Ignoring for the moment the pre-war aircraft carriers, the US Navy built and planned to build an astounding number of aircraft carriers during World War II. The Navy ordered 36 Essex-class fleet carriers, and of that 24 were built. They ordered 9 Independence-class light carriers, all of which were built, they ordered 6 Midway-class "battle carriers", and 3 were built (seeing service after the war.) (I'll give them credit, they actually cancelled the other three during the war.) The Navy put in service over 100 escort carriers of various types. The Navy ordered 35 Commencement Bay-class super escort carriers. Of these, 19 were put into service and 19 were scrapped before completion.
My question is this: How did the Navy figure that this many aircraft carriers were necessary, did they crunch the numbers on the resources that would be necessary to build the carriers, crew the carriers, provide the aircraft, fuel, bombs, etc? The training? The escorts, bases, mobile replenishment, etc.? If anybody has a source for the numbers underlying the Navy's planning, I'd love to see it.
Firstly you need to draw a distinction between planned and ordered.
32 Essex class planned during the war forming part of the following shipbuilding programmes:-
1939 1 (Essex)
1940 10 (3 under Two Ocean Navy Act of 14 June 1940 + 7 more in Aug following the fall of France)
1941 2 (further expansion authorised in late 1941 and ordered immediately after Pearl Harbor)
1942 10 (ordered 7 Aug 1942 following big 1942 carrier battles as part of the Maximum War Effort Programme)
1943 3 (ordered June 1943)
1944 6
The first 11 ships occupied all the available carrier berths when they were ordered. 9 of the 10 1942 were built in US Navy Yards that had space following the delay to, and eventual cancellation of, the Montana class Battleships. The last 6, CV50-55, were part of the 1944 shipbuilding programme, and while building berths were identified for them, it was clear by March 1945 that the war would be over before they could be completed and the losses were less than expected so they were cancelled.
The expansion of the Essex Programme in 1942 to the Navy Yards allowed ships to be laid down there before the final ships of the 1940 and 1941 Programmes were laid down in the mostly civilian yards they had been ordered from. As a demonstration of the effort put in, build time was originally planned to be 3 years. Essex herself took 20 months and some as little as 18 months.
17 were completed by Aug 1945, with another 6 by the end of 1946. The remaining 3 were suspended at the end of the war with CV34 Oriskany being the last to complete to a much modified design in 1950. The other pair were scrapped incomplete.
The CVL were FDR's idea and virtually forced on the USN at the end of 19941. As it was they provided a much needed reinforcement of the fast carrier forces in the late 1943/early 1944 period courtesy of their very quick build times. CVL48 & 49 were ordered in anticipation of attrition amongst the original 9.
At one point the USN intended to operate carriers as divisions of 2xCV + 1xCVL and did so for a while in 1943/44 before more Essex became available.
The USN wanted 4 of the Armoured deck Midway class (CVB40-44) as part of the 1942 Maximum War Effort Programme, but this was opposed by FDR who was concerned that they would not be ready for the current war. In Aug 1942 he refused to sanction their construction while signing off on everything else. He was eventually persuaded to authorise 2 in Nov 1942 and a third in May 1943 by which time the final ship had been cancelled. The final pair (CVB56 & 57) were part of the 1945 Programme which FDR disapproved, except for the escort carriers, in March 1943 probably because he again felt they would not be ready for the current war. But they lingered on in USN planning until formally cancelled in March 1945 when it was clear that they would not be required.
FDR, as someone very pro-navy, really liked the whole CVE concept and couldn't get enough of them as can be seen from the above. More of them were probably built than really necessary due to the mass production efforts in Kaiser yards. Uses were found for them however as transports and to support USMC air Groups. The later larger Commencement Bay class ships were less austere and more capable ships.