"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (275 Viewers)

Exporting middle distillates would be a huge cash cow for Russia right now. :mad:

Jet fuel and diesel have roughly similar distillate margins (the 'crack spread' ;)). In the three months before the Iran war, this was running at an average of $24 per barrel (for jet fuel). In the last three months, it has averaged $67 per barrel.

So, if Russia is exporting refined diesel, then the exporting firm is (theoretically) earning nearly 3x per barrel what they would have in February. Even with the higher cost of crude as an input, the increased crack spread is more than enough to compensate. It's gone from averaging 26.5% of the price of a jet fuel barrel to 39.5% of the price.


Russian oil product exports were in a BAD way in August (down about 50% year-on-year :D). Technically, Russia put a self-imposed ban on refined oil products exports in May - with India, China, Egypt and Turkey taking regular (if surreptitious) deliveries. But that isn't what has halted exports. It's Ukraine's strikes on refineries, storage areas and export terminals that have really done the damage.

CERA did a good analysis: August 2026 — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions – Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
 
This is really serious.

Starlink wouldn't have been slowed down, which makes medium and long range strikes on Russia far more difficult, without the agreement of Trump. USA also seems to have stopped giving Ukraine warnings of incoming missiles from Russia which inevitably increases the impact and casualties which wouldn't have happened without Trumps instruction.
 

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