"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (8 Viewers)

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Snowman said:
Yuan, rupees, rials, piastres, colored stones, glass beads, shells... anything, even money to play Monopoly, now Putin will receive everything except real money. And all this, of course, strictly according to plan.
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It will be interesting if Hungary goes rogue and buys Russian natural gas this winter. The rest of the EU won't be buying any oil or gas from Russia. I'd keep an eye on Turkey too.
 
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Admiral Beez said:
It will be interesting if Hungary goes rogue and buys Russian natural gas this winter. The rest of the EU won't be buying any oil or gas from Russia.
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This winter has been so mild that right now gas reserves in Europe are record high for this time of the year. This is the time to start refilling for next winter, but EU remaining capacity is very limited. Last year gas prices started to spike in early June. This year on the other hand ....

Screenshot 2023-07-06 at 17-51-28 EU Natural Gas - 2023 Data - 2010-2022 Historical - 2024 For...png


That means that gas is readily available worldwide, and the logistics for tanking to EU are already set-up, no hiccups are expected this year.

Unfortunately Hungary has several issues:
1) Viktor Orban
2) Is one of the few Landlocked countries in Europe, so tanking gas and oil is simply not possible and the logistics are not there.

It has already been confirmed that Hungary will get most (about 80%) of it's gas and oil from Russia. Gas transits mainly through the Turkstream pipeline, oil however will, ironically, pay transit fees directly to the Ukrainian pipeline operator Ukrtransnafta. Ukrtransnafta notified Russia's pipeline operator Transneft of its plans to raise the fee it charges for the transit of oil ;)
 
Admiral Beez said:
It will be interesting to see where the war is in July 2024.

Regarding the Ukrainian air force, by July 2024 the AFU should have several dozen F-16s while most of their surviving Soviet-era MiGs and Sukhois will be close to worn out. Beyond F-16s what other NATO aircraft types do we expect Ukraine to be operating by July 2024? Perhaps Apaches? Gripens or Eurofighters? By July 2024, the Ukrainian army should have some Abrams MBTs alongside a growing fleet of Leopard 2s and Leopard 1s. I expect by July 2024 Ukrainian has developed and produced their own ATACAMs or long range precision rocket artillery. Vehicles and equipment for breaching minefields and crossing rivers and defences will be well sorted. Other tech in widespread use will be further advances in night fighting and drones. The Ukrainian navy will have a growing force of fast attack craft as well as (though this may be wishful thinking) the beginnings of an amphibious capability to land in Crimea.

Meanwhile, by July 2024, the Russians have to be on the ropes in materials, tanks, manpower, money and public support. Presumably Europe will survive another winter without Russian natural gas, and public support for Ukraine across the West will remain strong. Where do we think the front lines will be in a year's time?
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If military economist Marcus Keupp is right, by July 2024 Ukranians may very well be taking Berlin Sevastopol.

According to him Russia will lose the war in October this year, however the war may still drag on for a while, like Germany had already lost the war by 1944.
The Article doesn't mention it, but Marcus Keupp bases his prediction on the Russian equipment loss rate and the capacity of its industry to replace loses.

politiko.al

"It will be like in 1944", the military economist predicts: Russia will lose the war in October

Military economist Marcus Keupp, who is part of the ETH Military Academy in Zurich, has made a prediction about the end of the war in Ukraine
politiko.al politiko.al
(crossing fingers for him to be right)

Regarding gas and Europe, it's not anymore a question of survival unless we get the coldest winter of 21 century, gas won't be an issue at all. (see my post above )
 
Major gas storages should be well filled across Europe, especially after the biggest one in Germany was taken out of russian control (who had it deliberately running dry in 2021 to mid 22), causing price spikes when they had to fill it during late summer and autumn 22.
 
RogerdeLluria said:
If military economist Marcus Keupp is right, by July 2024 Ukranians may very well be taking Berlin Sevastopol. According to him Russia will lose the war in October this year...
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Interesting article, but Keupp predicted the Ukrainian counteroffensive to begin in April, whereas except for a some testing of the front we haven't seen the big move yet.

"Ukraine is now completing the training of Ukrainian tank teams in Germany and Poland. This means we can expect a Ukrainian counter-offensive with Western tanks from mid-April."
 
Admiral Beez said:
Interesting article, but Keupp predicted the Ukrainian counteroffensive to begin in April, whereas except for a some testing of the front we haven't seen the big move yet.

"Ukraine is now completing the training of Ukrainian tank teams in Germany and Poland. This means we can expect a Ukrainian counter-offensive with Western tanks from mid-April."
Click to expand...

Here explain a bit more on the calculations, but very superficially.

todaytimeslive.com

Military economist confident: - Russia lost the war in October - Today Times Live

The military economist Marcus Keupp works at the top university ETH Zurich and trains Swiss officers there. Now he is causing a stir with an unusual method: the expert wants to be able to calculate the end of the war in Ukraine. The forecast date is in the near future.…
todaytimeslive.com todaytimeslive.com
 
GTX said:
www.armyrecognition.com

Ukraine gains unmatched battlefield precision with M982 Excalibur GPS guided munition | Defense News July 2023 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2023 | Archive News year

Ukraine Gains Unmatched Battlefield Precision with Raytheon's Excalibur GPS guided shell
www.armyrecognition.com www.armyrecognition.com
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Russia needs to take out the GPS satellites over Russia. Though I assume NATO and the US have told Russia that's a red line not to cross?
 
Admiral Beez said:
Russia needs to take out the GPS satellites over Russia. Though I assume NATO and the US have told Russia that's a red line not to cross?
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Depends what you mean by "take out." Destroying the GPS satellites would be an absolute red line. However, jamming receipt of their signals clearly is not because Russia is doing that today.

The R-330Zh Zhitel jammer (shown below) has counter-GPS capabilities and is in use by Russian forces in Ukraine

1688668218626.png


Per this article, the R-330Zh is being used in Ukraine to jam JDAM:

rusi.org

Jamming JDAM: The Threat to US Munitions from Russian Electronic Warfare

Leaked US documents show that Russian electronic warfare may be having a negative effect on US-supplied Joint Direct Attack Munitions.
rusi.org rusi.org
 
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