BoB Mathematical Modeling of Alternative Outcomes

[Admiral Beez]

IMO, Germany's plans for invasion of Britain should have focused on neutralizing the RN, not the RAF. If the RN is neutralized, the Luftwaffe can be concentrated against whatever the RAF can throw against the invasion fleet. And that's the crux of the matter, it's the RN that will destroy the invasion force, and the Germans have no real means to stop the RN.

 

[pbehn]

Below the distance Calais to Central London 160km/100 miles

An Me 109 at maximum cruise could fly 400 miles or 600 miles at economy cruise. Allowing 20% reserves, 100 miles for combat (probably only 50 miles at full combat power) and 20 miles for forming up leaves us an operational range radius of 100 miles.
View attachment 606164

Below the distance Calais to Birmingham/Coventry 320km 200 miles. With a drop tank adding 300L to the 400L internal fuel. We can probably operate at 320km or 200 miles from base so long as the drop tanks aren't dropped early.

View attachment 606165

As you can see the Luftwaffe stands no chance without a long range escort eg the the Fw 187 with DB601 engines.



The Kriegsmarine have radar. Do the Germans need to use barges at night?



The Kriegsmarine had Seetakt radar on all destroyers, cruisers and battleships. FuMO 22 had about 6 degrees beam width and an operator could localise a target to within 1 degree.

No enough for blind fire but enough to illuminate with star shell or a powerful searchlight. Latter versions of Seetakt (late 1940?) received lobe switching and could blind fire accurately.

The German Army could avoid using its most vulnerable vessels at night.

The German navy had fairly good night optics due to more optically clear glass and multi coat optics that minimised internal reflections in multi lens night fighting binoculars. They'd still be outnumbered by the RN.



Good question. Its covered well on the NAVWEAPS website.

Ju 87 as dive bombers, Me 110 as slide bombers (quite accurate), Ju 88 as dive bombers and He 111 and He 115 as torpedo bombers. Do 17 as level bombers, probably throwing a stick of 4 x 250kg bombs from 1500m or so. Bombs fused for 5 second delay unless hard impact. If they hit ahead of the waterline they sink and blow up underneath causing more damage than a direct hit. The Me 109 could strafe. The British ships have very good fire control but the pom pom has bad ballistics and spoils this not solved till the boffors was used instead.

Of course by September 1940 I think the drop tank and bomb capable version of the Me 109E4B and Me 109E7B were turning up.



I imagine the Barges would have 1 or 2 sets of C30 or C38 20mm FLAK guns so not totally defenceless. German Torpedo Boats (about 900 tons) and e-boats would be around.

Again the Barges could avoid movement at night.

I know the distances, I have travelled the route many times. I was not quoting from stated performance of individual aircraft but from what actually happened on the daylight mass raids on London. Fighters had to form up, then form up with the bombers and then proceed to the target. The actual raids were cursed with head winds that reduced ground speed to as low as 120MPH, and the escorts had to stay with them zig zagging or circling to keep their air speed up in case of attack. A Bf 109 taking off from Calais climbing and flying at its most economical settings has not reached escort height by the time it crosses the English coast. The Bf 109 was so marginal on fuel that even a small error on timing, or some change in weather could and did send the mission FUBAR, it would be much worse on a mission to Birmingham and a twin engine escort is no solution at all. The fighters which first engaged any attack would have time to land and re fuel re arm or just jump into another plane and have another go at the attackers as they withdrew.

 

[pbehn]

IMO, Germany's plans for invasion of Britain should have focused on neutralizing the RN, not the RAF. If the RN is neutralized, the Luftwaffe can be concentrated against whatever the RAF can throw against the invasion fleet. And that's the crux of the matter, it's the RN that will destroy the invasion force, and the Germans have no real means to stop the RN.

I agree, then when they realised they couldn't they should have said "I think we made a mistake, anyone fancy a game of football"?

 

[fastmongrel]

One of my favourite facts about the invasion plan was the requirement to land 57,000 horses on the beaches. I don't know much about horses but I know one end bites, the other end kicks and the middle bit doesn't like boats.

 

[pbehn]

One of my favourite facts about the invasion plan was the requirement to land 57,000 horses on the beaches. I don't know much about horses but I know one end bites, the other end kicks and the middle bit doesn't like boats.

It is a long way from Aintree, Ascot and Epsom what were they thinking?

 

[Shortround6]

It is a long way from Aintree, Ascot and Epsom what were they thinking?

They wouldn't have to transport fuel for trucks as the Horses could eat English grass????

