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other way round - would Georgia attack the South Ossetia if those NATO battalions were there?
and how should Russia equialize their oil gas income losses in that case ? The natural resources incomings make up to some 40 % of the Russian annual budget.
no, it isn't. Russia hadn't intervened when Georgia was about to beating Ossetians out from the Tshinhvali in 1992. And now the situation is completely different.
There was no war for independence in Crimea, and they actually didn't declare independence at no time. With other words there is no conflict potential in this region.
And as Stasoid has said - Russia wont fight Ukraine and visa versa because of a long list of reasons. That's the thing which nobody both in Ukraine and Russia could ever imagine.
NY times said:The poor relations between Ukraine and Russia, already tense over Ukraine's nuclear weapons and its inability to pay for Russian oil, are likely to be aggravated by the election on Jan. 16 of the first President of Crimea.
A peninsula with balmy weather and a beautiful coast that juts into the Black Sea, Crimea is home to the Black Sea Fleet, an aging fleet of rusting ships that Ukraine and Russia continue to bicker over.
Many Russians believe that since Catherine the Great annexed the Crimea in 1782, this piece of strategically placed real estate rightfully belongs to them. But Ukraine was handed Crimea in 1954 by Nikita S. Khrushchev, and when it became a independent from the Soviet Union two years ago Crimea stayed inside Ukraine.
Now, after two years of watching the Ukrainian economy collapse -- and the once relatively prosperous Crimean economy along with it -- there is a growing clamor here for Crimea to rejoin Russia.
Thus, the elections are not just about choosing a President of Crimea, a new title and position intended to give Crimea an aura of separation from Ukraine. The campaign is about Crimea's future relationship with Russia.
Relations between Ukraine and Russia have been tense in recent years, mainly due to the presence of Russian troops on the Crimean Peninsula, where Russia's Black Sea Fleet is based. Moreover, the Autonomous Republic of Crimea is the only Ukrainian region with an ethnic Russian majority: according to Minority Rights Group, Russians make up 60% of the Crimean population, with 24% Ukrainian and 12% Tatar.
According to RFE/RL, there is a general feeling among Crimea's ethnic Russian population that the peninsula should be reintegrated into the Russian Federation, while the ethnic Ukrainian population sees the Russian military presence as a continuing "act of aggression
I completely agree with you on missile shield issue. USA certainly don't want any Russian backed military alliance in Caribbean region, we don't want it in the Eastern Europe for the very same reasons.
Well, western newspapers didn't hesitate to call the Russian operation in Chechnja an invasion, so why should we hesitate here either?When you say "Georgia attack S. Ossetia" it makes it sound like attacking a foreign country, yet until this crisis S. Ossetia was part of Georgia, not even Russia recognised it as a separate country. So according to Georgia they would be "bringing back order to an area under control of some armed rebels."
which credible information exactly? Those constantly repeated claims by Georgians?There is credible information that the crisis was provoked by S. Ossetia shelling Georgian troops, who then responded.
I wish it would!Whether you believe Georgia's version of events, the truth will eventually come out.
I'm sorry Freebird , but you are dead wrong here. The crisis in SO was in kind of frozen condition right before Saakashvili was elected. Now see what happened afterwardsRamirezz {or anyone} Is it a coincedence that there had not been a crisis in S. Ossetia for 16 years, but right after Bush's visit to promote NATO membership the whole thing blows up?
I wouldnt be so sure here.{You can bet that the usual cast of America-haters Chavez Iran slow down shipments too}
Russia can still export to China {at the higher price} and
I'm gonna tell you what will happen if Russia cut the gas supplies. Stock market will crash within a week - actually we can see it right now. Oil prices sunk for some 20 dollars and the RTS index (Russian Dow Jones) has fallen to some 10 percents. And its still falling.Russia will recoup ALL of it's lost $$$ within a few months by selling to the now freezing Europeans at $200/ barrel.
Do you really think it would declare any? And if so, why the Crimea only? Heck, some 45 percent of Ukraine are ethnic Russians!WHAT??? No potential for conflict? If Crimea declares independance from Ukraine, and Ukraine sends troops in to "put down the sepratists" do you really think Russia will stand by and do nothing????
