Czechs and Poles, what do you think of the Anti Missile System?

[Henk]

Ha ha ha... That was funny as hell!

 

[JugBR]

what would said machiavelli about that issue ?

considering the texts from the book "the prince":

Against foreign powers, a prince can defend himself with good weapons and good friends; if he has good weapons, he will never lack for good friends.

The prince who relies upon their words, without having otherwise provided for his security, is ruined; for friendships that are won by awards, and not by greatness and nobility of soul, although deserved, yet are not real, and cannot be depended upon in time of adversity.

A prince being thus obliged to know well how to act as a beast must imitate the fox and the lion, for the lion cannot protect himself from traps, and the fox cannot defend himself from wolves. One must therefore be a fox to recognize traps, and a lion to frighten wolves.

Upon this, one has to remark that men ought either to be well treated or crushed, because they can avenge themselves of lighter injuries, of more serious ones they cannot; therefore the injury that is to be done to a man ought to be of such a kind that one does not stand in fear of revenge.

I say, therefore, that the arms with which a prince defends his state are either his own, or they are mercenaries, auxiliaries, or mixed. Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous; and if one holds his state based on these arms, he will stand neither firm nor safe; for they are disunited, ambitious and without discipline, unfaithful, valiant before friends, cowardly before enemies; they have neither the fear of God nor fidelity to men, and destruction is deferred only so long as the attack is; for in peace one is robbed by them, and in war by the enemy. The fact is, they have no other attraction or reason for keeping the field than a trifle of stipend, which is not sufficient to make them willing to die for you. They are ready enough to be your soldiers whilst you do not make war, but if war comes they take themselves off or run from the foe

 

[Matt308]

Boy this thread is way off track into local nostalgia. But the JAWAs are certainly beatiful bikes.

 

[mkloby]

How will you guys from the US feel if the US government and economy came crashing down and everything is worth nothing and the US Navy, Airforce and Military is almost nothing from what it once was?

I like how you specifically left out the US Marine Corps

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

I love the fact that this thread proves how people do not read. The Poll specifically says that only Czechs and Polish members can vote in the thread.

Yet somehow a German (Airfix), South African (Henk), Russian (Mitya), Mexican (smg) and an American (fly boy) have managed to vote in the poll. Way to go guys!

 

[JugBR]

well in this case, i gonna vote too !

 

[Henk]

I like how you specifically left out the US Marine Corps

He he he...

I love the fact that this thread proves how people do not read. The Poll specifically says that only Czechs and Polish members can vote in the thread.

Yet somehow a German (Airfix), South African (Henk), Russian (Mitya), Mexican (smg) and an American (fly boy) have managed to vote in the poll. Way to go guys!

I am still in the process of trying to get my school fees back because they did not teach me anything at all. I just could not help myself.

 

[Matt308]

Face it Henk. Your anti-establishment.

 

[Henk]

Face it Henk. Your anti-establishment.

Me? Never

 

[Freebird]

Only hope we will never need to see it in action. And if so, I hope the result for our country won´t be the same as after Munich´s dictat in 1938 when Great Britain, France threw us over the board to Hitler...

One thing I should mention, the UK France did not just try to give Czechoslovakia to the Nazi's as a sacrifice, it was realized in the UK that we needed time because we were so unprepared, and a rapid re-armament {exchanging Gladiator biplanes for Hurricanes} began in earnest in 1938. I believe that they hoped that Hitler would only take the Sudeten, did not realize the true intentions.

That being said, it was a huge shame for the UK that they allowed this to happen to the Czechs.

I think this missile system is definitely a good thing.

NATO membership missiles, Good for who? US? Or Poland Ukraine?

I would also very much like to see Ukraine in NATO. In my opinion, the US should focus more on their relationship with Poland and less on some more "traditional" US allies.

Mkloby do you think the people government are willing to send 10's of thousands to defend Ukraine in the event of an attack? Or will we have a repeat of Lizzy Rice crying winging her hands as Russian tanks roll in?
Will we promise them to offer all possible assistance - short of any actual help?

