Hurricane Patricia slams into Mexico

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Michael, Nope, never gonna happen I loves my dead cow grilled over charcoal - yummy!
As to water vapor, read my essay - I personally do not consider water vapor as a greenhouse gas - It is a MULTIPLIER of the effects caused by the 4 classic gasses. Further more the amount of water vapor is determined by temperature in an ever increasing spiral.

Nitrous oxide (better known as laughing gas) emissions are produced by both natural and human sources. Natural sources include soils under natural vegetation and the oceans. Natural sources create 62% of total emissions. Human sources come from agriculture, fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes. Human-related sources are responsible for 38% of total emissions.
Though only 38% of the total, these human activities have added large quantities of reactive nitrogen compounds to the environment and have virtually doubled the mainly natural inputs existing at the beginning of the industrial age. This has increased nitrous oxide emissions by about 40-50% over pre-industrial levels.
Before the Industrial Revolution, the atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide was maintained in a safe range of levels by natural sinks. But for a long time now human activities have been creating emissions much more rapidly than the Earth can remove them. Nitrous oxide levels are now higher today than at any other time during the last 800,000 years
So while these human sources of nitrous oxide are smaller than natural emissions, they upset the balance in the nitrogen cycle that existed before the Industrial Revolution. Before the influence of humans, nitrous oxide levels were quite steady because of this natural balance.
Soils under natural vegetation create 7.3 million tons of nitrous oxide each year.
Ocean microbes acting on sinking pellets produce 4.2 million tons of nitrous oxide annually.
Chemical reactions in the atmosphere, i.e., the oxidization of ammonia from natural sources creates 660,000 tons of nitrous oxide annually.
Now add the 7.7 million tons from human activity and – Problem!
OK, back to methane, as you posted there natural sources of methane emissions. The main natural sources include wetlands, termites and the oceans. Natural sources create 36% of methane emissions. Whereas human sources such as landfills, livestock farming, as well as the production, transportation and use of fossil fuels create the majority of methane emissions, accounting for 64% of the total. So as with nitrous oxide, the atmospheric concentration of methane was maintained in a fairly constant range by natural sinks.
Once the Industrial Revolution began we have seen methane levels more than double over the last 150 years. Human activities have been creating methane emissions much more rapidly than the Earth can remove them, increasing global methane levels. During the last 800,000 years, methane concentrations naturally varied between 350-800 ppb but since the Industrial Revolution, methane levels have become much higher and are now 2.5 times larger.
The Cooling Earth – as you posted, there are indeed some scientists, that have been arguing that the world is indeed headed for a cooling phase based on solar cycles. Scientists from Germany to India have argued that weakening solar activity could bring about another "Little Ice Age."
There has been decreasing solar activity since 1998. From 1900 to 1998, solar radiation increased by 1.3 W / m², but since 1998 it has diminished, and could reach values similar to those of the early 20th century. Based on the number of sunspots which vary in a cyclic pattern not since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906 has there been a solar cycle with fewer sunspots. We are currently more than six years into Solar Cycle 24 and the current nearly blank sun may signal the end of the solar maximum phase. Historically, going back to 1755, there have been only a few solar cycles in the previous 23 that have had a lower number of sunspots during its maximum phase.
So Michael, what I see is not a global conspiracy but, as with all human activity, those who jump on the bandwagon and beat the drum for their own gain.
 
Great post, Mike. I appreciate the thoroughness of your research. I don't believe there is a 'conspiracy' but see a bandwagon effect as you do, but, remark on the appeal of this wagon and the people to whom it appeals with the red wagon - communism in the '20s, '30s etc. Self-described intellectuals. There are two basic physiological types - rendering two basic political outlooks :) The Glass is Half Empty People and The Glass is Half Full People. I am one of the latter. I generally appreciate the world and the universe I find myself in. There's little to nothing I would change about any of it. It's not FAIR. It's CRUEL. It's ARBITRARY. It's ABSOLUTE. ... And I have FAITH in the whole lot of it.

So when you post: "they upset the balance in the nitrogen cycle that existed before the Industrial Revolution." I reply that 'balance' in nature is never ever more than a brief moment in (geological) time. If we go into a cooling dive analogous to the Little Ice Age most gaseous emissions will fall dramatically, IMHO.
El Nino winters have a huge effect on humans ... yet we know that such events were reported by Spanish missionaries mid-16th Century ... as anchovies and such abandoned the warming water.

Our world with all it's life aboard is a spinning top ... it wobbles .... but that what tops do. :) I accept that reality with wonder and curiosity.
 
Michael, I tries to do my homework. You and I are not that far apart in our opinions.
Natures balance is simply the law of averages. A large deer population causes the wolf population to increase which causes more deer kills decreasing the deer population which decreases deer kills causing wolves to starve decreasing the wolf population leading to more deer surviving and so on. The deer and wolf populations vary but are in "balance" so to speak. It is the same with our greenhouse gasses. For 800,000 years methane varied from 350-800 ppb just like the deer-wolf balance. Methane in the troposphere reacts with hydroxyl (OH) radicals, forming mainly water and carbon dioxide. Methane and hydroxyl radicals balancing each other.
In total this reaction accounts for about 550 million tons of methane each year. An indirect effect of atmospheric methane oxidation is that it can magnify the effects of other pollutants. Increased methane in the atmosphere means fewer OH radicals and so less oxidizing power in the atmosphere as a whole. Some methane, about 4 million tons a year, is oxidized in the same way, but in our stratosphere. Nitrous oxide is also oxidized by OH radicals so the two gases have a synergistic effect as each consumes OH radicals. With OH depletion the two greenhouse gasses build up in the atmosphere. We've exceeded the sinks ability
Let's take another tack...Indians (to be PC Native Americans though that term has always puzzled me) are often portrayed as natural conservators the ultimate ecofriendly humans. Nothing could be further from the truth. They used every piece of a buffalo (bison) not for the sake of conservation but because bison were big, mean, and hard to kill. An early pioneer journal records the approach to an Indian village: "I see the garbage pile but where is the village". Indians set prairie fires and drove herds of bison over cliffs. Indians put raw sewage into the rivers and streams
My point in all this is that Indian pollution per capita was no less than ours BUT all Indian waste fit into the natural sinks AND their population was not in the 530 million range producing waste in the millions of tons range thus overloading those sinks. Indian waste did not include Fluro and Chlor compounds which never existed before and therefore have no natural sinks. Indian waste was not radioactive.
Michael, like you I love this world and just about everything in it though flies, mosquitos, wasps, and deadly poison bearing critters could vanish. My faith is that the system will restore balance at some point with or without humans. SO I fear where that new balance be...I suspect a planet with a LOT fewer humans will be the result or the wholesale destruction of the "natural" world to support a 50 billion human population.
 
".....I suspect a planet with a LOT fewer humans will be the result "

Peak and crash, peak and crash .... we are no different than any other population of critters when you get past the religious beliefs and down to the square root of it all.
 
about time for a pandemic....nothing like a good old plague to thin the population. there are theories that a plague is what did in the mayans and other "vanished mysteriously" cultures....
 
and along comes MRSA and worseA. with the speed and ease of travel these days a pandemic would be worldwide at break neck speed. I saw a study a while back where terrorists had considered infecting suicide soldiers with some sort of plague ( small pox, etc. ) and getting them into major cities to spread the disease... but concluded it would end up backfiring on them and would end up wiping out their support base in the process, as once started they could not contain the plague.
 

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