 

[pbehn]

They wouldn't have to transport fuel for trucks as the Horses could eat English grass????

Any horse that wants to eat its way to Aintree should be left in France because of its terminal stupidity.

 

[Shortround6]

Ground cover is ground cover right?

Just like some posters want the British to build more Mosquitos because they are made out of wood and trees grow in England.
Wood is wood...........right........?????????

Not the horse, it's the owner/operators

 

[pbehn]

Ground cover is ground cover right?

Just like some posters want the British to build more Mosquitos because they are made out of wood and trees grow in England.
Wood is wood...........right........?????????

Not the horse, it's the owner/operators

It was just a Christmas joke, this is what happens at Aintree, frequently carnage.

 

[Shortround6]

Sort of like rugby for horses. Start with 15 a side and if you have 10 left that can walk at half time it is a good game.

Not sure the horses want to be there, jockeys either.

 

[pbehn]

Sort of like rugby for horses. Start with 15 a side and if you have 10 left that can walk at half time it is a good game.

Not sure the horses want to be there, jockeys either.

Sometimes the Grand National race is worse, less than half finish I think the lowest was a quarter. The jockeys certainly like it, you cant really say about the horses but one horse "Red Rum" won the Grand National 3 times and was second twice, as far as anyone can tell from animal traits he enjoyed every moment he was at the course and he knew what he was there for.

 

[Shortround6]

Getting somewhat back on track with the "German" Barges (of the 2400?? collected less than 900 were German)
One discussion board says " Only 860 out of 2,400 barges came from Germany. The invasion barges also came from France (350); and Holland and Belgium (1,200).

we have this photo.

and this chart.

Obviously there is a huge variation in the barges in size and capability. Barges built to haul coal and iron ore are going to ride high when load with men and military supplies.
Helps when beaching if trimmed by the stern so the soldiers don't have to wade through 1.75 meter water. Helps with reduced flooding with waves coming over the side.
Does increase side area exposed to the wind and reduce the "grip" on the water (cross wind blows the barge sideways easier)

Some of the German Rhine river self propelled barges might well have been able to to do 6kts or better if lightly loaded. However with so many of the barges unpowered the powered ones may have (or may not?) have been tasked with towing one or more unpowered barges. Germans had also collected a number of tug boats for towing duties.

Another photo

 

[PAT303]

Simple question, if you had a line of barges towed by a powered barge or tug boat how was the powered craft going to land the unpowered ones on the beach?, was the tug going to make a sharp turn at the last minute and then hope they drift to shore in an orderly way to allow the men to disembark after they finish arse ending one another?. How were they going to be recovered?, was the tug them going to sail back in and drag the line of barges back off the beach and tow them back to France, not forgetting all this will be done fighting waves, current, wind, machine gun fire, destroyers cruisers half a dozen 14'' 15'' and 16'' armed battleships, hundreds of Spitfires Hurricanes Wellingtons only to do it all over a gain the next day and for every day after that for weeks on end?. I'm game if you are.

 

[Koopernic]

Simple question, if you had a line of barges towed by a powered barge or tug boat how was the powered craft going to land the unpowered ones on the beach?, was the tug going to make a sharp turn at the last minute and then hope they drift to shore in an orderly way to allow the men to disembark after they finish arse ending one another?. How were they going to be recovered?, was the tug them going to sail back in and drag the line of barges back off the beach and tow them back to France, not forgetting all this will be done fighting waves, current, wind, machine gun fire, destroyers cruisers half a dozen 14'' 15'' and 16'' armed battleships, hundreds of Spitfires Hurricanes Wellingtons only to do it all over a gain the next day and for every day after that for weeks on end?. I'm game if you are.

This could be in theme lecture https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/GERMAN PLANS FOR INVASION OF ENGLAND, 1940_0001.pdf

These are the landing craft the Germans are developing.
Landing Crafts

 

[PAT303]

These are the landing craft the Germans are developing.
Landing Crafts

None were available for the invasion of England and only 700 were made over the entire war, the article says river barges will be used for sealion.

 

[ThomasP]

Joining this thread a little late. After doing a bit of research re 'was radar invented or developed?' and 'who invented it?', I found this:

"https://ieee-aess.org/sites/ieee-aess.org/files/documents/paper_v4.pdf"

Note in particular the description of the patent content. Although I was aware of Hulsmeyer having developed an early crude radar detection device in the early-1900s, I was not aware of the depth of his ideas until now.

