Admiral Beez
Major
It will be interesting if Hungary goes rogue and buys Russian natural gas this winter. The rest of the EU won't be buying any oil or gas from Russia. I'd keep an eye on Turkey too.
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"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (34 Viewers)
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RogerdeLluria
Staff Sergeant
- 1,410
- Jul 5, 2015
This winter has been so mild that right now gas reserves in Europe are record high for this time of the year. This is the time to start refilling for next winter, but EU remaining capacity is very limited. Last year gas prices started to spike in early June. This year on the other hand ....
That means that gas is readily available worldwide, and the logistics for tanking to EU are already set-up, no hiccups are expected this year.
Unfortunately Hungary has several issues:
1) Viktor Orban
2) Is one of the few Landlocked countries in Europe, so tanking gas and oil is simply not possible and the logistics are not there.
It has already been confirmed that Hungary will get most (about 80%) of it's gas and oil from Russia. Gas transits mainly through the Turkstream pipeline, oil however will, ironically, pay transit fees directly to the Ukrainian pipeline operator Ukrtransnafta. Ukrtransnafta notified Russia's pipeline operator Transneft of its plans to raise the fee it charges for the transit of oil
buffnut453
Captain
The more I look at Prigozhin, the more I see Elmer Fudd. See if you agree:
Prigozhin:
Elmer Fudd
And again:
Prigozhin:
Elmer Fudd:
The likeness is uncanny...as is the comedy value of both individuals!
Prigozhin:
Elmer Fudd
And again:
Prigozhin:
Elmer Fudd:
The likeness is uncanny...as is the comedy value of both individuals!
RogerdeLluria
Staff Sergeant
- 1,410
- Jul 5, 2015
If military economist Marcus Keupp is right, by July 2024 Ukranians may very well be taking
According to him Russia will lose the war in October this year, however the war may still drag on for a while, like Germany had already lost the war by 1944.
The Article doesn't mention it, but Marcus Keupp bases his prediction on the Russian equipment loss rate and the capacity of its industry to replace loses.
"It will be like in 1944", the military economist predicts: Russia will lose the war in October
Military economist Marcus Keupp, who is part of the ETH Military Academy in Zurich, has made a prediction about the end of the war in Ukraine
politiko.al
Regarding gas and Europe, it's not anymore a question of survival unless we get the coldest winter of 21 century, gas won't be an issue at all. (see my post above )
Major gas storages should be well filled across Europe, especially after the biggest one in Germany was taken out of russian control (who had it deliberately running dry in 2021 to mid 22), causing price spikes when they had to fill it during late summer and autumn 22.
Admiral Beez
Major
Interesting article, but Keupp predicted the Ukrainian counteroffensive to begin in April, whereas except for a some testing of the front we haven't seen the big move yet.
"Ukraine is now completing the training of Ukrainian tank teams in Germany and Poland. This means we can expect a Ukrainian counter-offensive with Western tanks from mid-April."
RogerdeLluria
Staff Sergeant
- 1,410
- Jul 5, 2015
Here explain a bit more on the calculations, but very superficially.
Military economist confident: - Russia lost the war in October - Today Times Live
The military economist Marcus Keupp works at the top university ETH Zurich and trains Swiss officers there. Now he is causing a stir with an unusual method: the expert wants to be able to calculate the end of the war in Ukraine. The forecast date is in the near future.…
todaytimeslive.com
Zelenskyy vows 'tangible' response to Russian missile attack on apartments
A Russian missile attack on an apartment building in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv has killed at least four people and injured 34 others.
www.abc.net.au
Yevgeny Prigozhin is not in Belarus, Lukashenko says, as Russian state TV airs footage of Wagner leader's palace
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who last month brokered a deal to end an armed mutiny in Russia, says Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is no longer in Belarus.
www.abc.net.au
Ukraine gains unmatched battlefield precision with M982 Excalibur GPS guided munition | Defense News July 2023 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2023 | Archive News year
Ukraine Gains Unmatched Battlefield Precision with Raytheon's Excalibur GPS guided shell
Ukraine Discusses with Türkiye the Possibility of Acquiring Fırtına Self-Propelled Howitzers | Defense News July 2023 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2023 | Archive News year
Ukraine Discusses with Turkey the Possibility of Acquiring Turkish-made Fırtına 155mm Self-Propelled tracked Howitzers
Ukrainian armed forces spotted with Czech-Polish OT-64 SKOT armored personnel carrier | Defense News July 2023 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2023 | Archive News year
Ukrainian armed forces spotted with Czech-Polish OT-64 SKOT armored personnel carrier
Bayraktar TB2 drones saved the country, Ukrainian expert says
Taras Chmut, a Ukrainian defense specialist, says the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 armed drones saved the country when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. "I think if it wasn't for them [TB2 drones], in the first months of the war, I don't think we would have been able to withstand,"...
Russian improvised rocket launcher spotted in Ukraine
A video of Russian forces' truck-mounted rocket launcher has begun to circulate on social media. Russian soldiers have built a Frankenstein-like artillery system on the UAZ Patriot pickup truck platform equipped with a UB-32 57 mm aviation rocket pod in
Ukraine adds armor ‘cages’ to its artillery systems
Ukrainian Soldiers are seeking ways to protect their artillery systems from loitering munition and FPV drone attacks by adding ‘cope cages’ to their combat vehicles. At least one Italian-supplied M109L self-propelled howitzer has been sighted near the frontline with a bizarre-looking armor...
Admiral Beez
Major
Russia needs to take out the GPS satellites over Russia. Though I assume NATO and the US have told Russia that's a red line not to cross?Ukraine gains unmatched battlefield precision with M982 Excalibur GPS guided munition | Defense News July 2023 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2023 | Archive News year
Ukraine Gains Unmatched Battlefield Precision with Raytheon's Excalibur GPS guided shellwww.armyrecognition.com
Putin’s media machine turns on ‘traitor’ Prigozhin
Russia’s state media attacks the Wagner warlord — and reveals the investigation into his failed mutiny hasn’t been dropped.
Not easy to do and arguably an act of war against the USA given the GPS satellites are a US Military asset
No Eurofighters for Ukraine, quietly they'll be sold to the Saudi
The narrative of Western nations supplying arms to Kyiv, including tanks, with promises of fighter jets, continues to unfold. Yet, there's an intriguing twist.
bulgarianmilitary.com
buffnut453
Captain
Depends what you mean by "take out." Destroying the GPS satellites would be an absolute red line. However, jamming receipt of their signals clearly is not because Russia is doing that today.
The R-330Zh Zhitel jammer (shown below) has counter-GPS capabilities and is in use by Russian forces in Ukraine
Per this article, the R-330Zh is being used in Ukraine to jam JDAM:
Jamming JDAM: The Threat to US Munitions from Russian Electronic Warfare
Leaked US documents show that Russian electronic warfare may be having a negative effect on US-supplied Joint Direct Attack Munitions.
rusi.org
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