"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (5 Viewers)

[GTX]

Belgium - Luxembourg - Netherlands Pledge M113 Armored Vehicles to Ukraine Amidst Russian Conflict | Defense News July 2023 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2023 | Archive News year

Belgium Netherlands Luxembourg will refurbish M113 Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs) from industrial stocks for delivery to Ukraine

www.armyrecognition.com

 

[GTX]

Beachgoers didn’t even try to rescue pilot of crashed Su-25

Social media users are expressing outrage that beachgoers even didn't try to rescue the pilot of the crashed Su-25 aircraft in Russia's Krasnodar region. Beachgoers watched as Russian Su-25 ground-attack and close-air-support jet into the water off Yeysk in southern

defence-blog.com

 

[GTX]

Russia amasses 100,000 troops as it seeks breakthrough in Kharkiv region, Kyiv warns

Vladimir Putin wants a big win in the face of Ukraine’s recent battlefield success in Bakhmut.

www.politico.eu

 

[SaparotRob]

Beachgoers didn’t even try to rescue pilot of crashed Su-25

Social media users are expressing outrage that beachgoers even didn't try to rescue the pilot of the crashed Su-25 aircraft in Russia's Krasnodar region. Beachgoers watched as Russian Su-25 ground-attack and close-air-support jet into the water off Yeysk in southern

defence-blog.com

I noticed that while watching the clip. I saw a powerboat underway near by the camera. It didn't seem to take action for the short period I saw. I've always seen boaters here rush to help immediately. Is it the result of training a populace not to care?

 

[Admiral Beez]

Russia amasses 100,000 troops as it seeks breakthrough in Kharkiv region, Kyiv warns

Vladimir Putin wants a big win in the face of Ukraine’s recent battlefield success in Bakhmut.

www.politico.eu

Oh, this has an air of Operation Uranus to it.

 

[Glider]

I noticed that while watching the clip. I saw a powerboat underway near by the camera. It didn't seem to take action for the short period I saw. I've always seen boaters here rush to help immediately. Is it the result of training a populace not to care?

Maybe they are people from Crimea who don't like being occupied by Russia. That said I am sure if any of us were in that power boat we would have gone to help

 

[Warspite63]

Maybe they are people from Crimea who don't like being occupied by Russia. That said I am sure if any of us were in that power boat we would have gone to help

Agreed..... you'd think the human reaction would be to go and try to assist......

 

[cammerjeff]

I agree for the most part, but I do not live in a society that crushes free thinking and taking action without permission. Add to that getting close to military equipment is also not good for your freedom and or life expectancy. So I try not to make harsh judgements. I was fortunate to be born in the country I call home. I don't know how I would react if I was born in the country the observers were born in?
I would hope I would at least try to aide a drowning person no matter what.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Agreed..... you'd think the human reaction would be to go and try to assist......

Not when you live under an authoritarian dictatorship. You survive by being the grey man, never standing out, never lending a hand, never volunteering for anything. Don't get involved is the motto.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Not when you live under an authoritarian dictatorship. You survive by being the grey man, never standing out, never lending a hand, never volunteering for anything. Don't get involved is the motto.

Have you ever read The Gulag Archipelago? If you have not, you may want to.

 

[buffnut453]

Wagner troops arrive in Belarus:

Wagner: Satellite images reveal Belarus camp arrival

A video appears to show Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin welcoming troops.

www.bbc.com

 

[Admiral Beez]

Wagner troops arrive in Belarus:

Wagner: Satellite images reveal Belarus camp arrival

A video appears to show Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin welcoming troops.

www.bbc.com

They can't sit idle for long eating up both provisions and pay.

 

[GrauGeist]

Well, this is interesting...

Putin sent Wagner to Belarus to prepare attack on Poland: Russian lawmaker

Wagner Group forces could take a key Polish region "in a matter of hours," MP Andrey Kartapolov recently alleged.

www.newsweek.com

 

[SaparotRob]

That has to be for Russian consumption.

 

[JDCAVE]

Collapses sometimes happen very rapidly once the right conditions obtain. From what I understand, the Russians haven't been able to build a reserve due to the different Ukrainian attacks, and that morale is low for many reasons. Those are both good conditions that fuel a collapse once the important ground is taken. It makes for a brittle front.

There are parallels between this and the final Allied offensives which brought victory in 1918, it seems to me.

And also the Falaise pocket in Normandy.

Falaise pocket - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

German resistance to that point had been strong with advances by the allied forces stymied. Ultimate, it was a particularly decisive battle.

 

[GrauGeist]

That has to be for Russian consumption.

Not really funny, to be honest.

The Suwalki Corridor is an issue that Poland and Lithuania have labored over for decades.

Even most recently (last year), Lithuania clamped down on traffic in the gap in spite of Russia's crying:

Why is Lithuania risking Russia’s wrath over Kaliningrad?