Thanks for chiming in marshall! In situations like this, it is best to hear from the people that it effects the most. Thanks for sharing that. I myself did not live in the Czech or anyplace that was under the Soviet thumb print, so I can only imagine what it was like.

I don't know if there is anyone else who has been to Ukraine, and understands the dynamics. Do you {I'm speaking to our American friends} really believe that this will help Poland Ukraine? Would you be willing to supply their heat oil this winter if Russia shuts off the oil gas?

My future in-laws are Russians, living in Ukraine BTW.

I think these missle sites are needlessly provocative to the soviets.

Perhaps the first sensible post...

How will you guys from the US feel if the US government and economy came crashing down and everything is worth nothing and the US Navy, Airforce and Military is almost nothing from what it once was?

If Obama gets elected we could answer that question.

 

[JugBR]

One thing I should mention, the UK France did not just try to give Czechoslovakia to the Nazi's as a sacrifice, it was realized in the UK that we needed time because we were so unprepared, and a rapid re-armament {exchanging Gladiator biplanes for Hurricanes} began in earnest in 1938. I believe that they hoped that Hitler would only take the Sudeten, did not realize the true intentions.

like if czechoslovaquia was owned by UK France...

as sir winston churchill said once: giving meat to the lion, expecting been the last to be eaten...

worst was germany and ussr invaded poland and allies just declares war against germany... ussr was attacking and invadidng countries since 20´s...

 

[mkloby]

NATO membership missiles, Good for who? US? Or Poland Ukraine?

Good for US and Poland, as well as any other nation that will fall under its umbrella. Obviously the US and Polish governments feel the same.

Mkloby do you think the people government are willing to send 10's of thousands to defend Ukraine in the event of an attack? Or will we have a repeat of Lizzy Rice crying winging her hands as Russian tanks roll in?
Will we promise them to offer all possible assistance - short of any actual help?

What people and what government are you talking about? Use specifics please. If Ukraine was in NATO and attacked, I believe that yes they would be defended by the US and others. You seem to be referring to an attack on Ukraine by Russia... and if Russia knew US troops would be committed in the case of an attack - do you really think Russia would?

I don't know if there is anyone else who has been to Ukraine, and understands the dynamics. Do you {I'm speaking to our American friends} really believe that this will help Poland Ukraine? Would you be willing to supply their heat oil this winter if Russia shuts off the oil gas?

Why is this defensive missile system provocative towards Russia??? Please explain. Also, do you think Russia would want to shutdown pipelines long term, which would be damaging to their economy? If they did chose to use gas/oil as a political weapon - should the US and others p*ssyfoot around them and appease? Let's cower and not do anything that might antagonize Russia in some irrational way??? Very "sensible."

 

[Freebird]

Good for US and Poland, as well as any other nation that will fall under its umbrella. Obviously the US and Polish governments feel the same.

How does it benefit Poland? The ABM system is suppost to protect against ICBM's from "rogue nations", it's hard to see how a missile fired from the mideast would be going through Poland. And it offers no protection to Poland from Russian missiles, as in an extreme case of war they would be using short range or else just driving in. The only real effect of the missiles in Poland is to raise tensions in Eastern Europe.

What people and what government are you talking about? Use specifics please. If Ukraine was in NATO and attacked, I believe that yes they would be defended by the US and others. You seem to be referring to an attack on Ukraine by Russia... and if Russia knew US troops would be committed in the case of an attack - do you really think Russia would?

Then why did we not offer any help to Georgia? The Russians have been escalating tensions there for several months after Bush went over trumpeting NATO membership plans for Geogia. The Russian backed irregulars attacked Georgian troops bordering Ossetia, and when Georgia responded Russia attacked. There were a couple of thousand US troops in Georgia helping to train Georgian troops, yet offered no help, and were quickly evacuated.

I look at it this way, suppose you propose to a girl, but she is nervous to marry an outsider because she lives in a bad 'hood. You tell her "Don't worry, I'm tough, When we get married I can protect you." Then you go out on a date with her, and she gets raped. Can you stand back and watch saying "But she's not my wife yet"?