Are you seriously pretending to know the exact capabilities of the missile system to be installed? Why would you think it would have to necessarily pass through Poland???Any missile launched from Iran or Syria etc. will not be passing through Poland. The only missiles it would defend against would be Russian, and the ABM shield is seen by the Russians as chipping away at MAD {mutually assured destruction}
I did not say that - what I said is that aiding a NATO ally is a different scenario from a state that is not a NATO member state.Do we only help NATO countries? The USA is pledged to protect S. Korea Taiwan, which do not belong to NATO last time I checked. Georgia has been a strong ally to the USA, sending more troops {per capita} to fight Iraq than any other nation, including the USA! Do you not think that the US should have helped to protect Georgia, seeing as it was your President's call for NATO membership that precipitated the crisis? Are we {NATO} such fair-weather friends?
Your rape comparison - not reasonable at all. Regardless, of course there are other options and possibilities that could have been implemented. Stratlifting a few anti-tank and anti-air bn's to Georgia - not a militarily sound idea at all.I thought it was a reasonably comparative analysis. Do you think we have no moral or honorable duty to help defend our ally that is attacked?
Perhaps if NATO had put a few AT SAM battalions on the Georgian side of the Ossetian border in the first 48 hours, then Russia would not have occupied Georgian territory, but stopped at the Georgia/Ossetia border. As it is now it doesn't look like the Russians will be leaving georgia proper the port of Poti anytime soon.
I don't know what you mean there. You refuse to see any value or benefit from the installation of the missile system and look at it as soley antagonizing Russia, if I'm reading your posts correctly. Obviously, I disagree. And yes, my Grandpa was a Marine too!Capt. Mkloby, do not confuse Mr. Freebird's opinions with that of Mr. Putin please.My grandfather and probably yours were on the same side in the fight against Fascism Communism, some of my Grandfather's relatives never made it back home. We are on the same side here.
Of course - nobody would blindly trust. However, fear of ruffling Russia's feathers is not going to give heavy consideration when it comes to US foreign policy. Do you seriously think that it would?My point was that if I was President and Russia was putting missiles in Cuba, I would not trust Mr. Putin's claim that missiles are only "defensive". Putin has no reason to trust us either. Suppose next week that Russia starts shipping "unknown" cargo to Cuba and insists that it is only "defensive missiles".
Do you really think they would be "unknown" missiles that we know nothing about??? Come on - Think outside of the theoretical vacuum.1.} Would we allow Russia to ship "unknown" missiles to Cuba?
2.} Would we demand to inspect the cargo before it lands in Cuba?
3.} If the cargo is accompanied by Russian warships, what then?
4.} If Russia demands to inspect these "defensive missiles" in Poland, do we allow it?
Why would they be a terrorist state? It's their oil and they are free to sell it or not as they see fit, according to international law. if Europe is totally dependant on getting more than 50% of its oil gas from Russia, that's too bad. If people are freezing in Europe this winter, Russia will blame NATO for initiating a crisis. Can the US supply half of Europe's needed oil gas this winter? Oh, and by the way you can probably count on Venezuala Iran to help Russia to create a shortage drive prices up.
Are you seriously pretending to know the exact capabilities of the missile system to be installed? Why would you think it would have to necessarily pass through Poland???
I did not say that - what I said is that aiding a NATO ally is a different scenario from a state that is not a NATO member state.
Stratlifting a few anti-tank and anti-air bn's to Georgia - not a militarily sound idea at all.
I don't know what you mean there. You refuse to see any value or benefit from the installation of the missile system and look at it as soley antagonizing Russia, if I'm reading your posts correctly. Obviously, I disagree. And yes, my Grandpa was a Marine too!
Of course - nobody would blindly trust. However, fear of ruffling Russia's feathers is not going to give heavy consideration when it comes to US foreign policy. Do you seriously think that it would?
Do you really think they would be "unknown" missiles that we know nothing about??? Come on - Think outside of the theoretical vacuum.
Why would those actions you said earlier be those of a terrorist state??? Because you described a Russia that would use oil/gas as a major weapon, coordinated with what you called terrorist attacks on oil tankers. How is that not a terrorist state.
Regardless - as ramirez stated such a scenario I don't forsee since it would not be in anyone's interest, although you seem to believe that it would not harm Russia economically.
