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Even if they did notice the P-36s going away, it was probably too late for any remaining spies to do anything about it. With a war on, no Japanese Consulate on the island, radio transmissions scrutinized, and all local Japanese suspect, they would have had to rely on secure but slow means of getting their info to Tokyo.
ComPacAAF surely would have noticed and not been happy with the idea. With Kido Butai on the loose, position unknown, destination SUSPECTED, he would have been most unwilling to give up his reserves. Army didn't have anywhere near as much faith in "that den of spooks led by a damn degenerate" as the Navy did. "Hell, he goes to work in bathrobe and bedroom :slippers! No sense of military bearing, dress or tradition at all!"
Cheers,
Wes
Hello Shortround6, I was on a phone yesterday and missed your post completely. A quick reply to the points you made.
There are 21 Buffalos and 6 or 7 Wildcats already on Midway along with 20 or so B17's, 4 B26's, 6 Avengers and 27 Dauntless and Vindicator dive-bombers.
I AM TRYING TO FIGHT THIS BATTLE AS IF I DID NOT KNOW THE FUTURE (not yelling, all caps so you would understand that)
I am using Wildcats and P36's because I am only using what was historically available and might reasonably be released, (thats why there aren't Spitfires, Corsairs, P38's, P47's, Bearcats, F22 Raptors and nuclear weapons). Hawaii would not release P39's or P40's (very reasonable) because of possible attack on Pearl Harbor. They MIGHT release the 'obsolete' P36's, so I included them.
My plan follows historical timeline with what was available: Halsey gets message to return to Pearl. Suspecting something big is up, he sends SBD to Noumeou (spelling?) island and retrieves the 21 Wildcats he just left there and bring them back with him. Gets back, is briefed on Midway. They know (they think they know and were right) when and where attack is coming. They think 4 or 5 Japanese carriers, they would discuss how many planes per ship, size of 1st strike, reserve strike held on ship in case we, US, fleet shows up. Lots of talk and discussion.
Some one says, "we know when and where a big strike is coming, correct? Then lets ambush the first raid with a huge fighter defense. These are some of, if not THE finest carrier pilots in the world, lets thin them out before we engage with our carriers. We know the date, surely they will attack at dawn, we have radar, lets have a large group in the air and thin these guys out"
"Whats available?" "Well ADM Halsey brought back 21 Wildcats from Noumeou, Yorktown is bringing back 15 airworthy F4F3's and after all the replacements on the 3 carriers are done we have 10 F4F4's that are unused. That gives us 46 Wildcats."
"What about some P39 or P40's?"
AAF guy "We can't release any from Pearl Harbor defense in case your intelligence is incorrect. We have 22 old P36's that I guess we could let go. They aren't any good to us anyway"
"Ok. Lets get those P36's in shape right now, change engines if needed, toss in 2 50's and add some armor behind the pilot. Its the least we can do for the pilots. We will send out the 31 Wildcats and 22 P36's on the Hornet as a deck load. Enterprise will escort her to Midway where they will deposit the deck load fighters and then withdrew a reasonable distance and wait for the first attack. Also, when Yorktown gets here I want all 15 of her F4F-3's brought as close to 100% as possible. You'll have about 3 days for that. We will send them back with Yorktown if she gets fixed in time. We will add B17's as long-range scouts and bombers, everything else on the island will be a fighter."
This is the alternate timeline discussion as I picture it happening. I see everything discussed above as being reasonable and possible.
Shortround6, no to answer your specific questions: Fighters arrive with full ammo, partial fuel, how long to fill them up? They could arrive a couple of days ahead of the actual attack on morning of June 4, but I replaced 37 bombers with 68 extra fighters, so they should have no trouble getting fuel and oil tanks topped before the actual battle so for at least the first Japanese raid, all fighter aircraft would be ready to go.
The B17's departed before dawn so parking for B17's could now be used to spread fighters out a bit more.
When the Japanese fleet and then first attack wave was sighted, all the planes on Midway were on the runway with pilots in the cockpits and engines running. THEY KNEW ATTACK WAS COMING THAT MORNING. All the Midway fighters and bombers were scrambled starting at 0552 and the airfield was empty by 0600 according to The First Team (the air raid siren went off earlier but the pilots couldn't hear it and they had to send a truck down to tell them to take off!)
I would have say 20 Wildcats on CAP over Midway.
How many could take off at once? How fast could they get everyone up? I don't know. What I do know is that at Guadalcanal, they scrambled some pretty large groups of fighters and bombers pretty quick, and we all know that Guadalcanal was a nasty, muddy, half completed, 1 runway nightmare. Midway has 3 modern paved runways. I would think that they could get 75 fighters off pretty quick.
How many at a time could go down one of those runways? 2? 3? How much time in between each group? 15 seconds? 20? 30?
2 at a time, 30 second spacing is 4 a minute 19-20 minutes to get everyone off. 2 at a time 15 second spacing is 8 per minute, 10 minutes to get everyone off. 3 at a time, 15 second spacing gets everyone gone in 6 minutes.
Level bomber attacks started at 0634, dive bomber attacks started at 0640.
If everyone is off the runway by 0600, as historically all 37 bombers and 27 fighters were (all B17's had left EARLY that morning) then that gives US fighters 30 minutes to climb and assemble into some sort of attack group (or multiple attack groups with Marines flying together, AAF flying together, Wildcats together, P36's together and Buffaloes together, so probably 4 different groups) if they attacked just barely out of flak range. One thing about this plan, THEY CANT SINK MIDWAY.
