"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (8 Viewers)

[SaparotRob]

Here explain a bit more on the calculations, but very superficially.

Military economist confident: - Russia lost the war in October - Today Times Live

The military economist Marcus Keupp works at the top university ETH Zurich and trains Swiss officers there. Now he is causing a stir with an unusual method: the expert wants to be able to calculate the end of the war in Ukraine. The forecast date is in the near future.…

todaytimeslive.com

Perhaps the timing is off by a couple months. The arrival of Storm Shadow/Scalp (and hopefully ATACMS) sort of corrects the timetable a bit. Should Ukraine get to Tokmak and the AFU feels it can risk a HIMARS or two, that bridge is gone. I'm hoping for a butt load of GLSDBs to show up as well and help swamp Russian air defense systems.

 

[Mike Williams]

I think the cluster shells could be a good thing:

NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@[email protected])

🔥Pentagon Speaker Pat Ryder said that Ukraine will receive cluster shells with a low submunition ratio that do not explode. https://twitter.com/DeptofDefense/status/1677024738332356609

mstdn.social

 

[SaparotRob]

Russian improvised rocket launcher spotted in Ukraine

A video of Russian forces' truck-mounted rocket launcher has begun to circulate on social media. Russian soldiers have built a Frankenstein-like artillery system on the UAZ Patriot pickup truck platform equipped with a UB-32 57mm aviation rocket pod in the

defence-blog.com

World power, huh?

 

[SaparotRob]

Russia needs to take out the GPS satellites over Russia. Though I assume NATO and the US have told Russia that's a red line not to cross?

Don't give 'em any ideas.

 

[Denniss]

maybe they have a large surplus of these rockets and launchers but running out of aircraft to attach them to or due to their short range it's too dangerous for aircraft use

 

[Admiral Beez]

maybe they have a large surplus of these rockets and launchers but running out of aircraft to attach them

Perhaps it's time to dust off those in longterm storage?

Drone Captures Massive Soviet Aircraft Graveyard - There Is A Deeper Story Behind It

Red Grave. Every successful aircraft is designed with painstaking detail in order to fit the requirements of flight while maintaining safety. A lot of work goes into these machines but they can only stay in the air for so long. Aircraft of the Soviet Union are not exempt from this rule, but where d

worldwarwings.com

 

[MiTasol]

Rare museum aircraft were already pressed into service by pro Russian separatists in captured areas of Ukraine a year ago and destroyed

 

[Admiral Beez]

Rare museum aircraft were already pressed into service by pro Russian separatists in captured areas of Ukraine a year ago and destroyed

Time to dust off the P-39s.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Russia needs to take out the GPS satellites over Russia. Though I assume NATO and the US have told Russia that's a red line not to cross?

Those satellites are owned by the US. Simply because they're in space does not mean they're free targets. It's no different than a sub sinking a ship -- the owning nation has all rights to defend its property. Destroying another nation's property is an act of war, and a line that Russia doesn't want to cross, with any NATO nation.

I bet they already know that no-go line, but if they need a warning, fine.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Ok..just HAD to share this article. Scroll down for the image showing the wigs at Prigozhin's "palace":

Wagner Group: Russian state media takes aim at Prigozhin

Piles of cash, weapons and a giant sledgehammer seen in pictures allegedly showing a raid on his home.

www.bbc.com

And here's a pic of him wearing one:

View attachment 728621

I think he's already dead, and that this is simple spin. Poisoning the well to prevent kickback from Wagner forces not already disarmed. There will be no announcement of his death at all.

 

[Greg Boeser]

I think he's already dead, and that this is simple spin. Poisoning the well to prevent kickback from Wagner forces not already disarmed. There will be no announcement of his death at all.

Probably got the old sledgehammer headache cure for good measure.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Probably got the old sledgehammer headache cure for good measure.

Putin knows a little history. Whatever happened to Nicholas II and family, and did the Bolshies make any mention at all? Lavrov said yesterday that the Russian government has no interest or ability to track the Prig, which you, me, and Aunt Jemima know is some real syrup. Russia's government has already started laying out a line for "deniability". If I were on the Wagner payroll, I'd be looking to exit... stage left. I'd go somewhere with weak LE and lotsa need for shooters.

But Prigozhin has already been shown offstage, I think. Note as well that his last communication was audio-only instead of a video. Odd change ... except that on audio you cannot see the gun.

 

[Warspite63]

Putin knows a little history. Whatever happened to Nicholas II and family, and did the Bolshies make any mention at all? Lavrov said yesterday that the Russian government has no interest or ability to track the Prig, which you, me, and Aunt Jemima know is some real syrup. Russia's government has already started laying out a line for "deniability". If I were on the Wagner payroll, I'd be looking to exit... stage left. I'd go somewhere with weak LE and lotsa need for shooters.

But Prigozhin has already been shown offstage, I think. Note as well that his last communication was audio-only instead of a video. Odd change ... except that on audio you cannot see the gun.

'the Russian government has no interest or ability to track the Prig' - which I interpret as 'we have no interest or ability 'cos he's already in hell'.........

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

'the Russian government has no interest or ability to track the Prig' - which I interpret as 'we have no interest or ability 'cos he's already in hell'.........

Mazactly. And meanwhile, turn in those AK-74s. They already know the problem's handled, and so they turn to blandishments.

Yeah ... right.

 

[Warspite63]

Mazactly. And meanwhile, turn in those AK-74s. They already know the problem's handled, and so they turn to blandishments.

Yeah ... right.

Yep ...methinks your insights are highly likely. Or maybe the unemployed Wagnerites become the happy recipients of instant draft notices.......

 

[buffnut453]

Insights into the pretzel-twisted mind of a Putin lapdog:

Lukashenko: No one came out of mutiny a hero, Belarus leader tells BBC

The Belarusian leader tells the BBC groups like Wagner must be watched closely to stop rebellions.

www.bbc.com

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Yep ...methinks your insights are highly likely. Or maybe the unemployed Wagnerites become the happy recipients of instant draft notices.......

They will be in the front lines before they get their guns back.

 

[GrauGeist]

I suspect this isn't over yet.

Wagner's elements are spread out across Russia's "holdings" and they have just as much Intel as we do, media-wise as well as inside "grapevine" comms.

*if* Prigorzhin has been snuffed, they will most likely turn on their employer.

 

[Snautzer01]

It's evident that it's a Leopard 2

View attachment 728459

Liked mine better.

"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."

Some very interesting goings on around Bakhmut. Several pro-Russian/pro-Wagner accounts (notably Rybar) are reporting rapid Ukrainian advances to the north of the city, into the town of Berkhivka or even beyond it. Ukrainian forces reportedly overran defensive points between a couple of water...

ww2aircraft.net

 

[WARSPITER]

Those satellites are owned by the US. Simply because they're in space does not mean they're free targets. It's no different than a sub sinking a ship -- the owning nation has all rights to defend its property. Destroying another nation's property is an act of war, and a line that Russia doesn't want to cross, with any NATO nation.

I bet they already know that no-go line, but if they need a warning, fine.

There was an interesting debate for a while years ago about whether satellite jamming was actually an
attack on the functional ability of the device and whether that constituted the same effect as a physical
attack.

If that is the case then other nations satellites could be said to have been attacked already.