Is this the lowest victory claim accuracy ever? (2 Viewers)

[CHen10]

https://web.archive.org/web/20240228052119/https://warspot.ru/10877-loto-5-iz-50-ili-eskadrilya-dlya-odnogo-asa

Overview of 15.(kroat.)/JG 52 Victory Claims

Date	Croat Pilot	Location	Type Claimed	Outcome	Details of Soviet Aircraft Lost (Pilot / Unit)
Late Oct (29–31)	Mato Dukovac	Crimea (Bagerovo area)	LaGG-3	Overclaim(Damaged)	Unnamed pilot (wounded, returned to base) / 863rd IAP
Late Oct (29–31)	Dragutin Gazapi	Crimea (Bagerovo area)	Unspecified	Overclaim	None
Late Oct (29–31)	Other Pilots (2 claims)	Crimea (Bagerovo area)	LaGG-3, Il-2	Overclaim	None
01 Nov	Mato Dukovac (Claim 1)	Eltigen beachhead	Il-2	Victory	Crew survived (unnamed) / 8th Gv.ShAP
01 Nov	Mato Dukovac (Claim 2)	Eltigen beachhead	Il-2	Victory	Crew survived, 1 gunner wounded / 47th ShAP
01 Nov	Eduard Martinko (4 claims)	Eltigen beachhead	2x Il-2, Pe-2, Airacobra	Overclaim	None
01 Nov	Dragutin Gazapi (2 claims)	Eltigen beachhead	La-5, Airacobra	Overclaim	None (La-5s were not even present)
01 Nov	Vladimir Salomon	Eltigen beachhead	Unspecified	Overclaim	None
01 Nov	Zdenko Avdić	Eltigen beachhead	Unspecified	Overclaim	None
02 Nov	Mato Dukovac	Kerch area	Il-2	Victory(Unspecified match)	Unspecified Il-2 unit
02 Nov	Eduard Martinko	Kerch area	I-153 "Chaika"	Overclaim	None (Biplanes did not fly by day)
02 Nov	Josip Kranjc	Kerch area	LaGG-3	Overclaim	None
02 Nov	Zdenko Avdić (2 claims)	Kerch area	Unspecified	Overclaim	None
06 Nov	Dragutin Gazapi	Kerch area	LaGG-3	Overclaim	None
06 Nov	Ivan Baltić	Kerch area	LaGG-3	Overclaim	None (Possible fit for 25th IAP, but heavily overclaimed)
11 Nov	Eduard Martinko	Kerch area	Pe-2	Overclaim	None (Soviet aircraft grounded due to weather)
12 Nov	Mato Dukovac	Azov Sea (near coast)	DB-3 (Il-4)	Overclaim	None (367th BAB, 30th ORAP had no operational losses)
13 Nov	Josip Kranjc (2 claims)	Kerch area	LaGG-3 / Yak-1 / Airacobra	Overclaim	None
13 Nov	Zdenko Avdić	Kerch area	LaGG-3 / Yak-1 / Airacobra	Overclaim	None (790th IAP forced landing was likely technical)
13 Nov	Eduard Martinko (2 claims)	Kerch area	LaGG-3 / Yak-1 / Airacobra	Overclaim	None
13 Nov	Dragutin Gazapi	Kerch area	LaGG-3	Overclaim	None
15 Nov	Josip Kranjc	Perekop area	Airacobra	Overclaim	None
15 Nov	Zdenko Avdić	Perekop area	Airacobra	Overclaim	None
20 Nov	Josip Kranjc & Zdenko Avdić (3 claims total)	Kerch area (Chushka Spit)	LaGG-3	Overclaim	Jr. Lt. Ya. I. Kholyavko (249th IAP) likely shot down by German aces
21 Nov	Mato Dukovac (Claim 1)	Kerch area	Airacobra	Victory	Jr. Lt. P. F. Kulagin (KIA / 57th Gv.IAP) OR Jr. Lt. F. E. Rusakov (parachuted)
21 Nov	Mato Dukovac (Claim 2) & Zdenko Avdić	Kerch area	LaGG-3 / Yak-1	Potential Victory(Contested share)	Lt. N. G. Sharonov (88th IAP) or Jr. Lt. K. G. Morozik (42nd Gv.IAP)
Late Nov / 01 Dec	Unspecified Croat Pilots (4 claims)	Northern Crimea	3x Airacobra, A-20 Boston	Victory (1 of 4 entries confirmed)	One Soviet plane confirmed shot down (names/units not detailed)
04 Dec	Mato Dukovac	Eltigen / Churbash area	LaGG-3	Victory	Jr. Lt. A. G. Tsarenko (KIA) / 249th IAP
04 Dec	Eduard Martinko	Eltigen area	LaGG-3	Overclaim(Damaged)	Lightly damaged Airacobra from 66th IAP
05 Dec	Mato Dukovac (2 claims)	Kerch area	LaGG-3, Il-2	Overclaim	None (979th IAP and 4th VA recorded zero losses)
05 Dec	Ivan Baltić	Kerch area	Il-2	Overclaim	None
06 Dec	Mato Dukovac (Claim 1)	Eltigen area	LaGG-3	Overclaim(Damaged)	Lightly damaged LaGG-3 / 805th IAP
06 Dec	Mato Dukovac (Claim 2)	Eltigen area	LaGG-3	Overclaim	None
06 Dec	Mato Dukovac (Claim 3)	Eltigen area	Airacobra	Victory	Jr. Lt. M. K. Krbashyan (Forced landing) / 66th IAP
06 Dec	Eduard Martinko	Eltigen area	Airacobra	Overclaim	None
08 Dec	Mato Dukovac	Sivash area	Airacobra	Overclaim	None (16th Gv.IAP suffered no damage/losses)

