Covid-19 reports

[33k in the air]

CDC Provisional Monthly U.S. COVID fatality counts published August 11th

Month	2020​	2021​
January	6​	104,964​
February	19​	47,728​
March	7,158​	22,774​
April	65,476​	18,432​
May	38,298​	14,543​
June	18,004​	7,624​
July	31,111​	7,941​

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

And now we are trending back in the wrong direction... smh

 

[Zipper730]

Those under 50 years of age are 64.36% of the U.S. population but are only 4.87% of COVID deaths.

I didn't know those over 50 were taking such high fatality rates.

 

[33k in the air]

I didn't know those over 50 were taking such high fatality rates.

COVID fatalities are highly stratified by age. The percentage of U.S. COVID deaths by age group according to the CDC provisional data published Aug. 11th. (Source)

0-17 years: . . 0.06% . . (354 / 610,425)
18-29 years: . 0.42% . . (2,577 / 610,425)
30-39 years; . 1.21% . . (7,368 / 610,425)
40-49 years: . 3.19% . . (19,457 / 610,425)
50-64 years: 16.04% . . (97,942 / 610,425)
65-74 years: 22.32% . . (136,234 / 610,425)
75-84 years: 27.29% . . (166,609 / 610,425)
85+ years: . 29.47% . . (179,884 / 610,425)

The age groups are not all directly comparable, but the trend of more fatalities in older age groups is apparent. Percentage of Canadian COVID deaths by age group as of August 6th. (Source)

0-19 years: . . 0.06% . . (15 / 26,591)
20-29 years: . 0.25% . . (66 / 26,591)
30-39 years: . 0.56% . . (148 / 26,591)
40-49 years: . 1.29% . . (344 / 26,591)
50-59 years: . 3.76% . . (1,001 / 26,591)
60-69 years: . 9.68% . . (2,573 / 26,591)
70-79 years: 20.30% . . (5,397 / 26,591)
80+ years: . .64.11% . . (17,047 / 26,591)

Percentage of Swedish COVID deaths by age group as of August 5th. (Source)

0-9 years: . . . 0.06% . . (9 / 14,657)
10-19 years: . 0.03% . . (5 / 14,657)
20-29 years: . 0.15% . . (22 / 14,657)
30-39 years: . 0.32% . . (47 / 14,657)
40-49 years: . 0.79% . . (116 / 14,657)
50-59 years: . 2.55% . . (374 / 14,657)
60-69 years: . 7.04% . . (1,032 / 14,657)
70-79 years: 22.39% . . (3,281 / 14,657)
80-89 years: 40.72% . . (5,968 / 14,657)
90+ years: . .25.95% . . (3,803 / 14,657)

 

[33k in the air]

I didn't know those over 50 were taking such high fatality rates.

The CDC provisional data doesn't show the case numbers for each age group, but other countries do. Here is the all-case survival/recovery rate by age group for Canada as of August 6th. The source is the same as given in the prior post.

0-19 years: . 99.995%
20-29 years: 99.98%
30-39 years: 99.94%
40-49 years: 99.84%
50-59 years: 99.46%
60-69 years: 97.76%
70-79 years: 91.06%
80+ years: . .76.06%

All-case survival/recovery rate by age group for Sweden as of August 5th. The source is the same as given in the prior post.

0-9 years: . . 99.97%
10-19 years: 99.997%
20-29 years: 99.99%
30-39 years: 99.98%
40-49 years: 99.94%
50-59 years: 99.79%
60-69 years: 98.83%
70-79 years: 91.84%
80-89 years: 75.64%
90+ years: . .65.35%

 

[33k in the air]

COVID Hospitalization and ICU admission rates by age group in British Columbia.
Data through July 31st. From the weekly provincial epidemiological report published Aug. 11th.

Hospitalization Rate

0-9 years: . . . 1.10% (95 hospitalizations out of 8,618 cases)
10-19 years: . 0.42% (69 / 16,274)
20-29 years: . 1.23% (424 / 34,340)
30-39 years: . 2.96% (824 / 27,825)
40-49 years: . 4.12% (909 / 22,069)
50-59 years: . 6.19% (1,264 / 18,608)
60-69 years: 12.81% (1,537 / 11,998)
70-79 years: 24.82% (1,530 / 6,165)
80-89 years: 33.28% (1,120 / 3,365)
90+ years: . .25.87% (392 / 1,515)
All ages: . . . . 5.41% (8,164 / 150,777)

ICU Admission Rate

0-9 years: . . 0.08% (7 ICU admissions out of 8,618 cases)
10-19 years: 0.09% (15 / 16,274)
20-29 years: 0.13% (46 / 34,340)
30-39 years: 0.56% (157 / 27,825)
40-49 years: 0.87% (193 / 22,069)
50-59 years: 1.91% (355 / 18,608)
60-69 years: 3.83% (466 / 11,998)
70-79 years: 7.14% (440 / 6,165)
80-89 years: 4.90% (165 / 3,365)
90+ years: . .1.12% (17 / 1,515)
All ages: . . . 1.23% (1,861 / 150,777)

B.C. COVID-19 Situation Report -- Week 30
See Table 4 on page 9 of the PDF

 

[Greg Boeser]

I didn't know those over 50 were taking such high fatality rates.

