Hypothetical LW confrontation

[tyrodtom]

Can you point to historical documents supporting your statement?

Everything I have read suggests Britain was determined to have Stalin as a military ally even if he demanded both Poland and Finland. That British foreign policy became more pronounced after Churchill became PM.

Surely you don't mean the same Churchill who very much supported the post WW1 expedition to Russia to aid the White Russians, and made the statement that bolshevism should be strangled in it's cradle.
You need to come up with some historical documents yourself that Churchill, one of the leading anticommunists of his time, was pro-Russian proir to Germany's invasion of Russia.

 

[wiking85]

They not violated pact in regard Moldavia (Bessarabia) that was indicated in the article 3rd of secret additional protocol of German-Soviet non aggresion pact

With it they also seized parts of Bukovina that was not agreed to by Germany, but later acceded to because of the French campaign.

 

[Tante Ju]

Can you point to historical documents supporting your statement?

Everything I have read suggests Britain was determined to have Stalin as a military ally even if he demanded both Poland and Finland. That British foreign policy became more pronounced after Churchill became PM.

War Cabinet meetings are downloadable from Britain archive site... they have this information.

 

[davebender]

Axis Order of Battle for Operation Barbarossa

Ju-88 Production. 1939, 1940 and 1941. From Wikipedia.
5,057. Includes bombers, fighters and recon aircraft.

Me-110 Production. 1939, 1940 and 1941. From Wikipedia.
2,021. Includes fighter and recon aircraft.

Ju-88. 270. Luftlotte 1. Supporting Army Group North.
Ju-88. 77. Luftflotte 2. Supporting Army Group Center.
Ju-88. 163. Luftlotte 4. Supporting Army Group South.
Ju-88. 65. Luftlotte 5. Norway. Not all available for use against Russia.
…..575 total. Includes all Ju-88s in Norway.
…..Without war in west it's reasonable to think at least 3,500 would be available for Operation Barbarossa.

Me-110. 0. Luftlotte 1.
Me-110. 177. Luftlotte 2.
Me-110. 0. Luftlotte 4.
Me-110. 12. Luftlotte 5.
…..189 total. Includes all Me-110s in Norway.
…..Without war in west it's reasonable to think at least 1,500 would be available for Operation Barbarossa.

A potentially huge increase in CAS aircraft for support of Operation Barbarossa during the summer of 1941.

There will be more Ju-87 dive bombers too but their impact will be smaller as so few Ju-87s were produced during 1939 to 1941.

 

[Vincenzo]

i don't think so probably just few hundreds more not few thousands

 

[davebender]

Where would the other 3,000 or so Ju-88As and Me-110Cs be assigned during the summer of 1941?

 

[wiking85]

Where is this 3000 number coming from? 20-25% of all german aircraft production in 1940-1 was either rejected for being too poorly manufactured or lost in flight for that reason or was withdrawn from service because of poor quality (The Most Dangerous Enemy: A History of the Battle of Britain: Stephen Bungay: 9781854108012: Amazon.com: Books), while the major losses of the Western campaigns in 1940-1 would severely degrade numbers. Even avoiding some of the losses of the Battle of Britain and the Blitz, there still is the French campaign which saw some 40% of Luftwaffe strength damaged or destroyed. Plus even if we assume that the British exit the war before Barbarossa, we cannot say that there would be no losses after the Fall of France, as Britain would likely require some persuading to quit the war. Plus Barbarossa started in June and you're including production from the other six months of 1941 that would not be available at the start of the campaign. Even over the course of the campaign, it would take time to get newly finished aircraft 'flown in' and ready for deployment, meaning that even the remaining 6 months production would not all be available to the Luftwaffe in 1941, nor would the Luftwaffe be able to base all of the new aircraft by October-December due to weather and supply concerns. Plus there would be aircraft losses to the cold if they couldn't find heated hangers for them, which means it makes no sense to send them east only to be destroyed in the cold before or after little flight time.

Luftwaffe OOB in 1941:
Luftwaffe Orders of Battle 24 June 1941, 27 July 1942, and 17 May 1943
Some 3,428 aircraft IN ALL THEATERS. IIRC the average was about 68% serviceability at the start of campaigns. There weren't anywhere near that many Ju88's and Me110s available in 1941. Even with a reduction in losses over Britain (as the OP didn't suggest that there was no Western campaign at all), there would be no where near that many anyway.

So we are looking at only about 500 or so more aircraft of ALL TYPES in June 1941. Depending on airfield constraints, its likely that many of these would end up in reserve too.

 

[davebender]

Assuming that the LW was minimally envolved in the West

Apparently you define "minimally envolved" different from me. Your defination makes this scenerio essentially the same as what happened historically.

 

[tyrodtom]

I think most see that Germany can't get to Russia without going thru Poland, so there would be some western involvement in the war,
Since the op never enlightened us on WHY there's minimal envolvement. We're all left to decide for ourselves.
Did Britain and France never get envolved at all ?
Or did they enter the war, lose, and then sue for peace ?

There would be a lot of difference to the resources availible to the Luftwaffe with those two different scenarios.

