Czechs and Poles, what do you think of the Anti Missile System?

[comiso90]

Russia is sore that they haven't been taken seriously for the last 10 years.

Antagonism = Strength = Power

It's good to keep the Russians on there toes. If we dont make the deals with other nations they will either by diplomacy, coercion, corruption or force.

.

 

[Ramirezzz]

oh, and one more thing about that gas crisis between Ukraine and Russia which broke out some 2 years ago. I've just thought that maybe not all members of this forum remember the background while talking about how Russia cut off the gas supplies.
Until 2006 Ukraine recieved the gas for some laughable price of 40 or 50$ per cubic meter, well below the production cost. For example Hungary or Germany pay for one cubic meter some 250 or 300 $.
Moreover , there were constant unauthorized siphonings of the Russian gas in Ukraine , Russia lost some 2 or 3 billion dollars because of that.
The next question - why should we continue selling gas to the Ukranians at our own sacrifice if they try to distance from Russia and cause us problems in almost every issue? We don't have problems with the current Ukrainan goverment critisizing Russia all the time - they are not the first , and surely not the last ones here, but why the heck they're doing that while sitting on our cheap gas? If you want some free market relations - you'll get that.
Yes, we supplied such countries as Angola and Mozambique with some cheap MiG-23s at own sacrifice as well - but that was completely other case. They were our allies in that region or at least positioned themselves as such.

 

[Matt308]

No argument here Remirezzz. But I thought that is was not a black and white oil issue, but also include offsets.

 

[Freebird]

other way round - would Georgia attack the South Ossetia if those NATO battalions were there?

When you say "Georgia attack S. Ossetia" it makes it sound like attacking a foreign country, yet until this crisis S. Ossetia was part of Georgia, not even Russia recognised it as a separate country. So according to Georgia they would be "bringing back order to an area under control of some armed rebels." There is credible information that the crisis was provoked by S. Ossetia shelling Georgian troops, who then responded.

Whether you believe Georgia's version of events, the truth will eventually come out.

Point is if I were in Mr. Putin's shoes I would not allow such a humiliating dangerous situation such as Georgia joining NATO right on Russia's back door. Looks like this will not happen now, as the only reliable Georgian port Poti is under the control of Russia. {Batumi is part of another self declared "enclave"}

Ramirezz {or anyone} Is it a coincedence that there had not been a crisis in S. Ossetia for 16 years, but right after Bush's visit to promote NATO membership the whole thing blows up?

and how should Russia equialize their oil gas income losses in that case ? The natural resources incomings make up to some 40 % of the Russian annual budget.

Ok, suppose that Russia now exports 1 million barrels/month to Europe at about $110. They totally shut down exports for 2 months in Nov Dec as the demand for winter heating is extreme. The price of oil would EASILY hit $200/ barrel as the demand in Europe skyrockets. {You can bet that the usual cast of America-haters Chavez Iran slow down shipments too} Russia can still export to China {at the higher price} and Russia will recoup ALL of it's lost $$$ within a few months by selling to the now freezing Europeans at $200/ barrel.

no, it isn't. Russia hadn't intervened when Georgia was about to beating Ossetians out from the Tshinhvali in 1992. And now the situation is completely different.
There was no war for independence in Crimea, and they actually didn't declare independence at no time. With other words there is no conflict potential in this region.
And as Stasoid has said - Russia wont fight Ukraine and visa versa because of a long list of reasons. That's the thing which nobody both in Ukraine and Russia could ever imagine.

WHAT??? No potential for conflict? If Crimea declares independance from Ukraine, and Ukraine sends troops in to "put down the sepratists" do you really think Russia will stand by and do nothing????

The poor relations between Ukraine and Russia, already tense over Ukraine's nuclear weapons and its inability to pay for Russian oil, are likely to be aggravated by the election on Jan. 16 of the first President of Crimea.

A peninsula with balmy weather and a beautiful coast that juts into the Black Sea, Crimea is home to the Black Sea Fleet, an aging fleet of rusting ships that Ukraine and Russia continue to bicker over.

