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Combat range: 3,250 mi (2,820 nmi, 5,230 km)
The combat range is in one direction. For the B-29 to bomb Germany from North America would require a combat radius of that - ie double the range.
Also, at that extreme range I would think that the bomb load is at the lower end of the scale - 5,000lbs as opposed to the 20,000lb maximum.
For comparison, the distance from the Marianas Islands to Tokyo is about 1,500 miles.
I think you need a manual or some other source with range/speed/payload and altitude listed/charted. Joe Baugher's web site gives a radius of 1600 miles at high altitude (ft not given) with a 5,000lb load with the speed not given AND the same 1600 mile radius carrying 12,000lbs at medium altitude. Actual altitude and speed/s not given.
The B-29 should be able to bomb a return mission from New York area to Berlin and back. The solution is fairly simple. Restrict bomb load to 4000lbs, increase MTOW by 20,000lbs by adding 27,000lbs of fuel. The increase weight will required a longer, sealed runway. 10,000ft runway for safety should be enough. The extra tankage could be unprotected, there would be some restrictions in g limits until the extra fuel was burned of that would be of non consequence to the mission.
It's mainly a matter of a long enough runway.
The German effort in this area was the Me 264, with 4 x 2100hp DB603H engine (using C3 fuel) it was reckoned to be able to conduct a 15000km mission carrying a 2000kg/4400lb bomb load half way. The Me 264 flew in 1943 with 1400hp Jumo 211 engines and so the Germans had good aerodynamic data. With the 4 x 2100hp engines its take off field length was expected to be 2040 meters (about 1400m with RATO) which is about the same as an Me 262 Jet fully loaded. The DB603A was available in 1943 at 1750hp and by late 1944 2100hp was available from the Jumo 213A1 and 2260hp from the DB603LA (used on Fw 109D9 and TA152C respectively) so had the aircraft not been caught up in politics and priorities it could have attempted missions late 1944 or early 1945.
The B-29 was a bit larger and less refined for the ultra longe range missions but had more powerful engines, at least earlier. DB603 roadmap would have had it matching R-3350 power some time in 1945.
From the chart in post #8 the B-29 had a radius of 2000NM ( 2300 statute miles) carrying about 5,000lb of bombs at 215 knts (247mph) at a take-off weight of 140,000lbs or 20,000lbs over the "normal" take-off figure. These appear to be post war data, but it sure looks like a New York base is out.
St Johns Newfoundland to Berlin is 2840 miles and cuts over 1000 miles off the New York distance.
Bombing at vlr without escort would have been suicide for these precious aircraft. .
The contingency would have been to fortify Icleand, possible invasion of Azores (but the Spanish had well over 40000 troops there, and an invasion would entail a DOW on Spain....). in the absence of the Azorees, the US wouyld have moved to fortify and reinforce Gibraltor, and this would have required invasion of french North Africa, probably from the middle of 1942, or even earlier (assuming they would inevitably get involved earlier than December 1941). inevitably the sanctions that forced the Japanese to go war would have been relaxed, with no British partner in any condition to support them, that frees some naval assets and most of the combat ready troops for early operations on the periphery.The Commonwealth would have ramped up its war efforts, and easily have held North Africa against even the most determined assaults by the Axis, excepting Turkish acquiesence, but even there, unlikley that anything other than a bloddy stalemate in the mountains of the Anatolian plateau.
Its not really feasible for B-29s to bomb from the US, but it is still a winnable war, albeit at much greater cost to the US. Would they be prepred to pay the price for that victory....casualties in the millions probably