 

[wiking85]

Apparently you define "minimally envolved" different from me. Your defination makes this scenerio essentially the same as what happened historically.

My scenario is quite different than what happened historically. Losses would be somewhat similar, but the Mediterranean and Western European Luftwaffe elements would be in the East by June 1941 instead of committed where they were historically.

 

[davebender]

Germany can't get to Russia without going thru Poland, so there would be some western involvement in the war

Perhaps Britain encouraged Poland to accept a plebiscite concerning Danzig rather then encouraging Poland to fight. This opens the door to further German-Polish cooperation.

Poland disliked the Soviet Union even more then Germany. The 1939 Soviet invasion of Finland causes Poland to sign a military alliance with Germany.

The ongoing Polish-Soviet border dispute leads to open war during 1941. Germany mobilizes in support of their Polish ally.

Britain wisely remains neutral. Marxist France sympathizes with the Soviet Union but is restrained by British diplomacy as happened during the Spanish Civil War.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Perhaps Britain encouraged Poland to accept a plebiscite concerning Danzig rather then encouraging Poland to fight. This opens the door to further German-Polish cooperation.

Poland disliked the Soviet Union even more then Germany. The 1939 Soviet invasion of Finland causes Poland to sign a military alliance with Germany.

The ongoing Polish-Soviet border dispute leads to open war during 1941. Germany mobilizes in support of their Polish ally.

Britain wisely remains neutral. Marxist France sympathizes with the Soviet Union but is restrained by British diplomacy as happened during the Spanish Civil War.

You know that is not going to happen. Hitler wanted more than just Danzig. He wanted all the German "lebensraum" he could get, and to extend the German borders as far as possible. He would not have settled having an independent Poland sitting between him and the Reich's new lands.

 

[wiking85]

You know that is not going to happen. Hitler wanted more than just Danzig. He wanted all the German "lebensraum" he could get, and to extend the German borders as far as possible. He would not have settled having an independent Poland sitting between him and the Reich's new lands.

Not only that, but he wanted a practice war, natural resources in Silesia and Teschen, farmland, and slave labor. All of this was critical for the next conquest or in a general European war. It was a stepping stone and war needed to come in Hitler's mind, but it had to be a localized, limited war that left Poland in Germany's control.

 

[davebender]

You know that is not going to happen. Hitler wanted more than just Danzig. He wanted all the German "lebensraum" he could get, and to extend the German borders as far as possible. He would not have settled having an independent Poland sitting between him and the Reich's new lands.

Speculation is not the same thing as facts. However if you don't like that scenerio here's another possibility.

Historical events through the end of June 1940. France had been defeated and Britain has been mauled.

Point of departure. Congress blocks FDRs plan to rearm Britain during the summer of 1940.
The RN doesn't get 50 free destroyers.
The USA doesn't replace British military garrisons in places like Bermuda, Trinidad and Iceland.
Most important of all, Britain does not receive weapons to reconstitute BEF divisions destroyed on the beaches of Dunkirk.

With the cream of the British Army destroyed and no U.S. assistance the British Government signs an armistice with Germany a few days after France. Followed by a permanent peace treaty during August 1940.
- West front borders revert to 1913.
- Germany will immediately withdraw from Denmark, Belgium and the Netherlands (1913 border).
- Most French military equipment and ammunition stockpiles will be handed over to Germany.
- Most French munitions factories such as the newly nationalized tank plant will be destroyed under German supervision.
- France may maintain a 100,000 man field army in Europe plus the Meuse Line border fortifications.
- France may keep her navy. Important to France for protection of French North Africa.
- France may maintain colonial forces at the 1938 level.
- Germany will conduct a phased withdrawal from France (1913 border) and return French POWs as demilitarization proceeds.
- Germany will withdraw from Norway. However there will be guarantees that Norway will revert to a position of neutrality rather then tilting towards Britain as happened during 1939 to 1940.

Germany is no longer at war in western Europe.
- No Battle of Britain.
- No British or German military forces in Greece.
- No German military forces in North Africa or the Med.
- If Italy, France and Britain want to fight in Africa that's their business. Not worth the bones of a single Pomeranian grenadier.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Well it is "what if" and guess that is what this thread is about, but that scenario has about the same chances as me winning the Powerball.

But it is "hypothetical"...

 

[Gixxerman]

Dave your scenario basically ends up with Hitler's gang getting all the rewards without ever paying a price.
In effect a mere continuation of the all-or-nothing bullying strategy Hitler used until it all went so wrong on Sept 1939.

France Britain were never going to go along with that, even if it meant defeat (as France found to her cost) or ruin (as Britain found to hers).

However you slice it Hitler's gang were never going to get away with it that easily......and quite rightly too.
The tragedy is the price everyone - including millions of German people - ended up having to pay in stopping those criminal lunatics when they did.

 

[davebender]

Perhaps not but something drastically different must have happened for this "Hypothetical LW confrontation" to exist.

 

[michaelmaltby]

".... The RN doesn't get 50 free destroyers."

They weren't free .... the US received long-lease bases in exchange ... Argentia and Stephenville in Newfoundland, Bermuda, etc., IIRC