Many Russians believe that since Catherine the Great annexed the Crimea in 1782, this piece of strategically placed real estate rightfully belongs to them. But Ukraine was handed Crimea in 1954 by Nikita S. Khrushchev, and when it became a independent from the Soviet Union two years ago Crimea stayed inside Ukraine.

Now, after two years of watching the Ukrainian economy collapse -- and the once relatively prosperous Crimean economy along with it -- there is a growing clamor here for Crimea to rejoin Russia.

Thus, the elections are not just about choosing a President of Crimea, a new title and position intended to give Crimea an aura of separation from Ukraine. The campaign is about Crimea's future relationship with Russia.

Crimea Vote Raises Regional Tension - New York Times

Relations between Ukraine and Russia have been tense in recent years, mainly due to the presence of Russian troops on the Crimean Peninsula, where Russia's Black Sea Fleet is based. Moreover, the Autonomous Republic of Crimea is the only Ukrainian region with an ethnic Russian majority: according to Minority Rights Group, Russians make up 60% of the Crimean population, with 24% Ukrainian and 12% Tatar.

According to RFE/RL, there is a general feeling among Crimea's ethnic Russian population that the peninsula should be reintegrated into the Russian Federation, while the ethnic Ukrainian population sees the Russian military presence as a continuing "act of aggression

Potential for further diplomatic tension between Russia and the West over Ukraine - Nationalia

I completely agree with you on missile shield issue. USA certainly don't want any Russian backed military alliance in Caribbean region, we don't want it in the Eastern Europe for the very same reasons.

In my opinion, there will be some sort of "Quid pro Quo" {a deal done}, Russia gives back Georgian territory and guarantees oil delivery, while the EU US back away from plans for Ukraine Georgia in NATO, and probably dump the missile shield as well.

Do we really want to inflame a crisis with Christian Russia, and lose their help against Muslim fanatics?

Similar to the deal in the 60's for USSR to pull missiles from Cuba, in return for the USA pulling missiles from Turkey.

 

[Ramirezzz]

When you say "Georgia attack S. Ossetia" it makes it sound like attacking a foreign country, yet until this crisis S. Ossetia was part of Georgia, not even Russia recognised it as a separate country. So according to Georgia they would be "bringing back order to an area under control of some armed rebels."

Well, western newspapers didn't hesitate to call the Russian operation in Chechnja an invasion, so why should we hesitate here either?

There is credible information that the crisis was provoked by S. Ossetia shelling Georgian troops, who then responded.

which credible information exactly? Those constantly repeated claims by Georgians?

Whether you believe Georgia's version of events, the truth will eventually come out.

I wish it would!

Ramirezz {or anyone} Is it a coincedence that there had not been a crisis in S. Ossetia for 16 years, but right after Bush's visit to promote NATO membership the whole thing blows up?

I'm sorry Freebird , but you are dead wrong here. The crisis in SO was in kind of frozen condition right before Saakashvili was elected. Now see what happened afterwards

1)in january 2004 Saakashvili who was in presidential race at that moment visited a village in SO without any consultation with SO goverment despite all cease-fire agreements. He made there a statement where he pointed out that the 2004 is the last year when South Ossetia and Abkhazia don't take part in the all-Georgian elections.
Since his election he made it clear many times his goal is to regain the control over the SO and Abkhazia.
2) February 2004: Second man in the SO Ministry of Defence was killed by the Georgian policemen
3)May 2004 : the second Georgian assault in the SO (after war for independence of 1992) - police troops and Georgian special forces entered the SO territory which was under control of Tshinvali goverment. They were repelled, some 20 people been killed.
4) June 2004: Georgian forces closed down the Ergeti market, what left many South Ossetians unemployed. They intercepted the Russian convoy but were disarmed by the SO paramilitaries.
5) August 2004: a third Georgian military operation in SO. A SO village was seized but was later given up by Georgians.
5) Late 2006 - Saakashvili entered the Abkhaz controlled territory of Kodory and broke the Moscow cease fire agreements of 1994.
etc etc etc
So actually you see it's not that important who fired the first shot in the recent war. Saakashvili made it very clear from the very beginning - he won't leave the SO "problem" unattended unlike his predecessor Shevarnadze did. In fact there is a war going on since his election.