Pilot Scores & Summaries


1. Mato Dukovac

• Score: 6 Victories, 1 Potential Victory / 11 Claims
• Summary: Dukovac stands out as the squadron's only effective asset. Even with a significant margin of overclaiming, he is the sole pilot verified to have cleanly destroyed Soviet aircraft during this campaign, scoring against Il-2s, a LaGG-3, and an Airacobra, in addition to one contested multi-unit engagement.

2. Eduard Martinko

• Score: 0 Victories / 8 Claims
• Summary: Martinko achieved a rapid "paper-ace" reputation that was entirely detached from physical results. His reports were highly imaginative, logging daylight engagements with biplanes that were only flying at night, and counting a lightly damaged Airacobra as a downed LaGG-3.

3. Zdenko Avdić

• Score: 0 Victories, 1 Potential Victory / 5 Claims
• Summary: Avdić built an unverified ace status out of fabrications until his final mission on 21 November. In that final clash, his only plausible tie to a real loss was a shared, heavily contested engagement with German pilots, which ended when he was severely wounded and lost his hand.

4. Dragutin Gazapi

• Score: 0 Victories / 4 Claims
• Summary: An aggressive young pilot who reported downing aircraft that were completely absent from his sector, such as La-5 fighters. His brief, over-inflated career came to an end on 27 November when he was shot down and killed by veteran Soviet aviators.

5. Josip Kranjc

• Score: 0 Victories / 4 Claims
• Summary: Kranjc was credited on paper with multiple double-kills in mid-November. Soviet logs prove none of these matched actual losses; where real Soviet planes did go down near his claims, they were definitively claimed by neighboring veteran German aces.

6. Ivan Baltić & Vladimir Salomon

• Score: 0 Victories / 2 Claims (Baltić) ; 0 Victories / 1 Claim (Salomon)
• Summary: Inexperienced rookies whose claims did not result in enemy losses. Salomon was shot down early on 7 November and froze to death in the Azov Sea. Baltić continued to log entries against heavily armored Soviet strike aircraft but failed to achieve verified destructions.

