Fixing the Italian Military, 1933~1945 (7 Viewers)

[cherry blossom]

We are going into alternate history rather than looking at technology but might one see a big change as early as July 1940. After Italy's declaration of war, the Mediterranean was closed to British merchant ships. Without that, attacking the Vichy fleet had the downside that the Mediterranean could be closed by a hostile Tunisia. So might we have a divergence at that point? That might allow Vichy more freedom from German control as they could threaten to send their fleet to help Britain if invaded. If Germany gets bogged down in Russia, will Britain try to invade Norway or try to persuade Vichy to resume the war with a British (and possibly American) army landing in the South of France?

Not to mention that relations with Japan might also change.

 

[yulzari]

We are going into alternate history rather than looking at technology but might one see a big change as early as July 1940. After Italy's declaration of war, the Mediterranean was closed to British merchant ships. Without that, attacking the Vichy fleet had the downside that the Mediterranean could be closed by a hostile Tunisia. So might we have a divergence at that point? That might allow Vichy more freedom from German control as they could threaten to send their fleet to help Britain if invaded. If Germany gets bogged down in Russia, will Britain try to invade Norway or try to persuade Vichy to resume the war with a British (and possibly American) army landing in the South of France?

Not to mention that relations with Japan might also change.

Hanging over Vichy was the spectre of 'Case Anton', an occupation of Vichy France by the Axis and the many thousands of French PoWs held by the Germans.

The whole purpose of Vichy was to avoid occupation and preserve the safety of the French PoWs. To that end Vichy acted as a hostile neutral to the Commonwealth which prepared to meet that hostility with armed force. Thus the Royal Navy attack on the French fleet at Mers el Kibr, invading Syria and Lebanon, invading Madagascar, attempted invasions of Senegal and Gabon and ultimately the invasions of Algeria and Morocco.

Any attempt, explicit or even implicit threat to do so, by the French fleet (unlike the occasional smaller fleeing vessel) to be sent to help Britain would trigger Case Anton occupying Vichy France and ending repatriation of French POWs. The value of Vichy France to the Axis was as a source of North African foodstuffs etc. and denying the Commonwealth access to much of North Africa. All with minimal military cost other than the oversight of the Axis Armistice Commission. The Armistice obligation of Vichy was to defend their overseas territories with military force.

 

[Howard Gibson]

A neutral Italy means the Mediterranean is the RN's lake. No siege of Malta. No battleships sunk (albeit temporarily) in Alexandria. Fewer losses from submarines. On the whole, a neutral Italy is a plus for the allies. Of course, the Allie don't get to practice on the Africa Korps before starting the liberation of Europe.

The allies practise on whoever is defending Omaha Beach, under the command of Lloyd Fredendall. Giving the British and Americans practise fighting the Africa Korps was the worst part of the Mediterranean disaster.

 

[z42]

True. I wonder if in a neutral Italy the populace, politicians, industrialists and the king himself will have soured on Mussolini by 1943. The Ethiopian adventure and supporting Germany politically brought no benefit to anyone.

We're getting into the question of what would a Fascist State do if it wasn't fascist. From Mussolini's own writings:

The Fascist state is a will to power and empire. The Roman tradition is here a powerful force.

Mussolini had a burning desire for Italy to take its rightful place in the sun, and rule the Med along with some far flung colonies like the other colonial powers of the time. Surely the Italian soldier, heir to the glorious legions of Rome, could overcome some material shortages due to the lacking industrialization of Italy? Yes, it sounds silly, but everything suggests Mussolini and his ilk really believed in their own schtick.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roNlgIY9QKw

The fall of France offered Mussolini an excellent chance to begin his great adventure on the cheap.