... Force Z had survived the air attack?

[Thumpalumpacus]

How do you think that would have played out? With PoW and Repulse surviving, would that have made a subsequent difference in the Indonesian campaign, in your thinking?

I think it might have slowed down, but not stopped, the rampage in early 1942. If the two heavy ships survive, they could either play a part in slowing the Malaysian advance, or alternatively, gone to either Manila (or preferably, in my mind) to Australia, to remain a fleet-in-being.

I think PoW and Repulse being afloat may have cast an entirely different complexion over Coral Sea, for instance. At the least they could have forced Japan to devote more naval resources for conquering Indonesia.

Your thoughts?

 

[Admiral Beez]

How do you think that would have played out? With PoW and Repulse surviving, would that have made a subsequent difference in the Indonesian campaign, in your thinking?

I think it might have slowed down, but not stopped, the rampage in early 1942. If the two heavy ships survive, they could either play a part in slowing the Malaysian advance, or alternatively, gone to either Manila (or preferably, in my mind) to Australia, to remain a fleet-in-being.

I think PoW and Repulse being afloat may have cast an entirely different complexion over Coral Sea, for instance. At the least they could have forced Japan to devote more naval resources for conquering Indonesia.

Your thoughts?

Surviving the air attack is certainly doable if the RAF cover arrives. We should define survive, did either ship take any torpedo hits and just not sink, or did no torpedoes hit? The big challenge for Force Z after the air attack is the IJN surface force. Sinking of Prince of Wales and Repulse - Wikipedia

"battleships Kongō, Haruna, three Takao-class cruisers and eight destroyers. They were joined by four Mogami-class cruisers of Cruiser Division 7 and one light cruiser, four destroyers of Destroyer Squadron 3. The cruiser Chōkai, flagship of Vice Admiral Ozawa, was also ordered south to find Force Z."

I don't see how PoW, Repulse and four destroyers can fight off two battleships, nine cruisers and twelve destroyers. However if the IJN do not discover Force Z I can see the RN ships returning to Ceylon to await Indomitable and other ships.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Surviving the air attack is certainly doable if the RAF cover arrives. We should define survive, did either ship take any torpedo hits and just not sink, or did no torpedoes hit? The big challenge for Force Z after the air attack is the IJN surface force. Sinking of Prince of Wales and Repulse - Wikipedia

"battleships Kongō, Haruna, three Takao-class cruisers and eight destroyers. They were joined by four Mogami-class cruisers of Cruiser Division 7 and one light cruiser, four destroyers of Destroyer Squadron 3. The cruiser Chōkai, flagship of Vice Admiral Ozawa, was also ordered south to find Force Z."

I don't see how PoW, Repulse and four destroyers can fight off two battleships, nine cruisers and twelve destroyers. However if the IJN do not discover Force Z I can see the RN ships returning to Ceylon to await Indomitable and other ships.

I'm chiefly thinking that if Phillips had not investigated the sighting and rather continued south to Singapore, he could have stolen a march, as it were, to redeploy.

I assume that any torpedo damage to either heavy ship would require repair at Ceylon -- a mission victory from the Japanese perspective, as it still removes them from the Allied OoB for the Indonesian campaign.

I imagine bombstrikes would have had repairs attempted at Singapore, thus leaving the battlewagons available to counter the Japanese attacks in conjunction with ABDA forces under Doorman -- perhaps en passant to restationing in Australia?

You're right that by themselves (and their four escorts) the Repulse and PoW had no chance against Japanese surface forces had the latter caught them.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I assume that any torpedo damage to either heavy ship would require repair at Ceylon -- a mission victory from the Japanese perspective, as it still removes them from the Allied OoB for the Indonesian campaign.

This will need a drydock. Outside of Singapore, there are only two battleship-sized drydocks in the entire British Empire outside of the ETO/MTO, South Africa and Vancouver Island, BC. Ideally you'd want to sail them to the USA, but with only 4,000 nmi range, Repulse can't get there. So I agree, if damaged they sail to Ceylon for a patch up, but then they must sail for major repairs elsewhere.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

This will need a drydock. Outside of Singapore, there are only two battleship-sized drydocks in the entire British Empire, South Africa and Vancouver Island, BC. Ideally you'd want to sail them to the USA, but with only 4,000 nmi range, Repulse can't get there. So I agree, if damaged they sail to Ceylon for a patch up, but then they must sail for major repairs elsewhere.