Not only that but they suffered badly too


Overview of 15.(kroat.)/JG 52 Combat Losses

Date	Croat Pilot	Location	Type Flown	Outcome	Details of Soviet Aircraft Responsible (Pilot / Unit)
02 Nov	Mato Dukovac	10km from Mariental (Gornostaevka)	Bf 109G-4 (W.Nr. 14975)	Shot Down (Forced belly landing, 80% damage, aircraft written off)	Airacobra — Either Lt. P. A. Krasnov or Jr. Lt. G. P. Kolontaenko / 11th Gv.IAP VVS ChF
02 Nov	Dragutin Gazapi	Kerch sector	Bf 109G-6 (W.Nr. 19543)	Damaged in Action (Radiator pierced, 20% damage, safely landed and repaired)	Airacobra — Either Lt. P. A. Krasnov or Jr. Lt. G. P. Kolontaenko / 11th Gv.IAP VVS ChF
07 Nov	Vladimir Salomon	Baksy – Mayak area (Azov Sea)	Bf 109G-6 (W.Nr. 20039)	Shot Down / KIA (Bailed out into the freezing sea, froze to death before rescue)	Yak-1 — Highly likely Jr. Lt. N. F. Raenko / 42nd Gv.IAP
21 Nov	Zdenko Avdić	South of Kerch	Bf 109G-6 "White 13" (W.Nr. 18497)	Shot Down / WIA (Shell exploded in cockpit, arm amputated, survived but career ended)	LaGG-3 — Sr. Lt. A. T. Kankoshev, Gv. Jr. Lt. N. F. Raenko (both 42nd Gv.IAP), or Lt. N. S. Shakhin (88th IAP) / 229th IAD
27 Nov	Dragutin Gazapi	Northern Crimea	Unspecified Messerschmitt	Shot Down / KIA (Aircraft completely destroyed, pilot killed)	Airacobra — Unnamed pilot / 16th Gv.IAP
28 Nov	Vladimir Nahod	Northern Crimea	Unspecified Messerschmitt	Shot Down (Aircraft damaged, forced emergency landing on own territory)	Airacobra — Unnamed pilot / 16th Gv.IAP

Additional Loss Insights

• Technological Strain: Beyond these direct aerial combat losses, the squadron suffered from poor maintenance levels. On average, only one-third of their Messerschmitt aircraft were functional at any given moment due to technical wear and pilot accidents (such as Zvonimir Rajterić, who completely totaled his plane on a regular take-off roll on 29 October).
• Severe Attrition: The article tracks that by February 1944, the relentless pressure from Soviet Airacobra and Yak regiments caused nine total Croatian pilots to be killed or severely wounded(including leader Mato Dukovac himself, who was shot down and sent to a hospital on 28 February), completely shattering the unit's combat efficiency before they were pulled from the front lines.

Is this the lowest victory accuracy ever?

(Information comes from the link provided at the top. AI was only used to make the tables look neat and proper with all the information itself coming from the article)

 

[bada]

Hate those Victory claims topics, unless there is a specific deinition of victory, it's just ramblings trying to descredit the other "party".
Anyway I'm sure i can find a good contenter for this...

Let's see the Raf FighterCommand numbers on offensive operations in 41. (RAF NUMBERS, from official docs, not something calculated by myself)

Period	E/A claimed by F.C as destroyed	FC Pilots lost	German Fighters actually destroyed
20/12/1940->31/12/1941	775	462	193

 

[FulmenTheFinn]

unless there is a specific deinition of victory, it's just ramblings trying to descredit the other "party".

It's quite simple really: a victory is what it was assumed to be: the successful destruction of an aircraft (destruction being a write-off). If no destruction happened, no victory occurred. Any other definition of a victory is, to be blunt, anachronistic goal-post-moving, and muddies the waters.

It's important to understand that overclaiming was a natural feature of air combat of the era, and the overwhelming majority of it happened because people genuinely believed they'd scored a victory. It's got little to do with genuine dishonesty.

Let's see the Raf FighterCommand numbers on offensive operations in 41. (RAF NUMBERS, from official docs, not something calculated by myself)

Period	E/A claimed by F.C as destroyed	FC Pilots lost	German Fighters actually destroyed
20/12/1940->31/12/1941	775	462	193

Interesting. According to John J. Vasco's & Peter D. Cornwell's 1995 Zerstörer: The Messerschmitt 110 and its Units in 1940 between 14 June 1941 and 31 December 1941 the RAF claimed 731 German fighters shot down over the English Channel and the continent, with the actual number being 103. Note that the date range there is shorter than the one you cited by about 6 months.

 

[bada]

It's quite simple really: a victory is what it was assumed to be: the successful destruction of an aircraft (destruction being a write-off). If no destruction happened, no victory occurred. Any other definition of a victory is, to be blunt, anachronistic goal-post-moving, and muddies the waters.