In Minnesota the median age of a COVID fatality is 82 years old.
Less than 1% of deaths have occurred in people under the age of 40.
92.5% of all COVID deaths have been over the age of 60.
The case fatality rate for pediatric cases (0-19y) is 1 in 13000
The case fatality rate for those 20-29y is 1 in 7700
30-39y = 1 in 1872
40-49y = 1 in 671
50-59y = 1 in 233
60-69y = 1 in 65.8
70-79y = 1 in 16.96
80-89y = 1 in 6.1
90-99y = 1 in 3.5
>99y = 1 in 2.9
Total reported cases as of 12 Aug 2021: 623,527 = 11% of population

 

[Zipper730]

In Minnesota the median age of a COVID fatality is 82 years old.
Less than 1% of deaths have occurred in people under the age of 40.
92.5% of all COVID deaths have been over the age of 60.

Have they prioritized vaccination for people in these age range? I'd want to cover the people who are most likely to die from the illness.

 

[ARTESH]

Red: Critical ... Blue: Safe!

P.s. : please don't ask anything right now! I had a hard discussion with a pan-islamist about this shit and currently have no nerves!

 

[33k in the air]

Have they prioritized vaccination for people in these age range? I'd want to cover the people who are most likely to die from the illness.

Here in Canada, in every province, the focus seems to be on getting children vaccinated (12-17) more than anything else. That's despite (a) no long-term data, e.g. five years, on the health effects of the COVID vaccines on recipients that young; and (b) the demonstrably very low rate of fatalities in the under-20 age group.

Some comparative data from Statistics Canada and Health Canada:

35 = the 2015-2019 average annual number of Canadians under 20 who died from influenza & pneumonia
15 = the 2020-2021 total number of Canadians under 20 who died from COVID

 

[Greg Boeser]

More kids have died of gunshot wounds than COVID here.

 

[33k in the air]

More kids have died of gunshot wounds than COVID here.

In Canada, more people under the age of 50 died in transportation accidents in 2019 than have died from COVID during the entire pandemic (880 vs. 547).

Those under 50 are 61.8% of the population.

 

[ThomasP]

The idea behind the push on getting the kids vaccinated is primarily the following:

1. Slow down the spread of COVID (including its new variants - Delta for example) amongst kids and anyone they associate with, and by extension anyone that associates with them then associate with, etc, etc. Widespread vaccination has been proven to slow the rate of spread of every other disease that there is a vaccine for.

2. Reduce/prevent the more serious effects in the kids that become infected (ie hospitalization, death, and long term health aftereffects). Vaccination has been proven to do accomplish this goal.

3. Reduce/prevent the spawning of new, possibly more deadly variants - by reducing the number of people that the current COVID strains infect. If this action is successful, there will fortunately be little or no evidence of success - other than the lack/reduction-in-number of new variants.

The more new strains that evolve, the more likely it is that some will be more communicable, more resistant to the vaccines, more deadly, or any combination thereof.

Worldwide, children (defined in this case as 14 yo or less) account for approximately 1/3 of the population, and only ~2%(?) have been vaccinated. That means there are currently about 2.2 billion unvaccinated incubators being carried or crawling/walking around, plus the adults that have not been vaccinated.

The reason we no longer experience recurring smallpox and polio epidemics/pandemics, and constant endemic tuberculosis (possibly the world's numerically greatest killer among communicable diseases), is due to the mass vaccination programs of the second half of the 1900s.

Although it is still not known for certain how this will all play out, a look at the past influenza timeline is considered a pretty good indicator. A good basic timeline is available here:

"Timeline of influenza - Wikipedia"

 

[33k in the air]

The idea behind the push on getting the kids vaccinated is primarily the following:

1. Slow down the spread of COVID (including its new variants - Delta for example) amongst kids and anyone they associate with, and by extension anyone that associates with them then associate with, etc, etc. Widespread vaccination has been proven to slow the rate of spread of every other disease that there is a vaccine for.

Except that, as the data unequivocally shows, children are at nearly zero risk from COVID. Plain old influenza and pneumonia poses a higher risk -- but there's no panic nor hysteria around it.

The claim that children spread COVID more than any other group is without basis in the data. If anything, a child is much more likely to contract the virus from an adult than the reverse.

The U.K. Technical Briefing 20 data unequivocally shows the Delta variant is LESS of a fatality risk than was the original strain.

2. Reduce/prevent the more serious effects in the kids that become infected (ie hospitalization, death, and long term health aftereffects). Vaccination has been proven to do accomplish this goal.

The claims of "long COVID" are mostly without solid basis in the data, and rely often on vague symptoms that could be attributed to anything.

If you have citations to studies which clearly show that (a) the long-term health effects from COVID occur with greater frequency than the long-term health effects from influenza; and (b) the long-term health effects from COVID occur with greater severity than the long-term health effects from influenza, then by all means present them. So far, such evidence is lacking.

Plain old influenza can cause all sorts of long-term health effects -- but there's no panic nor hysteria about that.

