike against rear echelon but political aims are more important than military ones and interfere with them. And we all know that this IS not a receipt for success:

Most probably, that depot stored old Soviet munitions. Still, it's a loss as such warehouses are hard to build.

 

[Dimlee]

And still Russia persists in wasting munitions on cities, which provide no discernible military advantage, while failing to conduct deep strike operations against rear echelon Ukrainian forces. They just NEVER learn, do they?

Ukraine war: Kyiv says it shot down Russian hypersonic missiles

Russia denies its Kinzhal missiles were hit and says one destroyed a Patriot air defence system.

www.bbc.com

Allegedly, they targeted Patriot (or other Western SAM) batteries again. The air defence was very busy last night. There are videos showing multiple launches.

 

[Dimlee]

I do hope that Oksana Markarova, Ukraine's ambassador to the USA is conveying to Zelenskyy the nuances of the US governmental system and the risks to Ukraine support presented by the separation of powers between Congress and POTUS and the consequences of the Dems losing the House majority last Nov. I expect in Ukraine the President's powers are near absolute, as we never hear about Zelenskyy having to wait for some representative consensus in the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine's parliament) before acting on something.

In this light, delaying the launch of the big counteroffensive needs to be weighed against the risk that the US Congress might block further aid. If the counteroffensive is looking like a success, the US Congress might be inclined to back a winner. If not, trouble awaits.

Concerns are valid. However, even in the worst case, supplies will not stop after the budget year ends. Part of the aid is under USAI (Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative), it is long-term, provided in many months after the announcement.

 

[Dimlee]

I have no idea what the actual numbers were but I wouldn't mind a side bet that the amount of money Ukraine is costing the USA is a tiny proportion of what the USA spent in Afghanistan over 12 months. Plus most importantly, the cost in American blood which was spilt, which isn't a factor in Ukraine.

Actual numbers (2023):

https://appropriations.house.gov/sites/democrats.appropriations.house.gov/files/FY23%20Summary%20of%20Appropriations%20Provisions.pdf

Page 47, Additional Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2023.

 

[Ascent]

A lot of equipment sent by the US is also surplus that would never have gone back in to American service and would have had to have been written off at a later date. Although it goes down as the cost of replacing it, effectively it's costing America nothing.

 

[Dimlee]

Probably, the Russian economy is on a war footing already. Germany 1943?
"Russia spent 2 trillion roubles ($26 billion) on defence in January and February alone, a 282% jump on the same period a year ago...".

Russia's defence spending jumped 282% y/y to $26 billion in Jan-Feb -budget data

Rising military production and huge state spending are keeping Russia's industry buzzing along, helping soften the economic impact of Western sanctions. In the first two months of 2022, 525.4 billion roubles of budgetary funds were spent on "national defence". Russia launched what it calls a...

news.yahoo.com

 

[MIflyer]

Moldova withdraws from Russia-led alliance after 30 years.

Moldova contains an enormous Soviet-Era ammunition depot, which very probably would be of great use to the Russians, although the utility of that aging ammo is in doubt.. However, the section of the country that contains that depot broke away from the rest of the country and was occupied by Russian forces some time back. So Moldova and Russia were not getting along too well, anyway, and Moldova quitting the Russian Federation will not prevent Russia from accessing those munitions.

 

[J_P_C]

Ukrainian forces continuing to make progress north and south of Bakhmut, with advances of more than 3km in some places. They've recaptured as much ground in the last 2-3 days as Russia did in the last month. Some pro-Ukranian social media accounts report a number of instances of Russian conscripts surrendering in squad and platoon sized chunks during the 14th and 15th (likely troops from the 4th Motor Rifle brigade, which lost a bunch of officers thanks to a Ukrainian artillery strike on the brigade HQ).

Reports are that Russia is pushing in naval infantry and VDV paratroopers (both considered higher quality troops) to stabilize the situation.

Wagner Group pushing forward block by block into the western fringes of Bakhmut. Russian sources report that they've also gained ground following an attack north of Kupyansk and launched an attack near Adviivka. Not much news on the second from Russian sources, so likely it's been unsuccessful.


On the wider strategic level, there are reports that Russia is putting more effort into hardening the defenses of a number of airbases and key infrastructure (Crimea bridge maybe), following the introduction of Storm Shadow/SCALP into operation with Ukraine. Rumour is that Ukraine will receive 150+ of these. There's a LOT of targets within 200km of the forward edge of the battlefield that these will be able to be used on.

I had been anticipating a wider offensive from mid May onwards, but recent videos show territory is still unsuitable in large parts of Ukraine. Lots of mud about and poor weather.

View: https://youtu.be/RA6zyFwpGZw

movie from last advances of ZSU

Worth to wait until end to hear opinion of Ukrainian NCO about vdv.

 

[buffnut453]

Allegedly, they targeted Patriot (or other Western SAM) batteries again. The air defence was very busy last night. There are videos showing multiple launches.

I understand...but those SAM batteries are clearly defending cities. There are, undoubtedly, targets of military significance within those cities. However, Russia's actions to-date haven't shown a lot of interest in/focus on targeting those military facilities/capabilities.

Even if the SAMs are targeted, it's still not reducing Ukraine's ability to conduct offensive operations in the near future. As E Escuadrilla Azul observed, I can't help but think that political concerns, rather than military objectives, are driving targeting decisions

 

[J_P_C]

This guy is buying tickets for a free window experience.

no - this is masterpiece of Ukrainian intelligence - push orcs to fight each others...

 

[J_P_C]

Here's Canada's L-159 in Ukrainian colours, well insignia anyway.

View attachment 720856

Waterloo Warbirds changes aircraft markings from Russian to Ukrainian/Polish - Skies Mag

Waterloo Warbirds changed the Soviet-era Russian markings on their classic Aero Vodochody L-29 Delfin and MiG-15 UTI to Ukrainian Air Force (L-29) and Polish Air Force (MiG-15 UTI).

skiesmag.com

except the fact it is L-29...

 

[RogerdeLluria]

Things happening near Bakhmut.
Some comments suggest it happened a few days ago.


View: https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1658370231998316547

 

[RogerdeLluria]

More about patriot unable to intercept kinzhal ....


View: https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1658362502487449602

 

[RogerdeLluria]

And after Storm Shadow comes SCALP. Which is exactly the same but in french


View: https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1658360613892923392

 

[Dimlee]

Official accession of Ukraine to nato the Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence.

View: https://twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1658432462689652738

 

[Dimlee]

Moldova contains an enormous Soviet-Era ammunition depot, which very probably would be of great use to the Russians, although the utility of that aging ammo is in doubt.. However, the section of the country that contains that depot broke away from the rest of the country and was occupied by Russian forces some time back. So Moldova and Russia were not getting along too well, anyway, and Moldova quitting the Russian Federation will not prevent Russia from accessing those munitions.

That part of Moldova (Transnistria or Pridnestrovye) has had no connection to Russian Federation since 2014 when Ukraine shut down the transit.
Most probably, Moscow had a plan to reach Transnistria through the Odessa region but that plan failed last spring.