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IMO that's a rather lame excuse.took a very long time to work up the expanded US army because of its very small starting base
Guys, I don't want to start an alternative history discussion here, but in your opinions Germany could have defeated the Soviets if taked Stalingrad and subsequentely the oil fields? Germany would have logistical capabilities for this? (in certain way this is inside the topic)
IMO that's a rather lame excuse.
It's easy to see why Stalin thought we should have a couple armies in Europe during 1942. We had plenty of divisions. If they weren't trained two years after the 1940 mobilization then someone wasn't doing his job.
Guys, I don't want to start an alternative history discussion here, but in your opinions Germany could have defeated the Soviets if taked Stalingrad and subsequentely the oil fields? Germany would have logistical capabilities for this? (in certain way this is inside the topic)
Why?german forces at the Caspian sea and in the Caucasus would have nightmarish supply lines
Why?
There are good rail lines extending into the Caucasus from Germany. Certainly better then what an Anglo-American army operating from northern Iran would have.
Stricktly speaking the immidiate problems for the Germans was that they didn't possess forces or logistics to take both Srtalingrad and the oil in the Caucasus region.
IMO? They didn't have the logistic capability to take either...
My earlier post might give the impression that a german Victory at Stalingrad could have won the war for them, if so it gives the wrong impression. In and by itself stalingrad was of minor importance, the best course of action woulkd probably have been to maski the city and pour all offensive assets into the southern drive. But there's no guarantee that would have led to success.
But how to support it? The closest railhead that was converted/upgraded to DRG (Reichsbahn Ost) standards in November of 1942 was at Stalino.
If it led to success, and if Germany could have consolidated this gain (they just might have, though I doubt it), USSR would have been in a weakened postion.
Not a hope of this happening...to address to question in the OP? The reason the Airlift into Stalingrad failed had a lot to do with the FACT that the Luftwaffe's air transport assets were already HEAVILY engaged supplying Heer and Luftwaffe combat assets in the Caucasus push, in addition to the needs of Luftwaffe combat units operating in the Don bend area (i.e. the fuel/spares needs of JG3 and JG52 at Pitomnik. All of this supply was being moved from the above noted railhead to the airfields by truck, rehandled onto aircraft, and subsequently flown in to those who were screaming the loudest at the moment. Reichsbahn Ost had expressed grave reservations about their ability to properly support Fall Blau when the planning was underway in the Spring of 1942. Another poster made note of the reservations expressed by von Richthofen (et al) /I] regarding the possibility of delivering on Jeschonnek's impulsive promises? They already knew they were overtaxed (as it were) and with the weather quickly turning, it was only going to get tougher to keep the sortie numbers up.
They would have less oil, but this could have been alleviated through lend-lease.
The "shoe was on the other foot" by this point in time. What of the forces that conducted the Uranus operation? You don't have to be a genius to see that the Germans were severely overstretched as it was. So they decide to establish a defensive line on the Don and "go for it" in the South? I see a massive Soviet offensive directed on the Rostov axis cutting the German salient off. Such an outcome would make the "Stalingrad" losses look like a pimple on the *ss of an elephant.
This lend-lease in itself would have been hampered as most of the lease through Persia would have been cut off.
Only in another universe; IOTL?
It would have been possible for the germans to improve their supply of petrol, although how much and how soon is open to question.
Maybe 18 months down the road once they managed to put the fields back into production and sorted out the logistics (tankers/pipelines) to get the crude across the Black Sea to the mouth of the Danube so they could trans ship it to Romania for refining.
On the other hand (providing Turkey remained neutral) german forces at the Caspian sea and in the Caucasus would have nightmarish supply lines, only to be partly offset IF turkey joining the axis.
They already HAD "nightmarish" supply lines...
Still I don't think they would have defeated the USSR. Had they succeeded they would still only have reached (approximately) one of the three points on the AAA line which they (according to shedule) should have reached six weeks after july 22 1941. IMHO the war effectivelyt was lost when the Wehrmacht stalled in front of Moscow, at the wery latest.
Well at last we agree on something (or maybe we've been in agreement all along? 8) ). Barbarossa failed on logistics, so did Blau.
Why?
There are good rail lines extending into the Caucasus from Germany. Certainly better then what an Anglo-American army operating from northern Iran would have.
Not in 1942, at least in working condition. After the abortive Soviet offensive that captured Kharkov in the winter of 41-2, the supply heads for AGS were pushed back several hundred miles. The German Rail Authority was already struggling in the east to keep frontline units supplied by that time, and complete the repairs to the Soviet rail system. Germany had started the war in Russia short of both rolling stock and prime movers, and had found much of its German locomotives and carriages unsuitable for the eastern front. These problems were eventually solved, by modification to both the rolling stock and the trains, but such work was slow. The states of many bridges and rail lines in Russia were found to be extremely poor, and the captured equipment fell apart very raipdly.
All of these problems were eventaually solved, but it all took time, and time was something germany did not have. moreover the stockpiles of supplies needed to repair or replace sections of track, install water and coaling stations, develop marshalling yards and the like had been basically used up in the 1941 campaign. Replacement supplies of this kind were slow in being produced and brought to the front where needed. moreover the German State Railways were beginning to suffer the first of their acute manpower shortages. They attempted to remedy this by employing local labour, but this proved rather abortive and unsuccessful.