To me it just makes the US look weak.

Why is this defensive missile system provocative towards Russia??? Please explain.

The same way if the Russians started to set up "defensive" missile bases in Cuba. Would we trust them that the missiles are only "defensive"? HELL NO! Would the US Poland allow Russia to snoop through the bases and examine the missiles in detail to verify that they are "defensive"? Defensive against who?

Also, do you think Russia would want to shutdown pipelines long term, which would be damaging to their economy?

As far as oil goes Russia has Europe by the b***s. Not stopped long-term, they would shut down exports this winter to Europe, perhaps simultaneous with some "random" terrorist attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf.

The Russians would lose nothing, as the crisis demand in Europe would probably push oil to over $200/ barrel.

However estimates of the long-term consequences stress the seriousness of the situation. The European Union imports 82 percent of its oil and 57 percent of its gas from third party states.

Russian oil pipeline interruption intensifies struggle for raw materials

At this point Europe needs Russia more than Russia needs Europe. The Russians can buy goods from the Far East if the Euroes put any restrictions on their exports. The Russians can afford to cut back on oil production given how much they can make off of higher oil prices.

ParaPundit: Russia Threatens European Oil Cut Back

If they did chose to use gas/oil as a political weapon - should the US and others p*ssyfoot around them and appease?

No, but it would be better to avoid provoking them unneccasarily

Let's cower and not do anything that might antagonize Russia in some irrational way??? Very "sensible."

"Cower" is not in the USA's foreign policy manual...

Instead of pushing membership in the US dominated NATO which is seen as provacation by Russia, I would think that it would be better to encourage the Central European states {Poland, Czech, Ukraine, Georgia, Baltics etc} to form a "Central European Alliance", similar to "SEATO". As a bloc they would have more power than individual countries, there is no reason why the USA could not have a good political economic relationship with these countries.

 

[Freebird]

Catchin' up to you Matt308...

 

[mkloby]

How does it benefit Poland? The ABM system is suppost to protect against ICBM's from "rogue nations", it's hard to see how a missile fired from the mideast would be going through Poland. And it offers no protection to Poland from Russian missiles, as in an extreme case of war they would be using short range or else just driving in. The only real effect of the missiles in Poland is to raise tensions in Eastern Europe.

If it's hard for you to see a possibility with a missile launched at Europe, what can I say to you then???

Then why did we not offer any help to Georgia? The Russians have been escalating tensions there for several months after Bush went over trumpeting NATO membership plans for Geogia. The Russian backed irregulars attacked Georgian troops bordering Ossetia, and when Georgia responded Russia attacked. There were a couple of thousand US troops in Georgia helping to train Georgian troops, yet offered no help, and were quickly evacuated..

You are comparing different scenarios. Georgia is not a member state in NATO. Do you think Russia would attack a NATO member state?

I look at it this way, suppose you propose to a girl, but she is nervous to marry an outsider because she lives in a bad 'hood. You tell her "Don't worry, I'm tough, When we get married I can protect you." Then you go out on a date with her, and she gets raped. Can you stand back and watch saying "But she's not my wife yet"?

I'm not commenting on that ridiculousness.

To me it just makes the US look weak.

What do you propose the US and/or NATO should have done in response?

The same way if the Russians started to set up "defensive" missile bases in Cuba. Would we trust them that the missiles are only "defensive"? HELL NO! Would the US Poland allow Russia to snoop through the bases and examine the missiles in detail to verify that they are "defensive"? Defensive against who?

I'm not sure where you are going with this - if you're referring to the Cuban Missile Crisis, there is no comparison between the weapons installed in Cuba and the planned systems for Poland and Czech Repub. It's already covered as to their purpose - if Mr Freebird decides not to believe that to be true, what else can I say to you?

As far as oil goes Russia has Europe by the b***s. Not stopped long-term, they would shut down exports this winter to Europe, perhaps simultaneous with some "random" terrorist attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf.