{You can bet that the usual cast of America-haters Chavez Iran slow down shipments too}

I wouldnt be so sure here.

Russia can still export to China {at the higher price} and

current exports to China cover some 3 or 5 percents of the oil gas incomes, so that wouldn't help much either.

Russia will recoup ALL of it's lost $$$ within a few months by selling to the now freezing Europeans at $200/ barrel.

I'm gonna tell you what will happen if Russia cut the gas supplies. Stock market will crash within a week - actually we can see it right now. Oil prices sunk for some 20 dollars and the RTS index (Russian Dow Jones) has fallen to some 10 percents. And its still falling.
No oil gas incomes - no budjet incomes for some 40 percent. Inflation skyrockets, no money for anything. A greatest economical disaster which I could ever imagine, overshadoving the crisis of 1998 by far.
Ine one word - Russans are not kamikazes. Nobody in a sober mind in the goverment would cut off the pipeline. That would hit Russians much more harder than the Europeans who still have their strategic reserves to survive for several months.

WHAT??? No potential for conflict? If Crimea declares independance from Ukraine, and Ukraine sends troops in to "put down the sepratists" do you really think Russia will stand by and do nothing????

Do you really think it would declare any? And if so, why the Crimea only? Heck, some 45 percent of Ukraine are ethnic Russians!
Speaking serously ,beside of some radical prorussian elements there which are not in a large number nobody really wants to cut their ties with the "continental" Ukraine.

 

[mkloby]

Any missile launched from Iran or Syria etc. will not be passing through Poland. The only missiles it would defend against would be Russian, and the ABM shield is seen by the Russians as chipping away at MAD {mutually assured destruction}

Are you seriously pretending to know the exact capabilities of the missile system to be installed? Why would you think it would have to necessarily pass through Poland???

Do we only help NATO countries? The USA is pledged to protect S. Korea Taiwan, which do not belong to NATO last time I checked. Georgia has been a strong ally to the USA, sending more troops {per capita} to fight Iraq than any other nation, including the USA! Do you not think that the US should have helped to protect Georgia, seeing as it was your President's call for NATO membership that precipitated the crisis? Are we {NATO} such fair-weather friends?

I did not say that - what I said is that aiding a NATO ally is a different scenario from a state that is not a NATO member state.

I thought it was a reasonably comparative analysis. Do you think we have no moral or honorable duty to help defend our ally that is attacked?

Perhaps if NATO had put a few AT SAM battalions on the Georgian side of the Ossetian border in the first 48 hours, then Russia would not have occupied Georgian territory, but stopped at the Georgia/Ossetia border. As it is now it doesn't look like the Russians will be leaving georgia proper the port of Poti anytime soon.

Your rape comparison - not reasonable at all. Regardless, of course there are other options and possibilities that could have been implemented. Stratlifting a few anti-tank and anti-air bn's to Georgia - not a militarily sound idea at all.

Capt. Mkloby, do not confuse Mr. Freebird's opinions with that of Mr. Putin please. My grandfather and probably yours were on the same side in the fight against Fascism Communism, some of my Grandfather's relatives never made it back home. We are on the same side here.

I don't know what you mean there. You refuse to see any value or benefit from the installation of the missile system and look at it as soley antagonizing Russia, if I'm reading your posts correctly. Obviously, I disagree. And yes, my Grandpa was a Marine too!

My point was that if I was President and Russia was putting missiles in Cuba, I would not trust Mr. Putin's claim that missiles are only "defensive". Putin has no reason to trust us either. Suppose next week that Russia starts shipping "unknown" cargo to Cuba and insists that it is only "defensive missiles".

Of course - nobody would blindly trust. However, fear of ruffling Russia's feathers is not going to give heavy consideration when it comes to US foreign policy. Do you seriously think that it would?

1.} Would we allow Russia to ship "unknown" missiles to Cuba?
2.} Would we demand to inspect the cargo before it lands in Cuba?
3.} If the cargo is accompanied by Russian warships, what then?
4.} If Russia demands to inspect these "defensive missiles" in Poland, do we allow it?