It's important to understand that overclaiming was a natural feature of air combat of the era, and the overwhelming majority of it happened because people genuinely believed they'd scored a victory. It's got little to do with genuine dishonesty.

Well, the definition of victory is maybe something we do not agree on.
An airplane diving in flames is considered a victory? if it crashed and can be confirmed by ami-forces, yes, if the fire went out in the dive and the pilot limped home? is this then a victory or not? from the Pilot's view that put the airplane on fire, it is. From yours it's not. IF we apply the factor of airframe destruction as the mandatory point, then ALL the victory lists , from all sides in WWII are totally wrong, exagerated, total fantasies. If we apply the rule that putting an airplane out of the combat with serious visible damages is a victory, then we'll come closer to the numbers present in history...and i say closer but still far from the real numbers.
At least we agree that overclaim was a natural fact then, it was even a daily occurrence, on all fronts. The air combat is a total chaotic situation, situations need to be judged in milliseconds. Humans being humans, errors happen more than not, especially under adrenaline and stress.

The numbers i posted are (like mentioned) ONLY for the Fighter Command offensive operations, not Home defense/channel patrols. That's the reason the numbers are less than the ones mostly mentioned i the books. It's linked to specific operations only.

 

[CHen10]

if the fire went out in the dive and the pilot limped home? is this then a victory or not? from the Pilot's view that put the airplane on fire, it is. From yours it's not.

No it's not a victory.

(Update: Dukovac should be listed with 6 verified victories not 5)

 

[CHen10]

The Final, Fully Corrected Pilot Profiles
1. Mato Dukovac

• Score: 6 Victories, 1 Potential Victory / 11 Claims
• Summary: Dukovac stands out as the squadron's only effective asset. Even with a significant margin of overclaiming, he is the sole pilot verified to have cleanly destroyed Soviet aircraft during this campaign. His confirmed tally includes three Il-2 ground-attack aircraft, two Airacobra fighters, and one LaGG-3, alongside one contested shared victory.

2. Eduard Martinko

• Score: 0 Victories / 10 Claims
• Summary: Martinko achieved a rapid "paper-ace" reputation that was entirely detached from physical results. His reports were highly imaginative, logging daylight engagements with biplanes that were only flying at night, and counting a lightly damaged Airacobra as a downed LaGG-3.

3. Zdenko Avdić

• Score: 0 Victories, 1 Potential Victory / 7 Claims
• Summary: Avdić built an unverified ace status out of fabrications until his final mission on 21 November. Across his 7 career claims, his only plausible tie to a real loss was a shared, heavily contested engagement with German pilots, which ended when he was severely wounded and lost his hand.

4. Dragutin Gazapi

• Score: 0 Victories / 5 Claims
• Summary: An aggressive young pilot who reported downing aircraft that were completely absent from his sector, such as La-5 fighters. His brief, over-inflated career came to an end on 27 November when he was shot down and killed by veteran Soviet aviators.

5. Josip Kranjc

• Score: 0 Victories / 5 Claims
• Summary: Kranjc was credited on paper with multiple multi-kill days in mid-November. Soviet logs prove none of these matched actual losses; where real Soviet planes did go down near his claims, they were definitively claimed by neighboring veteran German aces.

6. Ivan Baltić & Vladimir Salomon

• Score: 0 Victories / 2 Claims (Baltić) ; 0 Victories / 1 Claim (Salomon)
• Summary: Inexperienced rookies whose claims did not result in enemy losses. Salomon was shot down early on 7 November and froze to death in the Azov Sea. Baltić continued to log entries against heavily armored Soviet strike aircraft but failed to achieve verified destructions.

 

[FulmenTheFinn]

Is this the lowest victory claim accuracy ever?

In the Winter War (30 November 1939–13 March 1940) the VVS made at least 438 claims, but this is not including bomber claims through bombing (ac destroyed on the ground) nor potential PVO claims, which, basing on the amount of Soviet air-to-air friendly fire incidents near their home bases, there probably were some. It's also not including VVS VMF claims outside the KBF, though there may have been none.

