"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (9 Viewers)

[BiffF15]

But the F-16 with a newbie pilot against a MiG with an experienced pilot is probably going to come off second best almost every time.

BiffF15 please comment

The best answer I can give is "it depends".

The F16 is much easier to fly and fight with, and is protected from the pilot over stressing the airframe via the fly by wire (FBW) flight controls.

The MiG29 is a basic point defense fighter with simplistic capabilities and almost no endurance. Some were upgraded.

A new 200-400 hour Viper guy with normal or better skills will be an absolute handful (or more) for a 400-600 hour MiG driver (Russian). My reasoning is hours aren't everything especially if you are a Russian. Low quality training and more hours versus less hours in type but good to great training.

Luck, timing and starting parameters also play a role.

 

[GrauGeist]

Russia will be fortifying this small 5-10 mile wide spot.

Which means the fortifications will need to be manned with a concentration of men and equipment, thus becoming a fantastic target...

 

[Jabberwocky]

With the bridge out there's only one way for Ukraine to get onto Crimea, the narrow isthmus at Armyansk. Russia will be fortifying this small 5-10 mile wide spot.

I don't think that Crimea is an immediate objective, or even a near term one. At least not for 2023. Pushing south through the neck of the peninsula will be a nightmare unless there's a total collapse of opposition.

Think of the Canadian push into the Scheldt in late 1944. Similar lowland territory with lots of waterways to cross. Even though outnumbered and massively outgunned, the Germans made life hell for the Allies for about six weeks.

If Ukraine can push south to the Sea of Azov and cut ground lines of communication into Crimea, then I'd argue that a decent strategy would be to just wall off Russian forces in the peninsula and let them wither on the vine. Or, threaten an attack in an attempt to draw in additional Russian resources and either pound on them in situ or turn Ukraine's shorter interior lines of communication to their advantage and attack elsewhere.

 

[Admiral Beez]

A new Viper guy with normal or better skills will be an absolute handful for a 400-600 hour MiG driver (Russian)

I see your point, but are the Russians flying MiGs in this war? As far as I see, the Russians are flying Sukhois, namely Su-27/30/35 fighters and Su-34 strike/bombers.

On paper, the Su-35 looks like it can take on mid-range Vipers of the sort being removed from storage for Ukraine. Though this retired Lt.Col. suggests otherwise.

Former F-16 pilot says Russian Su-35 jets "junk" compared to U.S. plane

"Deep down, it's not that good of a plane," according to a retired U.S. Air Force pilot.

www.newsweek.com

 

[SaparotRob]

I see your point, but are the Russians flying MiGs in this war? As far as I see, the Russians are flying Sukhois, namely Su-27/30/35 fighters and Su-34 strike/bombers.

On paper, the Su-35 looks like it can take on mid-range Vipers of the sort being removed from storage for Ukraine. Though this retired Lt.Col. suggests otherwise.

Former F-16 pilot says Russian Su-35 jets "junk" compared to U.S. plane

"Deep down, it's not that good of a plane," according to a retired U.S. Air Force pilot.

www.newsweek.com

The VVS would operate the Su-34s, Su-35s and Mig-31s from deeper in their lines. They haven't seemed eager to close and tangle. Lack of training and questionable maintenance make these formidable planes not quite so formidable.

 

[Admiral Beez]

The VVS would operate the Su-34s, Su-35s and Mig-31s from deeper in their lines.

Ah, I forgot about the -31. Is this the last MiG operated by the Russians?

 

[Jabberwocky]

Ah, I forgot about the -31. Is this the last MiG operated by the Russians?

MiG-35 is in service, but only barely. I think there are 5 or 6 operating, and maybe another 12 or so that were in various stages of assembly before the war.

The -35 isn't 'new' - it's a souped up -29 with modernised engines, slightly bigger wing and tail empennage, improved strike and all-weather capabilities, a new systems architecture for the avionics, better sensors and various cockpit improvements.

Think of it as something like the difference between the F-15B/C and the F-15E, or going from the Su-27 to the Su-30.

 

[RogerdeLluria]

Russia boosts T-80BVM tanks and TOS-1A rocket launchers production ami

On June 17, 2023, during a visit of the Russian Minister of Defense, General of the Army Sergei Shoigu, Uralvagonzavod, a leading Russian defense manu

www.armyrecognition.com

I doubt they "produce" any T-80. T-80 production was phased out about 20 years ago in favor of T-90. What they may be doing is refurbishing (and maybe modernizing) old stored T-80s.

Though, strictly speaking, an increase of 400%, when you produce 0 tanks is still 0 tanks
Easy way to brag in front of superiors without lying.

 

[RogerdeLluria]

A few days ago emerged that Israel is about to sell roughly 220 Merkava MK2 and MK3 MBTs to some unknown buyers (one in Europe). Some rumors suggest that those buyers are Cyprus and Morocco.

Morocco owns approximately 175 upgraded T-72 MBTs. Meanwhile, Cyprus owns roughly 75 T-80U MBTs. Apparently both are interested in replacing those "soviet" tanks with something else. Guess Ukraine would make an offer to "recycle" them.