Do you really think they would be "unknown" missiles that we know nothing about??? Come on - Think outside of the theoretical vacuum.

Why would they be a terrorist state? It's their oil and they are free to sell it or not as they see fit, according to international law. if Europe is totally dependant on getting more than 50% of its oil gas from Russia, that's too bad. If people are freezing in Europe this winter, Russia will blame NATO for initiating a crisis. Can the US supply half of Europe's needed oil gas this winter? Oh, and by the way you can probably count on Venezuala Iran to help Russia to create a shortage drive prices up.

Why would those actions you said earlier be those of a terrorist state??? Because you described a Russia that would use oil/gas as a major weapon, coordinated with what you called terrorist attacks on oil tankers. How is that not a terrorist state.

Regardless - as ramirez stated such a scenario I don't forsee since it would not be in anyone's interest, although you seem to believe that it would not harm Russia economically.

 

[Freebird]

Are you seriously pretending to know the exact capabilities of the missile system to be installed? Why would you think it would have to necessarily pass through Poland???

I don't think missiles would pass through Poland if lauched from the MidEast. If the missiles come from Russia, having an ABM system is the least of the worries, as that would be WWIII

I did not say that - what I said is that aiding a NATO ally is a different scenario from a state that is not a NATO member state.

So how do you decide which of your Allies to aid, and when to do nothing?

Stratlifting a few anti-tank and anti-air bn's to Georgia - not a militarily sound idea at all.

Why is that an unsound idea? It's unlikely that Russia would attack US forces, they probably would have just stopped at the border of Ossetia

I don't know what you mean there. You refuse to see any value or benefit from the installation of the missile system and look at it as soley antagonizing Russia, if I'm reading your posts correctly. Obviously, I disagree. And yes, my Grandpa was a Marine too!

Oh I'm sure that the US sees it as a benefit, and for the Poles it is an open question. How does it benefit Poland? Who is it designed to defend against?

Of course - nobody would blindly trust. However, fear of ruffling Russia's feathers is not going to give heavy consideration when it comes to US foreign policy. Do you seriously think that it would?

Part of the problem I think is that the US does not give enough considerization to the effects of their actions on other countries. The question is how many "enemies" do we {The Western nations} need? I would prefer to see more cooperation with Russia to eliminate the "Radical Muslim" cancer.

Do you really think they would be "unknown" missiles that we know nothing about??? Come on - Think outside of the theoretical vacuum.

How would the west know what missiles are onboard Russian Cargo ships?
Some missile platforms are dual purpose, could you not rig up a "Patriot" size missile with an NBC warhead?

Why would those actions you said earlier be those of a terrorist state??? Because you described a Russia that would use oil/gas as a major weapon, coordinated with what you called terrorist attacks on oil tankers. How is that not a terrorist state.

Personally I don't think that Russia is above using "black ops", however using oil as an economic weapon is not terrorism, thats just economic "warfare" which has been practiced by the US every other country. As for terrorist actions against oil tankers, the culprits would never be traced back to the origin. Don't you think the Pentagon has done analysis of the various scenarios that other groups might use to affect world oil supply?

Regardless - as ramirez stated such a scenario I don't forsee since it would not be in anyone's interest, although you seem to believe that it would not harm Russia economically.

Not if it doubles the price of oil it wouldn't, as the demand will still be there after a temporary shutdown. Every potential interruption of oil supply raises the price, from hurricanes in the Gulf to political instability in Nigeria or war in Iraq.

 

[Freebird]

I'm sorry Freebird , but you are dead wrong here. The crisis in SO was in kind of frozen condition right before Saakashvili was elected. Now see what happened afterwards


So actually you see it's not that important who fired the first shot in the recent war. Saakashvili made it very clear from the very beginning - he won't leave the SO "problem" unattended unlike his predecessor Shevarnadze did. In fact there is a war going on since his election.

So you think this has nothing to do with Georgia trying to join NATO?
Do you not think that Putin would like to prevent that from happening?

current exports to China cover some 3 or 5 percents of the oil gas incomes, so that wouldn't help much either.