The Russians would lose nothing, as the crisis demand in Europe would probably push oil to over $200/ barrel.

There's a whole spectrum of things that could happen. The Russia you just described would be a terrorist state. If Russia is intent on policies such as that - a defensive missile system in Poland is not going to change matters one way or the other. Their vocal response to the missile system is rhetoric.

"Cower" is not in the USA's foreign policy manual...

Instead of pushing membership in the US dominated NATO which is seen as provacation by Russia, I would think that it would be better to encourage the Central European states {Poland, Czech, Ukraine, Georgia, Baltics etc} to form a "Central European Alliance", similar to "SEATO". As a bloc they would have more power than individual countries, there is no reason why the USA could not have a good political economic relationship with these countries.

I disagree with you. But, it's up to the individual states to decide their policy.

 

[stasoid]

If Ukraine was in NATO and attacked, I believe that yes they would be defended by the US and others. You seem to be referring to an attack on Ukraine by Russia... and if Russia knew US troops would be committed in the case of an attack - do you really think Russia woul

Russia ever attacing Ukraine is very unlikely. Both countries have so much in common. Mixed families, where one parent is Russian and the other is Ukrainian and there are many millions of such families living in Ukraine and even more in Russia.
Imagine Russia attaking Ukraine is like to say US attaking Canada.

The bigges fear Ukraine facing is russian economical and cultural expansion. Big russian corporations slowly but surely penetrating ukrainian economy and russian show business swallowing its ukranian competitor. There is no military solution to that, you know, with the NATO or without it.

Its NATO membership is a highly controversial issue within the Ukraine itself. It most likely would be voted down if, say, a nationwide referendum was held today. It seems like the only proponent of Ukraine's NATO membership is its current president, backed up mostly by radical nationalists from the western part of the country. His raiting by the way is around 10% right now.
So, US can play ukrainian card, while the country is poor, against Russia, of course, but it might be a very expensive game, and it will cost more and more, day after day as the living standards in both Russia and Ukraine will improve.

 

[marshall]

How does it benefit Poland?

Well anybody interested can check here how Poland can benefit on this deal

Text of the Declaration on Strategic Cooperation Between the United States of America and the Republic of Poland

but how it will be in reality is another case.



One more thing about Russia reaction to this, they probably know very good that this is not any real danger for them but they want to use this situation as exuse to achieve some things that normally would be hard to achieve or would be criticesed hard. Like increasing prices of nautral resources.

 

[Freebird]

If it's hard for you to see a possibility with a missile launched at Europe, what can I say to you then???

Any missile launched from Iran or Syria etc. will not be passing through Poland. The only missiles it would defend against would be Russian, and the ABM shield is seen by the Russians as chipping away at MAD {mutually assured destruction}

You are comparing different scenarios. Georgia is not a member state in NATO. Do you think Russia would attack a NATO member state?

Do we only help NATO countries? The USA is pledged to protect S. Korea Taiwan, which do not belong to NATO last time I checked. Georgia has been a strong ally to the USA, sending more troops {per capita} to fight Iraq than any other nation, including the USA! Do you not think that the US should have helped to protect Georgia, seeing as it was your President's call for NATO membership that precipitated the crisis? Are we {NATO} such fair-weather friends?

I'm not commenting on that ridiculousness.

I thought it was a reasonably comparative analysis. Do you think we have no moral or honorable duty to help defend our ally that is attacked?

What do you propose the US and/or NATO should have done in response?

Perhaps if NATO had put a few AT SAM battalions on the Georgian side of the Ossetian border in the first 48 hours, then Russia would not have occupied Georgian territory, but stopped at the Georgia/Ossetia border. As it is now it doesn't look like the Russians will be leaving georgia proper the port of Poti anytime soon.

I'm not sure where you are going with this - if you're referring to the Cuban Missile Crisis, there is no comparison between the weapons installed in Cuba and the planned systems for Poland and Czech Repub. It's already covered as to their purpose - if Mr Freebird decides not to believe that to be true, what else can I say to you?

