Do we need bigger amphibian water bombers?

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With wildfires burning from Vancouver Island to St. John's NL, we clearly need to expedite production and operation of more De Havilland DHC-515 Firefighter water bombers. And given the wildfires across much of the world, the market for the these aircraft is strong.

Opinion: It’s not a bird! It’s a Super Scooper plane, Canada’s most powerful waterbombing tool to fight against wildfires

If Canada rerouted some fighter jet funding to churning out squadrons of water bombers, this country could contribute substantially to the global war against wildfires
www.theglobeandmail.com
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But the current lead time for a single new aircraft is about five years.
 
Why is it so hard for Canada to just make things? It always seems like this endless process to be finished years in the future...

And then there are the cost overruns.
 
Sisu said:
Why is it so hard for Canada to just make things? It always seems like this endless process to be finished years in the future...

And then there are the cost overruns.
Click to expand...
Typical lead time on new engines from any division of Pratt is 24-36 months....Blanks for bulkhead forgings can run 18-36 months depending on mill orders and if the bulkheads have to go to Cleveland for forging, maybe 24 months to get press time.
 
Crimea_River said:
Interesting article in today's city paper on this topic:

Calgary Herald ePaper

What I don't understand is why DHC can't or won't get into a licensing agreement to have these high-demand birds built globally.
Click to expand...
It takes between two and three years to simply stand up a new production facility after the decision is made and the building is completed. Within that, you have to hire and train workers, qualify processes and tooling as well. On top of that, depending on size, you're out several hundred million dollars or more before the first rivet is driven at the new facility.
 
Well firstly we are lucky that the option of the DHC 515 even exists today, given the history of aviation in Canada. De Havilland Aircraft of Canada is now the name covering a bunch of projects that Bombardier divested themselves of over the years

But lets look at some facts. Just what is the market size:-

Historical
CL 215 built - 125 between 1969 & 1990 (25 refitted as CL 215T and another 7 as CL 415EAF)
CL 415 / CL 415 EAF built - 95 from 1995 to 2015 (incl 3 CL 415MP & 6 CL 415GR)

So in 45 years the market demand was for 220 new aircraft or 5 aircraft per year.

A lot of figures are bandied around about the growing size of the market in $ terms, but I see little in terms of aircraft numbers. And what size of aircraft are we talking about if those figures can be found? Today we have everything from small helicopters with buckets to Boeing 747 dropping from < 3,000 ltr to nearly 74,000 ltr. Just what is the expected market for a DHC 515 fire fighter dropping 7,000 ltr. I haven't been able to find any figures. What I did note was the growing use of helicopters rather than fixed wing aircraft. Historically, the main problem has been the cost of aircraft hence the preponderance of second hand types in the role.

CL (now DHC) 515 was only launched in 2019 (after Viking now DHC acquired the programme in 2016) and it hasn't yet flown (ff due this year) and then needs to be certificated (which is due to happen by end of 2028). And the order book stands at only 54 aircraft so far as I can tell. Who knows what problems might crop up before then. So at the moment they don't have a product to licence. And, as a commercial organisation, why would you licence production and thereby share the profits if you can deal with the demand from your own resources. And even if a licence were to be granted today, how long before another company could start building new aircraft given the lead times already noted for things like engines noted above.

I'm sure that DHC will have some idea of the expected growth in their sector of the market. They are building a new factory that will allow increased production of the DHC 515 once it enters production and the other types they are currently marketing as noted in the article. What evidence do you have that they won't be able to meet that demand from their own resources.

You can also blame your Govts for being late to the party. Manitoba ordered after the EU and has then only ordered 3. Ontario is still talking about ordering 6.
 
So Canada built how many Canso variants in how long a time period? I would guess a PBY would be somewhat similar in size to one of these modern water droppers. Why could we do this for a competitive price in the 1940s but not in the new century? I am quite mystified by this strange new corporate world we live in these days...
 
Demand and urgency. Money was available for factories, workers and the gov't demanded them.
 
Sisu said:
Why is it so hard for Canada to just make things?
Click to expand...
The challenge is scale. Here's DeHavilland Canada producing Mosquitos during WW2. Seemingly two dozen at a time.



And here's the DeHavilland Canada factory making the water bombers, two at a time.



They have a significant order book already, so any new orders would be five years plus, unless the Canadian government backstops an emergency plant expansion. Trouble with that is what to do once everyone has their water bombers. These aircraft last for decades.
 
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