I'm gonna tell you what will happen if Russia cut the gas supplies. Stock market will crash within a week - actually we can see it right now. Oil prices sunk for some 20 dollars and the RTS index (Russian Dow Jones) has fallen to some 10 percents. And its still falling.
No oil gas incomes - no budjet incomes for some 40 percent. Inflation skyrockets, no money for anything. A greatest economical disaster which I could ever imagine, overshadoving the crisis of 1998 by far.
Ine one word - Russans are not kamikazes. Nobody in a sober mind in the goverment would cut off the pipeline. That would hit Russians much more harder than the Europeans who still have their strategic reserves to survive for several months.

So then do you think that Putin will just sit back and watch as Georgia Ukraine join NATO, and the missiles are sent to Poland?


Do you really think it would declare any? And if so, why the Crimea only? Heck, some 45 percent of Ukraine are ethnic Russians!
Speaking serously ,beside of some radical prorussian elements there which are not in a large number nobody really wants to cut their ties with the "continental" Ukraine.[/QUOTE]

 

[Ramirezzz]

Not if it doubles the price of oil it wouldn't, as the demand will still be there after a temporary shutdown. Every potential interruption of oil supply raises the price, from hurricanes in the Gulf to political instability in Nigeria or war in Iraq.

as been said -the short term negative effects of the oil supplies shutdown will be catastrophic for Russia in any case. Russian economy has just recovered from the ruins, such thing will surely kill it. There're many offshore factors which are highly dependent on the global economic situation, so if West suffers, Russia will suffer as well regardless how high the oil price could potentially skyrocket afterwards

So you think this has nothing to do with Georgia trying to join NATO?
Do you not think that Putin would like to prevent that from happening?

Sure he would, but not in this particular case. You see , Russia while trying to save its positions at Cacausus threatened by the Georgian invasion solved a very local problem, which is quite an old one as well.
Russia began to support the SO both financially and politically long before Saakashvili was been elected and long before Georgia expressed its wish to join NATO. That would be a rough comparison, but - like Georgia was and remains a "project" of/for the United States, so South Ossetia was a "project" of Russia.
That doesn't mean though that they (Russians) wanted to integrate SO into Russia - there were numerous requests of the South Ossetian parlament to recognise its independence, but the Kremlin hesitated doing so for some 10 years.
Look, we had a lot of problems with Shevarnadze over South Ossetia and Abkhazia in the past, and at that time Georgia hadn't declared yet its wish to join NATO. We had problems with him but somehow managed to keep things relatively quiet, as both sides weren't much interested in rising the tensions to some critcal point and because the Georgians didn't feel they are strong enough to undertake such steps at that particular moment.
But then came Saakashvili, some say an energetic young leader who wants to reunite the Georgia, while others say - a dangerous madman, who is ready to blow up the fragile peace at Caucasus apart because of his ambitions. In fact most people at Caucasus ,even some Georgians share this opinion.

So then do you think that Putin will just sit back and watch as Georgia Ukraine join NATO, and the missiles are sent to Poland?

of course they'll try to counter it, but certainly not with a military force. The other question is - those West European NATO members like Germany and Italy, are they willing to integrate both countries into the NATO, especially after recent events?
Moreover - would Ukraine itself take any further steps to join it? As it seems by the moment, the majority of the population is still against it and now Yushenko is about to loose even its fragile support in the Ukrainan Parlament while the Timoshenko party has left the coalition several days ago.

 

[JugBR]

In my opinion, there will be some sort of "Quid pro Quo" {a deal done}, Russia gives back Georgian territory and guarantees oil delivery, while the EU US back away from plans for Ukraine Georgia in NATO, and probably dump the missile shield as well.

Do we really want to inflame a crisis with Christian Russia, and lose their help against Muslim fanatics?

Similar to the deal in the 60's for USSR to pull missiles from Cuba, in return for the USA pulling missiles from Turkey.

i dont see that "quiprocó" in any scenario.

if russia gives up the struggle to make ossetia and abkhazia independent of georgia, they will not receive anything in exchange.

the missiles program will continues, the nato advance for east will continues, the isolation of russia in europe will be even greater. its better dont promisse what dont gonna be done later.