 

[RogerdeLluria]

Rumor partially confirmed.

Israel plans to sell its Merkava tanks to Cyprus

***

www.haaretz.com

 

[Warspite63]

I doubt they "produce" any T-80. T-80 production was phased out about 20 years ago in favor of T-90. What they may be doing is refurbishing (and maybe modernizing) old stored T-80s.

Though, strictly speaking, an increase of 400%, when you produce 0 tanks is still 0 tanks
Easy way to brag in front of superiors without lying.

Well played, sir. Well played!

 

[BiffF15]

I see your point, but are the Russians flying MiGs in this war? As far as I see, the Russians are flying Sukhois, namely Su-27/30/35 fighters and Su-34 strike/bombers.

On paper, the Su-35 looks like it can take on mid-range Vipers of the sort being removed from storage for Ukraine. Though this retired Lt.Col. suggests otherwise.

Former F-16 pilot says Russian Su-35 jets "junk" compared to U.S. plane

"Deep down, it's not that good of a plane," according to a retired U.S. Air Force pilot.

www.newsweek.com

I was replying to MiTasol. Honest answer is I don't know exactly what they are flying. I've seen photos of destroyed SU34, and other Flanker variants, plus MiG31, various helicopters.

The US understates what its equipment can do, Russia overstates. SU35 on paper is badass, in person with a Western trained guy, really bad ass. In combat with comm jamming, ECM, SAMs, and well trained adversaries shooting at you, and you are backed up by poor training…. Lots of question marks.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

LONDON, June 23 (Reuters) - Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Friday that the Kremlin's rationale for invading Ukraine was based on lies concocted by his perennial adversary - the army's top brass.

Prigozhin, whose frequent tirades on social media belie his limited role in the war as head of the Wagner private military company, has for months been openly accusing Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russia's top general, Valery Gerasimov, of rank incompetence.

But on Friday he for the first time dismissed Russia's core justifications for invading Ukraine on Feb. 24 last year in what it calls a "special military operation", in a video clip released on Telegram by his press service.

"There was nothing out of the ordinary happening on Feb. 24 ... the Defence Ministry is trying to deceive society and the president and tell us a story about how there was crazy aggression from Ukraine and that they were planning to attack us with the whole of NATO," Prigozhin said, calling the official version "a beautiful story".

"The war was needed ... so that Shoigu could become a marshal ... so that he could get a second 'Hero' [of Russia] medal. The war wasn't needed to demilitarise or denazify Ukraine."

Sitting on a chair with a giant black Wagner flag behind him, Prigozhin said the war had also been needed to enrich the ruling elite who, he said, were not satisfied with the commercial potential of part of Ukraine's Donbas region that Moscow seized control of in 2014 via a proxy separatist force.

"The task was to divide material assets (in Ukraine)," he said. "There was massive theft in the Donbas, but they wanted more."

Russia accuses mercenary chief of armed mutiny after he vows to punish top brass

Russia accused mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin of armed mutiny on Friday after he alleged, without providing evidence, that the military leadership had killed a huge number of his fighters in an air strike and vowed to punish them.

www.reuters.com

He'd ought to keep an eye out for anyone smoking near him.

 

[Denniss]

Vid of the Kakhovka dam as of today

View: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1672222251289124864

Russians seem to build a pontoon bridge for the damaged Chongar bridge

View: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1672238074489700352

 

[Warspite63]

Another interesting twist. He clearly likes to live dangerously...... Yevgeny Prigozhin: Wagner chief blames war on defence minister

 

[GTX]

'For peace and stability in Europe, we must bring Ukraine into NATO, there is no other solution'

OP-ED. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former NATO secretary general, and Andriy Yermak, the chief of staff to the Ukrainian president, state that Ukraine's integration into the Euro-Atlantic security architecture is in the interests of all NATO allies.

www.lemonde.fr

 

[GTX]

The State of the Ukraine Campaign

Assessing Ukrainian 2023 Offensives

mickryan.substack.com

 

[GTX]

Tangential news:

Squatting Russian diplomat refusing to leave terminated Canberra embassy site

A Russian diplomat is squatting on Commonwealth land in Canberra, after Russia was blocked from building an embassy at the site.

www.abc.net.au

Russia launches High Court Challenge over scrapped embassy development

Russia has launched a High Court challenge against the federal government's decision to stop it building a new embassy next to Parliament House.

www.abc.net.au

 

[GTX]

View: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672264953221246978?cxt=HHwWhMCzsa2HirUuAAAA

 

[Warspite63]

Tangential news:

Squatting Russian diplomat refusing to leave terminated Canberra embassy site

A Russian diplomat is squatting on Commonwealth land in Canberra, after Russia was blocked from building an embassy at the site.

www.abc.net.au

Russia launches High Court Challenge over scrapped embassy development

Russia has launched a High Court challenge against the federal government's decision to stop it building a new embassy next to Parliament House.

www.abc.net.au

Maybe the gov't of Down Under could offer an alternative location...