I'm sorry Freebird , but you are dead wrong here. The crisis in SO was in kind of frozen condition right before Saakashvili was elected. Now see what happened afterwards
So actually you see it's not that important who fired the first shot in the recent war. Saakashvili made it very clear from the very beginning - he won't leave the SO "problem" unattended unlike his predecessor Shevarnadze did. In fact there is a war going on since his election.
current exports to China cover some 3 or 5 percents of the oil gas incomes, so that wouldn't help much either.
I'm gonna tell you what will happen if Russia cut the gas supplies. Stock market will crash within a week - actually we can see it right now. Oil prices sunk for some 20 dollars and the RTS index (Russian Dow Jones) has fallen to some 10 percents. And its still falling.
No oil gas incomes - no budjet incomes for some 40 percent. Inflation skyrockets, no money for anything. A greatest economical disaster which I could ever imagine, overshadoving the crisis of 1998 by far.
Ine one word - Russans are not kamikazes. Nobody in a sober mind in the goverment would cut off the pipeline. That would hit Russians much more harder than the Europeans who still have their strategic reserves to survive for several months.
as been said -the short term negative effects of the oil supplies shutdown will be catastrophic for Russia in any case. Russian economy has just recovered from the ruins, such thing will surely kill it. There're many offshore factors which are highly dependent on the global economic situation, so if West suffers, Russia will suffer as well regardless how high the oil price could potentially skyrocket afterwardsNot if it doubles the price of oil it wouldn't, as the demand will still be there after a temporary shutdown. Every potential interruption of oil supply raises the price, from hurricanes in the Gulf to political instability in Nigeria or war in Iraq.
Sure he would, but not in this particular case. You see , Russia while trying to save its positions at Cacausus threatened by the Georgian invasion solved a very local problem, which is quite an old one as well.So you think this has nothing to do with Georgia trying to join NATO?
Do you not think that Putin would like to prevent that from happening?
of course they'll try to counter it, but certainly not with a military force. The other question is - those West European NATO members like Germany and Italy, are they willing to integrate both countries into the NATO, especially after recent events?So then do you think that Putin will just sit back and watch as Georgia Ukraine join NATO, and the missiles are sent to Poland?
In my opinion, there will be some sort of "Quid pro Quo" {a deal done}, Russia gives back Georgian territory and guarantees oil delivery, while the EU US back away from plans for Ukraine Georgia in NATO, and probably dump the missile shield as well.
Do we really want to inflame a crisis with Christian Russia, and lose their help against Muslim fanatics?
Similar to the deal in the 60's for USSR to pull missiles from Cuba, in return for the USA pulling missiles from Turkey.
I love the fact that this thread proves how people do not read. The Poll specifically says that only Czechs and Polish members can vote in the thread.
Yet somehow a German (Airfix), South African (Henk), Russian (Mitya), Mexican (smg) and an American (fly boy) have managed to vote in the poll. Way to go guys!
der adler are you talking about an icbm missle system or a rpg cuase if icbm it's kinda of more like a world porplem with it and if it is rpg then ignore my posts
i dont see that "quiprocó" in any scenario.
if russia gives up the struggle to make ossetia and abkhazia independent of georgia, they will not receive anything in exchange.
A rocket propelled grenade anti-missile system?
Freebird - I'm curious - have you spent any time in the military?
BTW Matt (Mkloby), very moving avatar indeed. Despite being a Russian born in the USSR I have a lot of respect to the GIs who fell in combat regardless where.
Huh? Since when is there "something for nothing Jug? Why would they give it up if they get nothing in return? Makes no sense
There is no reason or motive for the anti-missile shield, the alleged reason is false and not convince the world, Iran is a threat to israel that perhaps can protect itself.
Weapons draw weapons, or the Russians will be stopped against it? that nation would be? The United States agreed to cuba of Russian missiles in 1962? It is not clear and rightly so because it threatened his parents ... Because the russia should accept now?
We must see that Russia is no longer the Soviet Union, should be treated as a major European nation that is, must be integrated European community and not ignored. We must not turn its back for a great nation as it is, nor to the United States. I believe that the gestures of friendship must not distrust. For that to now?