IEEE = Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
AESS = Aerospace and Electronic Systems Society (not Association for Environmental Studies and Sciences)

 

[fastmongrel]

Joining this thread a little late. After doing a bit of research re 'was radar invented or developed?' and 'who invented it?', I found this:

"https://ieee-aess.org/sites/ieee-aess.org/files/documents/paper_v4.pdf"

Note in particular the description of the patent content. Although I was aware of Hulsmeyer having developed an early crude radar detection device in the early-1900s, I was not aware of the depth of his ideas until now.

IEEE = Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
AESS = Aerospace and Electronic Systems Society (not Association for Environmental Studies and Sciences)

Everyone was working on some variation of radar during the pre war period. Britain however was the only country that invented the integrated system of detection and control still used by almost every plane in the air today.

 

[Koopernic]

Joining this thread a little late. After doing a bit of research re 'was radar invented or developed?' and 'who invented it?', I found this:

"https://ieee-aess.org/sites/ieee-aess.org/files/documents/paper_v4.pdf"

Note in particular the description of the patent content. Although I was aware of Hulsmeyer having developed an early crude radar detection device in the early-1900s, I was not aware of the depth of his ideas until now.

IEEE = Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
AESS = Aerospace and Electronic Systems Society (not Association for Environmental Studies and Sciences)

Husselmeyers radar worked. It was of such high frequency it had a search light like narrow beam. By placing it in the mast of a ship and pointing down it could triangulate to any object up to a few km away. Apparently it false alarmed occasionally and the investors got cold feet and Admiral Tirpitz deigned to support it. All this before the invention of the vacuum tube. A few years or development probably would have given us reliable radar before titanic fateful voyage.

 

[Koopernic]

Everyone was working on some variation of radar during the pre war period. Britain however was the only country that invented the integrated system of detection and control still used by almost every plane in the air today.

i wouldn't really agree. Everyone had an extensive air reporting service that relied on visual, acoustic and sometimes radio emissions. The German Freyas integrated into this existing system. They had I believe 12-25 operating by the battle of France. What was unique was that the British had developed a reasonable IFF system. I think they'd had 1 maybe 2 goes at it before getting it right but ofcourse kudos for recognizing the importance of the issue. You will remember the excellent US SCR-272 picked up the incoming Japanese Perl Harbour raid but mistook it as B17 on ferry flights. The lack of IFF was the issue. The Germans under Telefunken had developed a system called FuG 25 for Wurzburg A radar that was a failure after thousands had been produced. . It was modified by GEMA (Seetakt maker) to create FuG 25a Erstling using existing cabinets. These IFF transponders systems then became the basis of Oboe and the German EGON blind bombing system.

 

[Koopernic]

Getting somewhat back on track with the "German" Barges (of the 2400?? collected less than 900 were German)
One discussion board says " Only 860 out of 2,400 barges came from Germany. The invasion barges also came from France (350); and Holland and Belgium (1,200).

we have this photo.
View attachment 606375
and this chart.
View attachment 606376
Obviously there is a huge variation in the barges in size and capability. Barges built to haul coal and iron ore are going to ride high when load with men and military supplies.
Helps when beaching if trimmed by the stern so the soldiers don't have to wade through 1.75 meter water. Helps with reduced flooding with waves coming over the side.
Does increase side area exposed to the wind and reduce the "grip" on the water (cross wind blows the barge sideways easier)

Some of the German Rhine river self propelled barges might well have been able to to do 6kts or better if lightly loaded. However with so many of the barges unpowered the powered ones may have (or may not?) have been tasked with towing one or more unpowered barges. Germans had also collected a number of tug boats for towing duties.

Another photo
View attachment 606377

The schematic image of "barges" is actually of many of propellor ships. The word "Schiff" means "Ship" and has an engine and the word "Kahn" means barge. These are mostly powered ships. If it's not got the work Kahn or Schiff in it then it's a type been commandeered from the Dutch. I dont accept the speed as being limited to 6 knots. First I think speed and distance on german rivers is measured in km. You don't use celestial navigatio. Secondly a speed of 6 knots is too low. I suggest a Rhine river ship would have a speed of 18kmh (9 knots) in water that was 9m deep. This would reduce to about half that in 4-5 meter water due to bow wave interaction with the river bed. 4 knots would maybe represent the "land" speed when traveling upstream against the flow and 6 knots the down stream speed. The 4-6 numbers don't make sense. I suggest a max speed of 18 km/h makes sense, that's 9 knots. So a cruise of 7-8 knots. I suggest soldiers would be high value cargo on powered ships. I think the normal FLAK that accompanied German battalions would be positioned on the barges defensively. I also suggest an MG42 is an effective weapon against British boats getting within 1200m.