 

[mkloby]

Freebird - this conversation is going in circles. Nobody even said that the missiles would have to pass through Poland - why are you fixated on this concept???

You idea of sending in a few AT or AA Bns is foolish... and if the matter did escalate and engage Russian forces - what are these few isolated US battalions going to do? They would be overwhelmed.

You ask how do you decide when to act and when to do nothing - that is a decision that needs to incorporate many factors - and nobody is going to agree on all of them. It's not a simple black and white decision based off the fact they have troops in Iraq.

Freebird - I'm curious - have you spent any time in the military?

 

[fly boy]

I love the fact that this thread proves how people do not read. The Poll specifically says that only Czechs and Polish members can vote in the thread.

Yet somehow a German (Airfix), South African (Henk), Russian (Mitya), Mexican (smg) and an American (fly boy) have managed to vote in the poll. Way to go guys!

der adler are you talking about an icbm missle system or a rpg cuase if icbm it's kinda of more like a world porplem with it and if it is rpg then ignore my posts

 

[mkloby]

der adler are you talking about an icbm missle system or a rpg cuase if icbm it's kinda of more like a world porplem with it and if it is rpg then ignore my posts

A rocket propelled grenade anti-missile system?

 

[Matt308]

Oh no, Adler gonna have a hayday with that one.

 

[Ramirezzz]

BTW Matt (Mkloby), very moving avatar indeed. Despite being a Russian born in the USSR I have a lot of respect to the GIs who fell in combat regardless where.

 

[Freebird]

i dont see that "quiprocó" in any scenario.

if russia gives up the struggle to make ossetia and abkhazia independent of georgia, they will not receive anything in exchange.

Huh? Since when is there "something for nothing Jug? Why would they give it up if they get nothing in return? Makes no sense

A rocket propelled grenade anti-missile system?

Maybe he means RPG - Role-Playing-Game {like D&D}

Freebird - I'm curious - have you spent any time in the military?

Nope, I never got higher than "Cadet" before a fractured spine killed that option. Luckily the doctors managed to put Humpty back together

 

[mkloby]

BTW Matt (Mkloby), very moving avatar indeed. Despite being a Russian born in the USSR I have a lot of respect to the GIs who fell in combat regardless where.

Thank you very much.

 

[JugBR]

Huh? Since when is there "something for nothing Jug? Why would they give it up if they get nothing in return? Makes no sense

thats true, make no sense, then i ask you, want know other thing that makes no sense ? russia was targeting the pipelines. all press sayd that but wheres the photos ? russia will cut off the gas supply. why ? shot their feet ? no gas, no money...

its a great conspiracy theory that russia wants to have the monopoly over the fuel supply to europe, to control them and manipulates the european union...

the only true that makes sense is the fact of west fears russia. thats the only explanation i can find freebird. the west fears russia. and russia dont trust in west.

 

[ROMERO]

There is no reason or motive for the anti-missile shield, the alleged reason is false and not convince the world, Iran is a threat to israel that perhaps can protect itself.
Weapons draw weapons, or the Russians will be stopped against it? that nation would be? The United States agreed to cuba of Russian missiles in 1962? It is not clear and rightly so because it threatened his parents ... Because the russia should accept now?
We must see that Russia is no longer the Soviet Union, should be treated as a major European nation that is, must be integrated European community and not ignored. We must not turn its back for a great nation as it is, nor to the United States. I believe that the gestures of friendship must not distrust. For that to now?

 

[JugBR]

There is no reason or motive for the anti-missile shield, the alleged reason is false and not convince the world, Iran is a threat to israel that perhaps can protect itself.
Weapons draw weapons, or the Russians will be stopped against it? that nation would be? The United States agreed to cuba of Russian missiles in 1962? It is not clear and rightly so because it threatened his parents ... Because the russia should accept now?
We must see that Russia is no longer the Soviet Union, should be treated as a major European nation that is, must be integrated European community and not ignored. We must not turn its back for a great nation as it is, nor to the United States. I believe that the gestures of friendship must not distrust. For that to now?

yes, usa didnt agreed with cuba hosts soviet missiles, also russia wouldnt agree now with that.