Lithuania imposed a ground transit ban of EU sanctioned Russian goods through its territory that will block half of all goods coming into the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad Oblast.

www.defensenews.com

Outside of Ukraine, this would be a legitimate hotspot between Russia and the dreaded NATO.

 

[SaparotRob]

Not really funny, to be honest.

The Suwalki Corridor is an issue that Poland and Lithuania have labored over for decades.

Even most recently (last year), Lithuania clamped down on traffic in the gap in spite of Russia's crying:

Why is Lithuania risking Russia’s wrath over Kaliningrad?

Lithuania imposed a ground transit ban of EU sanctioned Russian goods through its territory that will block half of all goods coming into the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad Oblast.

www.defensenews.com

Outside of Ukraine, this would be a legitimate hotspot between Russia and the dreaded NATO.

I'm aware of Suwalki Gap and its significance. It took Russia 8 or 9 months to about 30 kilometers to take Bakhmut. The rumor is they have about 100,000 troops in general area of Svatove but they still can't take Illium(?). 25,000 armor light Wagners are going to take on Poland? Poland is the third(?) largest Nato equipped, Nato trained, Nato manned, Nato Nato army in Europe. Lithuania might have smaller Air Force than Ukraine but Lithuania is surrounded by Nato Air Forces. Poland could probably do a pretty good job without backup. Heck, Lithuania can have protection with naval air forces, if only for newsreels.
Point is, it's posturing for Ivan and Ludmilla Vodkasky staring unthinkingly at Russia Today or whatever the channel is called. Those threats are empty. With what is Russia going to punch through to Kaliningrad? The mighty Belarusian Army fighting shoulder to shoulder with Wagner? Don't think Uncle Luka wants any of that.
I don't believe it.
It was good for a laugh though.

 

[GrauGeist]

I'm aware of Suwalki Gap and its significance. It took Russia 8 or 9 months to about 30 kilometers to take Bakhmut. The rumor is they have about 100,000 troops in general area of Svatove but they still can't take Illium(?). 25,000 armor light Wagners are going to take on Poland? Poland is the third(?) largest Nato equipped, Nato trained, Nato manned, Nato Nato army in Europe. Lithuania might have smaller Air Force than Ukraine but Lithuania is surrounded by Nato Air Forces. Poland could probably do a pretty good job without backup. Heck, Lithuania can have protection with naval air forces, if only for newsreels.
Point is, it's posturing for Ivan and Ludmilla Vodkasky staring unthinkingly at Russia Today or whatever the channel is called. Those threats are empty. With what is Russia going to punch through to Kaliningrad? The mighty Belarusian Army fighting shoulder to shoulder with Wagner? Don't think Uncle Luka wants any of that.
I don't believe it.
It was good for a laugh though.

Poland, as it is right now, has perhaps the strongest land military in Europe.

My point, is that Putin is desperate for a distraction. Ukraine pulled the curtain away from Russia's illusion of power, Wagner embarrassed Russia in less than 24 hours.
Russia has scraped the barrel and mustered up 100,000 "bodies", 900 "tanks" and 500 artillery pieces for a "great showdown" - who in all actuality are about to get annihilated.

They (Putin) needs a distraction.

*if* Wagner (with or without) Belarusian elements go after Suwalki, it's "not" Russia, it's mercinaries and/or Belarus according to Russia, the victim in all this. So NATO can't come at Russia.

 

[Frog]

And also the Falaise pocket in Normandy.

Falaise pocket - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

German resistance to that point had been strong with advances by the allied forces stymied. Ultimate, it was a particularly decisive battle.

I don't agree. They took horrible casualties but a great part of the German forces had already escaped, notably the trained personnel part of their Panzer forces (most of the armored was destroyed or captured). This core helped to reconstitute a potent force and because of the Allied huge replenishment problems the war was not won on winter 44.
2/3 of Allied forces casualties occurred after the Normandy battle.

 

[RogerdeLluria]

Poland, as it is right now, has perhaps the strongest land military in Europe.

My point, is that Putin is desperate for a distraction. Ukraine pulled the curtain away from Russia's illusion of power, Wagner embarrassed Russia in less than 24 hours.
Russia has scraped the barrel and mustered up 100,000 "bodies", 900 "tanks" and 500 artillery pieces for a "great showdown" - who in all actuality are about to get annihilated.

They (Putin) needs a distraction.

*if* Wagner (with or without) Belarusian elements go after Suwalki, it's "not" Russia, it's mercinaries and/or Belarus according to Russia, the victim in all this. So NATO can't come at Russia.

It appears that the eastern front has stabilized and Russian advances stopped. The 900 Russian tanks were apparently no shows. We will see, but I guess real numbers are much less.