I didn't know that. Thanks for the short-hairin'.

South Africa would seem to be the logical choice. Safer route, and closer to the theater than BC.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I didn't know that. Thanks for the short-hairin'.

South Africa would seem to be the logical choice. Safer route, and closer to the theater than BC.

I would argue though if Force Z has survived the air attack that neither ship was damaged, so hopefully they can play a role at Java Sea.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I would argue though if Force Z has survived the air attack that neither ship was damaged, so hopefully they can play a role at Java Sea.

That was the initial thought that prompted my WI here. Those 16 heavy guns, and PoW's radar, would have been mighty handy. Refuel at Singapore, rendezvous with friendly elements, and Doorman (or Phillips) now have two aces up a sleeve, while the Japanese are wondering where they are. Of course ABDA would still suffer its limitations of polyglot command and doctrine, but I can imagine the two ships could change the course of events.

 

[Admiral Beez]

That was the initial thought that prompted my WI here. Those 16 heavy guns, and PoW's radar, would have been mighty handy. Refuel at Singapore, rendezvous with friendly elements, and Doorman (or Phillips) now have two aces up a sleeve, while the Japanese are wondering where they are. Of course ABDA would still suffer its limitations of polyglot command and doctrine, but I can imagine the two ships could change the course of events.

Java Sea was a disaster for the ABDA fleet, losing most of their ships whilst sinking none of the IJN ships. We must recognize that the Japanese brought what they needed to ensure superiority. So if PoW and Repulse are with the ABDA we should expect Japan to send in battleships and/or carriers. Two things need to change to give our expanded ABDA a shot - replace Phillips with someone with combat fleet command experience, and wait for Indomitable and Hermes.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Java Sea was a disaster for the ABDA fleet, losing most of their ships whilst sinking none of the IJN ships. We must recognize that the Japanese brought what they needed to ensure superiority. So if PoW and Repulse are with the ABDA we should expect Japan to send in battleships and/or carriers. Two things need to change to give our expanded ABDA a shot - replace Phillips with someone with combat fleet command experience, and wait for Indomitable and Hermes.

I don't think there was that much time for those last two suggestions. I also think that if the Japanese had lost track of Force Z, they'd be using lots of resources trying to determine if they're staying to defend Singapore, moving to Javanese waters, or retreating to Ceylon.

IIRC, the Japanese used two light carriers attacking the PI. In my suggestion above that they not attack PI, those ships and planes would certainly help pin down Force Z's location.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I also think that if the Japanese had lost track of Force Z, they'd be using lots of resources trying to determine if they're staying to defend Singapore, moving to Javanese waters, or retreating to Ceylon.

I'd be sending them all to Darwin or Fremantle to await reinforcement, also where they can operate under some degree of RAAF cover.

PNG and the Solomons are at greater risk than Ceylon. Send Indomitable and (if with CAG) Hermes to join Force Z in Australia for the coming Japanese offensives and Battle of Coral Sea. Given that the Solomons were British territory the home country should contribute to their defence instead of relying on the US and Australians.

 

[ThomasP]

I am thinking that if the PoW and Repulse survived the air attacks operationally (functionally) intact, then the meeting with the Japanese fleet would have been interesting. If the RN heavies had gotten the range first then, with a little luck in the location of the hits, the Kongo and Haruna could have been neutralized fairly quickly (see PoW and Hood during the engagement with the Bismarck, and the Battle of the
River Platt for examples). Neither IJN heavy could shrug off the effects of 14" or 15" projectiles.

But IMO, the Japanese would have been smart to have sent in their DDs and CAs to get within range about the same time as the long range gunnery duel could begin. The RN would then have to decide if it was better to engage the heavies or the torpedo carrying ships. If the DDs (and/or CLs/CAs) closed to decisive torpedo range, the PoW and Repulse would most likely have been crippled very quickly.

I do not think that there is any real chance for Force Z to survive such a surface engagement, even under the conditions I set above, but it is possible that they could have done some serious dirt in the process of getting sunk. How much dirt and what effect it would have on IJN operations further down the time line??