The result of all this was that the advances achieved under Fall blau were not matched by a repair and re-gauging effort much beyond the start lines. This is one reason why Stalingrad, and the advance of 1Pz and 17 Army into the Caucasus became logistic nightmares for the Germans. The rail lines that you are relying on were there, damaged and inoperable, and they basically remained as such until recaptured by the Russians in the winter of 42-3. After the capture of the oilfields in Maikop, the German Supply Ministry (I think it was them) undertook an investigation and found that the oil wells were so badly damaged, it would take an estimated 2-3 years to restore them back to production, and would have required the diversion of military supply arriving by rail into the TO to the tune of a reduction of military traffic by an estimated 50% (I will confirm that figure tonite). Since military supply traffic on ASGS never exceeded 70% of estimated requirements, that means that the whole AG would have needed to reduce its daily military supply expenditursres to about 35% of what it thought it actually required, in order to restore these lines and network to anything like operational condition, and restore the economic infrastructure to working order. In other words, whilst Germany remained locked in combat with the USSR in major operations, it was impossible to extend the working rail network much beyond what it already was.
By comparison, the effort put into uprading the Iranian and Persian rail networks is generally unknown, and really quite astonishing. India has a rolling stock reserve bigger than the whole of Germany at this time, and in 1942 something like 45%of Indian rolling stock was moved to Persia for supply operations to support the Russians. The Americans provided very significant levels of prime movers to haul this rolling stock. Vast numbers of railway workers were shipped out from the US to build up the persian rail network. It was an effort far bigger than the Germans were capable of in Southern Russia at that time. The fact that the transfer of the Indian rolling stock probably was a major cause of the 43 famine in bengal (where more than 2million people perished from starvation) is worth noting, but not really relevant to the issue. There is just no way that the germans, despite operating on interior lines could match the logistic effort mounted by the allies into persia in 42-3, neither could a few well placed bombs make much difference, or cause delay to the re-supply activities. The Persian route for Lend lease was far bigger than the murmansk run, and this was a massive effort in itself.
Martin Van Crevald + Alfred Meiezejewski = The Reality of Reichsbahn Ost. Thanks for the "like"; back at ya!Not in 1942, at least in working condition. After the abortive Soviet offensive that captured Kharkov in the winter of 41-2, the supply heads for AGS were pushed back several hundred miles. The German Rail Authority was already struggling in the east to keep frontline units supplied by that time, and complete the repairs to the Soviet rail system. Germany had started the war in Russia short of both rolling stock and prime movers, and had found much of its German locomotives and carriages unsuitable for the eastern front. These problems were eventually solved, by modification to both the rolling stock and the trains, but such work was slow. The states of many bridges and rail lines in Russia were found to be extremely poor, and the captured equipment fell apart very raipdly.
All of these problems were eventaually solved, but it all took time, and time was something germany did not have. moreover the stockpiles of supplies needed to repair or replace sections of track, install water and coaling stations, develop marshalling yards and the like had been basically used up in the 1941 campaign. Replacement supplies of this kind were slow in being produced and brought to the front where needed. moreover the German State Railways were beginning to suffer the first of their acute manpower shortages. They attempted to remedy this by employing local labour, but this proved rather abortive and unsuccessful.
The result of all this was that the advances achieved under Fall blau were not matched by a repair and re-gauging effort much beyond the start lines. This is one reason why Stalingrad, and the advance of 1Pz and 17 Army into the Caucasus became logistic nightmares for the Germans. The rail lines that you are relying on were there, damaged and inoperable, and they basically remained as such until recaptured by the Russians in the winter of 42-3. After the capture of the oilfields in Maikop, the German Supply Ministry (I think it was them) undertook an investigation and found that the oil wells were so badly damaged, it would take an estimated 2-3 years to restore them back to production, and would have required the diversion of military supply arriving by rail into the TO to the tune of a reduction of military traffic by an estimated 50% (I will confirm that figure tonite). Since military supply traffic on ASGS never exceeded 70% of estimated requirements, that means that the whole AG would have needed to reduce its daily military supply expenditursres to about 35% of what it thought it actually required, in order to restore these lines and network to anything like operational condition, and restore the economic infrastructure to working order. In other words, whilst Germany remained locked in combat with the USSR in major operations, it was impossible to extend the working rail network much beyond what it already was.
By comparison, the effort put into uprading the Iranian and Persian rail networks is generally unknown, and really quite astonishing. India has a rolling stock reserve bigger than the whole of Germany at this time, and in 1942 something like 45%of Indian rolling stock was moved to Persia for supply operations to support the Russians. The Americans provided very significant levels of prime movers to haul this rolling stock. Vast numbers of railway workers were shipped out from the US to build up the persian rail network. It was an effort far bigger than the Germans were capable of in Southern Russia at that time. The fact that the transfer of the Indian rolling stock probably was a major cause of the 43 famine in bengal (where more than 2million people perished from starvation) is worth noting, but not really relevant to the issue. There is just no way that the germans, despite operating on interior lines could match the logistic effort mounted by the allies into persia in 42-3, neither could a few well placed bombs make much difference, or cause delay to the re-supply activities. The Persian route for Lend lease was far bigger than the murmansk run, and this was a massive effort in itself.
That's why some people, specially from the wartime, belived that the multi front war cost Germany the defeat. They simply didn't have the capability to maintein the fight against all their enemies.
Martin Van Crevald + Alfred Meiezejewski = The Reality of Reichsbahn Ost. Thanks for the "like"; back at ya!
Cheers, Ron
Tunnels and bridges on the new Iranian rail line are much better choke points. Germany just needs an airfield within Ju-88 or Me-410 range.