In reality the VVS destroyed 41 Finnish aircraft in that war: 39 in aerial combat and 2 on the ground. One of those was destroyed on the ground by bombers, and since we're only looking at VVS fighter pilot and bomber gunner claims as we don't have data on VVS bomber claims from bombing, we have to exclude it, leaving us with 40 aircraft. That being said both 40 and 41 out of 438 is about 9%. In other words less than 1 out of 10 of those 438 Soviet claims is accurate. And that's just the claims we know about.

 

[CHen10]

In the Winter War (30 November 1939–13 March 1940) the VVS made at least 438 claims, but this is not including bomber claims through bombing (ac destroyed on the ground) nor potential PVO claims, which, basing on the amount of Soviet air-to-air friendly fire incidents near their home bases, there probably were some. It's also not including VVS VMF claims outside the KBF, though there may have been none.

In reality the VVS destroyed 41 Finnish aircraft in that war: 39 in aerial combat and 2 on the ground. One of those was destroyed on the ground by bombers, and since we're only looking at VVS fighter pilot and bomber gunner claims as we don't have data on VVS bomber claims from bombing, we have to exclude it, leaving us with 40 aircraft. That being said both 40 and 41 out of 438 is about 9%. In other words less than 1 out of 10 of those 438 Soviet claims is accurate. And that's just the claims we know about.

very interesting. I wonder if we know the claims of the individual Soviet pilots to see their claim accuracy. I wondered if these Croat claims were the lowest because we have several pilots with 0% accuracy. Martinko, Gazapi, and Kranjc had 0% which is mind bogglingly bad. I wonder if any Soviet pilots in the winter war had 0% accuracy as well.

 

[FulmenTheFinn]

I wonder if we know the claims of the individual Soviet pilots to see their claim accuracy.

We know most of them. Below is a list of VVS RKKA claims from the appendix file to Carl-Fredrik Geust's 2019 Red Wings in the Winter War 1939-1940. A lot of the claims appear to be shared between multiple airmen. There's a total of 373 claims in this list. One could use the data to create an analysis similar to yours of the claims of e.g. 7 IAP pilots.

Checking now from Geust's 2004 Red Stars 5: Baltic Fleet Air Force in Winter War [sic], there's a quote from a VVS VMF report dated 10 April 1940 saying the VVS VMF destroyed in aerial combat and on Finnish airfields 65 Finnish aircraft, bringing the total of both claims combined to the aforementioned 438. Sadly there is no pilot-specific list of these VMF claims. The way it's worded makes me think these 65 claims include claims made by all VVS VMF forces, not just the KBF, and includes bomber ground kill claims. The ground kill claims of at least VVS RKKA bombers however remain a mystery to me, as well as those of AON (later became the ADD) bombers.

 

[CHen10]

Yeah 7 IAP in March 1940 looks incredibly similar to 15./JG 52 in October to December 1943. The cause for the Croat pilot's inaccuracy was that in this combat tour of late 1943 to early 1944, there were so many new rookies that Dukovac was essentially just carrying the entire group. The earlier combat tours by 15./JG 52 were a lot better due to better pilots overall.

Is it possible the 7 IAP was also very inexperienced during March 1940?

 

[FulmenTheFinn]

Is it possible the 7 IAP was also very inexperienced during March 1940?

7 IAP was the main Soviet fighter regiment in the Winter War. It was equipped with I-16, I-16P, I-153 and I-15bis fighters, flew 4,885 sorties 30.11.39-13.3.40 for a total of 5,033 hours, claimed 68 aerial victories (43 fighters, 21 bombers and 4 reconnaissance aircraft) and additionally 14 aircraft on the ground*. Six of its pilots, including the regiment commander, were appointed Heroes of the Soviet Union (HSU) on 21 March 1940. On 11 April 1940 7 IAP itself was awarded the Order of the Red Banner. One of its squadron commanders had experience from the Spanish Civil War. 14 of the regiment's pilots were rated for night fighter missions as per a list dated 26 January 1940. On 23 February and 3 March 1940 the regiment had 84 and 69 fighter pilots respectively.

My impression is that as a whole the unit was one of the more experienced VVS fighter units in the Winter War.

Perhaps bf109xxl has more information.

*Not sure if I've included these 14 ground kills in my previous calculations. Need to go over the list and count them again.

 

[Gilder]

I am sure that we could all find examples of overclaiming from any airforce, in any war.