3. Reduce/prevent the spawning of new, possibly more deadly variants - by reducing the number of people that the current COVID strains infect. If this action is successful, there will fortunately be little or no evidence of success - other than the lack/reduction-in-number of new variants.

Viruses normally mutate into more contagious but LESS virulent forms. There are some experts sounding the warning that the COVID vaccines are messing with that because their efficacy is not very good (and is much less that their manufacturers were originally trumpeting).

Worldwide, children (defined in this case as 14 yo or less) account for approximately 1/3 of the population, and only ~2%(?) have been vaccinated. That means there are currently about 2.2 billion unvaccinated incubators being carried or crawling/walking around, plus the adults that have not been vaccinated.

See first reply. Children are at nearly zero risk from the virus, and transmit the virus to adults far less than the reverse.

The reason we no longer experience recurring smallpox and polio epidemics/pandemics, and constant endemic tuberculosis (possibly the world's numerically greatest killer among communicable diseases), is due to the mass vaccination programs of the second half of the 1900s.

Any comparison of COVID to smallpox is ridiculous. They are not even in the same ballpark in terms of fatality rates. Note also the campaign to eradicate smallpox took decades of concerted international effort.

Although it is still not know for certain how this will all play out, a look at the past influenza timeline is considered a pretty good indicator. A good basic timeline is available here:

"Timeline of influenza - Wikipedia"

Let us remember a vaccine normally takes about 12 years to be fully approved. The COVID vaccines are barely a year into their development.

There is NO long-term data on the health effects and efficacy. No one can point to five-year data on the effects the COVID vaccines had on kids because that data doesn't exist. It CANNOT exist since the COVID vaccines have been in widespread use for less than a year.

There are plenty of examples of medications producing poor results once the longer-term data comes in The more well-known of these would be Thalidomide, Vioxx, and the 1976 Swine Flu vaccine, but these are hardly the only examples.

This history speaks to caution being highly advisable. Especially considering those at risk from COVID is well-established, and has been well-established since April of 2020. If one is under 50 to 60, depending on the overall health of the jurisdiction, the risk is minimal, and less than from other mundane causes that no one gives a second thought to.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Sigh...

 

[at6]

My niece has contracted covid. More people dying from gunshots and accidents than Covid this month.

 

[ThomasP]

Hey 33k in the air,

Did you even read my post? It sounds like you are trying to rebut what I posted, but if so none of your comments apply to what I posted.

 

[33k in the air]

All-case recovery/survival rate by age group, Italy and Canada. (Italian data as of August 4th; Canadian data as of August 13th)

Age Group . Italy . . . | Canada
0-19 years: . 99.996% | 99.995%
20-29 years: 99.99% . | 99.98%
30-39 years: 99.95% . | 99.94%
40-49 years: 99.84% . | 99.84%
50-59 years: 99.39% . | 99.46%
60-69 years: 97.23% . | 97.76%
70-79 years: 90.65% . | 91.07%
80+ years: . .77.93% . | 76.08%

Two different countries, different population sizes, different case and fatality totals, yet almost identical recovery/survival percentages for each age group.

The exact fatality and case counts:

Age Group . . . . . . Italy . . . . . .| . . . . Canada
0-19 years: . . . . .30 / 677,403 . | . . . .15 / 279,645
20-29 years: . . . .67 / 532,856 . | . . . .66 / 278,959
30-39 years: . . .262 / 546,505 . | . . .149 / 237,774
40-49 years: . 1,129 / 696,740 . | . . .344 / 210,833
50-59 years: . 4,544 / 750,103 . | . 1,007 / 186,994
60-69 years: 13,138 / 474,563 . | . 2,583 / 115,442
70-79 years: 32,147 / 343,907 . | . 5,407 / 60,518
80+ years: . .76,030 / 344,437 . | 17,061 / 71,332

Italian data source (see Table 1 on page 12 of the PDF)
Canadian data source (see Figure 4 and Figure 7; use the drop-down menu on the latter to select fatality data)

 

[ThomasP]

Hey 33k in the air,

Is your post#278 meant to address something I said in my post#273 ?

 

[Vincenzo]

Vaccine and covid, Italy
9th july to 8th august, positive per million for not vaccinated people: 3965
9th july to 8th august, positive per million for not fully vaccinated people: 1902
9th july to 8th august, positive per million for fully vaccinated people: 845
2nd july to 1st august. hospitalized per million for not vaccinated people: 151
As Above, hospitalized per million for not fully vaccinated people: 33.5
As Above, hospitalized per million for fully vaccinated people: 28
A. A., in IC per million for not vaccinated people: 12.2
A. A., in IC per million for not fully vaccinated people: 1.9
A. A., in IC per million for fully vaccinated people: 1.5
18th june to 18th july, deaths per million for not vaccinated people: 7
As above, deaths per million for not fully vaccinated people: 1.2
As above, deaths per million for fully vaccinated people: 1.5

the number for not vaccinated, incomplete vaccinated and full vaccinated are for the 24th July
my compilation and calculation on data from https://www.epicentro.iss.it/corona...glianza-integrata-COVID-19_11-agosto-2021.pdf table 3