 

[Admiral Beez]

This being an aviation forum, I suggest we need to get Force Z under air cover in the Gulf of Thailand, and then FAA warning of the IJN surface group allows Force Z to escape.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I do not think that there is any real chance for Force Z to survive such a surface engagement, even under the conditions I set above, but it is possible that they could have done some serious dirt in the process of getting sunk. How much dirt and what effect it would have on IJN operations further down the time line??

Zed won't survive that encounter. Remember, Type 24s had longer range at higher speed, with a bigger warhead, than airborne torpedoes.

How much dirt depends on who sights and shoots first, but as Beez mentioned, that's another thread.

 

[ThomasP]

OK. So we are assuming that Force Z survives the first air attack(s), the probable subsequent air attack(s), and the probable engagement with the IJN surface fleet, more or less unscathed or relatively easily repairable. (This sounds kind of like I am being sarcastic, but I am not. This type of scenario is a fairly common theme among wargamers.)

If the RN heavies had to go to Singapore there would probably be a concerted effort by the Japanese to attack them in harbor while under repairs - if the IJN considered them a serious enough threat (which they might not). Probably similar to what happened to the Illustrious and other RN ships in harbor at Malta?

Obviously, having top cover from land based or carrier based fighters could significantly affect the RN heavies chances of survival.

If the RN heavies went to Cape Town or Ceylon, I do not see it changing anything significant - either from the RN or IJN view point. Yes, they would be available for later action, but In Ceylon or Cape Town the RN heavies are no (immediate) threat to Japan.

If I am not mistaken, Force Z was in reality a target of opportunity.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Obviously, having top cover from land based or carrier based fighters could significantly affect the RN heavies chances of survival.

When you're in Japan's backyard within potential reach of its eight active aircraft carriers and hundreds of land based strike aircraft, it's Force Z's only realistic chance of survival.

Force Z will head either for Ceylon or Fremantle and await reinforcement. There is no choice. Exposing them at Java Sea to IJN cruiser and destroyer attack is suicidal. Instead wait for Admiral Fletcher and join the fight for PNG and the Solomons.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

OK. So we are assuming that Force Z survives the first air attack(s), the probable subsequent air attack(s), and the probable engagement with the IJN surface fleet, more or less unscathed or relatively easily repairable.

I'm thinking that there is no naval encounter, because Force Z sticks to their withdrawal. After all, Kondo had shaped course for Cam Rahn Bay at 0315 hrs on the 10th, judging Force Z too far away at that time. Rather than closing northwest to the coast to inspect the tug sighting, the hypothetical is that Z continues south, provisions in Singapore, and heads somewhere else.

If the RN heavies had to go to Singapore there would probably be a concerted effort by the Japanese to attack them in harbor while under repairs - if the IJN considered them a serious enough threat (which they might not). Probably similar to what happened to the Illustrious and other RN ships in harbor at Malta?

Again, if Z comes away without torpedo damage, any stay at Singapore should be very short precisely because of the danger of air attack.

Obviously, having top cover from land based or carrier based fighters could significantly affect the RN heavies chances of survival.

Sailing straight south instead of backtracking north would have put the Buffalos over Force Z earlier. Would that be early enough to disrupt the Japanese attacks?

If the RN heavies went to Cape Town or Ceylon, I do not see it changing anything significant - either from the RN or IJN view point. Yes, they would be available for later action, but In Ceylon or Cape Town the RN heavies are no (immediate) threat to Japan.

As noted above, those contingencies were only in my mind in the event damage needed to be repaired.

If I am not mistaken, Force Z was in reality a target of opportunity.

Of course. The hypothetical here, though, is "what if it is lucky enough to survive 10 Dec to fight on?" What do you do with them?

For any interested, you can read Admiralty's Historical Section recount of the sinkings here.

 

[Shortround6]

Of course. The hypothetical here, though, is "what if it is lucky enough to survive 10 Dec to fight on?" What do you do with them?

Get the Repulse to a major ship yard for an extensive refit. It has no business trying to operate in any area with contested airspace.
With it's size it is an airplane magnet of the 1st order, but equipped with a worse AA battery than most British post WW II Cruisers.
A Black Swan Sloop had as good or better AA capability.