Capt. Mkloby, do not confuse Mr. Freebird's opinions with that of Mr. Putin please. My grandfather and probably yours were on the same side in the fight against Fascism Communism, some of my Grandfather's relatives never made it back home. We are on the same side here.

My point was that if I was President and Russia was putting missiles in Cuba, I would not trust Mr. Putin's claim that missiles are only "defensive". Putin has no reason to trust us either. Suppose next week that Russia starts shipping "unknown" cargo to Cuba and insists that it is only "defensive missiles".

I'll ask a few questions then:

1.} Would we allow Russia to ship "unknown" missiles to Cuba?
2.} Would we demand to inspect the cargo before it lands in Cuba?
3.} If the cargo is accompanied by Russian warships, what then?
4.} If Russia demands to inspect these "defensive missiles" in Poland, do we allow it?

There's a whole spectrum of things that could happen. The Russia you just described would be a terrorist state. If Russia is intent on policies such as that - a defensive missile system in Poland is not going to change matters one way or the other. Their vocal response to the missile system is rhetoric.

Why would they be a terrorist state? It's their oil and they are free to sell it or not as they see fit, according to international law. if Europe is totally dependant on getting more than 50% of its oil gas from Russia, that's too bad. If people are freezing in Europe this winter, Russia will blame NATO for initiating a crisis. Can the US supply half of Europe's needed oil gas this winter? Oh, and by the way you can probably count on Venezuala Iran to help Russia to create a shortage drive prices up.

Russia ever attacing Ukraine is very unlikely. Both countries have so much in common. Mixed families, where one parent is Russian and the other is Ukrainian and there are many millions of such families living in Ukraine and even more in Russia.
Imagine Russia attaking Ukraine is like to say US attaking Canada.

Stasoid are you from Europe if I may ask?

The situation in Ukraine would not be a simple attack. It would probably involve pro-Russian nationals anti-Ukrainian Tatars in Crimea declaring independance from Kiev. Crimea is not exactly part of Ukraine proper, it is the "Autonomous Republic of Crimea" nominally part of Ukraine, but with its own "ARC" legislature. Ethnic Ukrainians are in the minority, and Crimea was nver a part of Ukraine historically until "gifted" by Khrushchev. So if Crimea declared independance and Ukraine decided to "invade" Crimea to prevent it's secession, then Russia could intervene to "protect civilians" and to uphold the right of Crimeans to "self determination".

Sound crazy? This is the exact same method used in Georgia/Ossetia.

Would we intervene to prevent Crimean people from having self-determination?

 

[Ramirezzz]

Perhaps if NATO had put a few AT SAM battalions on the Georgian side of the Ossetian border in the first 48 hours, then Russia would not have occupied Georgian territory, but stopped at the Georgia/Ossetia border.
As it is now it doesn't look like the Russians will be leaving georgia proper the port of Poti anytime soon.

other way round - would Georgia attack the South Ossetia if those NATO battalions were there?

If people are freezing in Europe this winter, Russia will blame NATO for initiating a crisis. Can the US supply half of Europe's needed oil gas this winter?

and how should Russia equialize their oil gas income losses in that case ? The natural resources incomings make up to some 40 % of the Russian annual budget.

Sound crazy? This is the exact same method used in Georgia/Ossetia.

no, it isn't. Russia hadn't intervened when Georgia was about to beating Ossetians out from the Tshinhvali in 1992. And now the situation is completely different.
There was no war for independence in Crimea, and they actually didn't declare independence at no time. With other words there is no conflict potential in this region.
And as Stasoid has said - Russia wont fight Ukraine and visa versa because of a long list of reasons. That's the thing which nobody both in Ukraine and Russia could ever imagine.

I completely agree with you on missile shield issue. USA certainly don't want any Russian backed military alliance in Caribbean region, we don't want it in the Eastern Europe for the very same reasons.

 

[JugBR]

other way round - would Georgia attack the South Ossetia if those NATO battalions were there?

good point ramirezzz