So first attack happens. Japanese leave, our fighters land. Runways should be good considering 90+ fighters just interrupted the bomb run.
The Japanese have to return to carriers, tell them that there is need of another attack, land what is left of 1st strike, remove torpedoes and re-arm level bombers with bombs, take off, and fly back. This will take several hours. So Midway has several hours to refuel and re-arm its fighters. On Guadalcanal, Marine grunts jumped in and helped re-arm, refuel and even hang bombs and torpedoes on Henderson field airplanes. I would show them how to refuel, add oil and re-arm these fighters the day they arrived so they could help get them ready for second wave.
Shortround6 (and everyone else) take a look at that and see if that plan seems reasonable with what was available and when.
Ponsog, I am afraid your scenario could not be accomplished. The time frame is wrong. In May It had been only six months since the US suffered the gut blow of Pearl Harbor. In spite of the Tokyo raid, America was still reeling trying to recover from the shock and was in the process of organizing for defense. At this time, the Navy only had three carriers operational in the Pacific theater, the Japanese had ten. The Navy had no battleships available, the Japanese had seven. The Japanese Navy could roam the Pacific at will. Because of code breaking at the first of 1942, the Navy knew a major Japanese offense was underway but there was a great debate on where the strike would occur. Nimitz thought Midway, HQ Washington thought Aleutians, Hawaii, or US. Force deployment, even prepositioning could not occur until the target was identified because no one would be willing to weaken their defenses if they could be the target. Verification of the target did not occur until mid May(see reference), about TWO WEEKS BEFORE FORCES NEEDED TO BE IN PLACE AT MIDWAY. That means he would have to convince the various commands to provide support, which the Army, which Nimitz had no control over, would not do, and that is depleting defensive forces at Hawaii to save Midway (see RAF response to request of help from France at the start of WWII), muster the forces, organize the transportation, and execute deployment. All in one week. Impossible. Then on arrival, forces had to be organized, integrated and dispersed, in a week. Very difficult. And certainly not without alerting possible Japanese spies in Hawaii.
In my opinion, with the Japanese massive fleet at sea and with the location unknown, Nimitz's, hands were tied and could not mobilize. Once the target was verified, with two weeks to fight, Nimitz, who had a far better understanding of available asset than we do, mobilized everything available and did a miraculous job in a high risk environment.
Ref.
Preparations for the Midway Operation
The reason they had 3 runways (and there may have been 6, I am no Midway expert and don't know when the the 2nd airfield went in)
is that you use the one facing into the wind or closest to facing into the wind. A triangular layout gives you six options and in some cases the triangle is "squished" to accommodate prevailing wind directions.
Not all runways were equal either.
Nov 1941.
Trying to use multiple runways at the same time sounds like something the New Jersey DOT would do (plenty of cousins/brother-in-laws with tow trucks/body shops)
I would also question your P-36 refurbishment plan.
i have no idea what shape the P-36s were in and many of them may have had engines with a quite a bit of life left. Opposing that is that there probably weren't very many spare engines at Pearl for them. Possible engine doners would be C-47s and Catalinas.
F4F engines won't fit without a LOT of hammering and sawing (two stage supercharger) and the Navy is unlikey to hand over any spare engines anyway.
The P-36 had one .50 cal in cowling, it might be possible to replace the cowl .30 cal with a 2nd .50 cal. but trying to add .50 cal to the wing or under wing is probably not possible in the time available. I have never heard of an early P-40 ever getting .50 cal guns in the wings for example.
You have no self-sealing fuel tanks unless you can strip some out of the P-40 wrecks at Pearl (a source for pilot seat armor?)
How does the Noumea command feel about Halsey stripping the fighter defense he just delivered to them on a whim? Never been in the Navy but I don't think Halsey could have just said, "hey bring those back", weren't they allocated to another base?
While I believe I get your reasoning, I'm still hazy on why the American carriers are SE of Midway instead of North, you know, on the flank of the IJN, where Nimitz expected to spring his trap from. Again, I've never been an admiral in charge of a fleet (in that I'm sure I'm not alone here) but Nimitz et. al. (the trained professionals) did what they did for a reason.
Also (again), the Navy and AAF sent everything that Midway could handle, the quip that if they sent one more airplane the island may sink comes to mind. You know, these ground crew, repair teams (ship and plane) and supply folks are already working pretty hard to get the traditional resources ready for battle, now their taxed with getting obsolete fighters from training command combat ready. Adding guns and armor, swapping engines, at some point your system becomes overloaded and grinds to a halt.
I said it before, these guys that did this in real life were digging into every possible scenario to prepare for the battle, I'm pretty sure they would have considered a batch of P-36's but came to their senses pretty quick. A case can be made I suppose using the few Buffaloes that were sent as a reason to add the P-36s, but that's already been addressed earlier I believe because they were not only advanced trainers but a strategic reserve of sorts.
I'll bow out for real this time as I really don't see this going anywhere, I don't think it's a bad idea, just not one the professionals would have done (and didn't).
It's a nice "what if" but I think it's already out lived it's shelf life.
I know it might seem obvious but all these changes to the P36 will add a lot of weight and its handleing which was a real bonus will almost certainly be significantly reduced. Problems with COG are also certain to arise, an increase in drag and of course performance in particular climb. Val without a bomb load may well fancy its chances against such an opponent
The assumption that the US could set an ambush is also optimistic. Being able to crack codes is one thing, to get them decoded in time and distributed to those who need them in as close to real time as possible is quite another.
It's also quite a complex plan and they have a high probability of going very wrong