 

[Admiral Beez]

The easiest way for Force Z to survive is to keep it out of the Gulf of Thailand entirely. Force Z was intended as a deterrent or policy influencer, same as the battleship Tirpitz was clearly on Churchill's mind. What Force Z lacked was clear orders on what to do if/when Japan declared war on Britain, so that the inexperienced Admiral Phillips isn't forced to make it up as he goes. IMO, those orders should have been "in the event that hostilities commence you are to immediately proceed to Ceylon to await further orders and reinforcement."

 

[Admiral Beez]

Get the Repulse to a major ship yard for an extensive refit. It has no business trying to operate in any area with contested airspace.
With it's size it is an airplane magnet of the 1st order, but equipped with a worse AA battery than most British post WW II Cruisers.
A Black Swan Sloop had as good or better AA capability.

It is nuts, looking at Wikipedia... total AA armament is...

• 6 × single 4 in (102 mm) AA guns
• 2 × quadruple 40 mm "pom-pom" AA guns

Let's send Repulse to the US for an armament upgrade. But where to, and via where? With its short 3,650 nmi range Repulse needs to stop for fuel. Singapore to San Diego. CA is 7741 nmi. Singapore to Newark, NJ via the Cape of Good Hope is 12,380 nmi. Both these are within the non-stop range of HMS Prince of Wales, but Repulse will have to stop many times for fuel. Did Repulse have the same evaporator issues that the Revenge class did - where there was insufficient water for her crews and boilers? It just seems that Repulse was the worst ship to send with POW, better to have sent a couple of Didos.

My reco is to send Repulse as follows:
Dec 8 - staying well west of Sumatra, head from Singapore to Freemantle, Australia. 2,500 nmi, 5 days at 18 knots. Refuel.
Dec 14 - Freemantle, south coast transit to Melbourne, 1,700 nmi, 4 days at 18 knots. Refuel
Dec 19 - Melbourne to Wellington, NZ, 1,500 nmi, 3 days at 18 knots. Refuel
Dec 23 - Wellington to Fiji to meet with fleet oiler, 1,600 nmi, 3 days. Refuel
Dec 27 - Fiji to Pearl Harbour, 2,800 nmi, 7 days at 18 knots. Refuel
Jan 03 - Meetings with naval staff. Possible meet up with HMS Prince of Wales (arrived non-stop a week ago).
Jan 08 - Pearl to San Diego, 2,300 nmi, 5 days.
Jan 10 - Refit and re-armament of Repulse begins.

Just look at the logistical nightmare such a short ranged ship presents. It is possible to add to her bunker fuel space?

 

[SaparotRob]

It is nuts, looking at Wikipedia... total AA armament is...

• 6 × single 4 in (102 mm) AA guns
• 2 × quadruple 40 mm "pom-pom" AA guns

Let's send Repulse to the US for an armament upgrade. But where to, and via where? With its short 3,650 nmi range Repulse needs to stop for fuel. Singapore to San Diego. CA is 7741 nmi. Singapore to Newark, NJ via the Cape of Good Hope is 12,380 nmi. Both these are within the non-stop range of HMS Prince of Wales, but Repulse will have to stop many times for fuel. Did Repulse have the same evaporator issues that the Revenge class did - where there was insufficient water for her crews and boilers? It just seems that Repulse was the worst ship to send with POW, better to have sent a couple of Didos.

My reco is to send Repulse as follows:
Dec 8 - staying well west of Sumatra, head from Singapore to Freemantle, Australia. 2,500 nmi, 5 days at 18 knots. Refuel.
Dec 14 - Freemantle, south coast transit to Melbourne, 1,700 nmi, 4 days at 18 knots. Refuel
Dec 19 - Melbourne to Wellington, NZ, 1,500 nmi, 3 days at 18 knots. Refuel
Dec 23 - Wellington to Fiji to meet with fleet oiler, 1,600 nmi, 3 days. Refuel
Dec 27 - Fiji to Pearl Harbour, 2,800 nmi, 7 days at 18 knots. Refuel
Jan 03 - Meetings with naval staff. Possible meet up with HMS Prince of Wales (arrived non-stop a week ago).
Jan 08 - Pearl to San Diego, 2,300 nmi, 5 days.
Jan 10 - Refit and re-armament of Repulse begins.

Just look at the logistical nightmare such a short ranged ship presents. It is possible to add to her bunker fuel space?

Glad you added that itinerary. I was trying to figure out the "from where to, and via where?" part. I was ready to give up and have HMS Repulse pull an "Operation Ten-Go".