A
Anonymous
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Within a decade China is going to invade Taiwan. This is just a prelude to that - they must have poor relations with Japan to undertake such an action.
Moral objections on warfare.
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trackend said:
This I agree with.
RG_Lunatic said:
This is also what I believe. My wife today asked me what I think is going to happen and I actually told her within the next 5 years we would be at war defending Taiwan because we have sworn to do so. A war with China will be UGLY!
A
Anonymous
Guest
I suspect it will be longer than that, but maybe not.
We will know it is comming when China pulls the rug out from under the US economy by withdrawing its investment. This will happen at least a year before they invade Taiwan.
We will know it is comming when China pulls the rug out from under the US economy by withdrawing its investment. This will happen at least a year before they invade Taiwan.
trackend
Chief Master Sergeant
I hope you and RG are wrong Adler. I just wonder if the Chinese feel they have more to loose than to gain by invading Taiwan and a lot of what is going on at the moment is sabre rattling, After all at the moment their economy is the fastest growing one in the world Hong Kong has been a real money spinner for China the same won't be true if they use force on Taiwan
FLYBOYJ
"THE GREAT GAZOO"
And I hope you're right Track, but an interesting note:
although we know their capabilities, China has not fought a major conflict in many years. Shortly after the fall of South Viet Nam, China and now united Vietnam had a pretty nasty border clash where the Vietnamese utliized a mix of Soviet and US equipment, if I remember correctly, the Chinese had their butts handed to them!
although we know their capabilities, China has not fought a major conflict in many years. Shortly after the fall of South Viet Nam, China and now united Vietnam had a pretty nasty border clash where the Vietnamese utliized a mix of Soviet and US equipment, if I remember correctly, the Chinese had their butts handed to them!
A
Anonymous
Guest
China considers Taiwan a rouge province that they have a right to reclaim. They have stated their intention to do so many times.
As for the growth of the Chineese economy through exploitation of Western markets, that is going to change very soon. Perpetual motion is just as impossible in economics as it is in physics. The Chineese cannot continue to loan the USA money so that we can buy their products forever.
=S=
Lunatic
As for the growth of the Chineese economy through exploitation of Western markets, that is going to change very soon. Perpetual motion is just as impossible in economics as it is in physics. The Chineese cannot continue to loan the USA money so that we can buy their products forever.
=S=
Lunatic
trackend
Chief Master Sergeant
Thing is RG its the world their selling their labour too and building a manufacturing base on the proceeds everything from lawnmowers too Japanese cameras are being assembled in China and big business is investing heavly in China. Hong Kong is part of China and that on its own has Reserves of about $118 billion which aint bad for such a small place.
As you say however some things could cause economic instability problems, with an industrial growth rate of I think around 30% but imports of fuel running at over a million barrels a day greater than the exports it may eventually force a down turn and the bubble could as you say burst which as we know often means carrying out populist acts to divert attention away from the home grown problems. EG Galtieri and the Falklands.
Both yourself and Adler may be right but as I say I really do hope you're both wrong only time will tell.
As you say however some things could cause economic instability problems, with an industrial growth rate of I think around 30% but imports of fuel running at over a million barrels a day greater than the exports it may eventually force a down turn and the bubble could as you say burst which as we know often means carrying out populist acts to divert attention away from the home grown problems. EG Galtieri and the Falklands.
Both yourself and Adler may be right but as I say I really do hope you're both wrong only time will tell.
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- #348
Well!
I am aware and educated about Japanese culture through my Japanese friends and the conditions that were in place Before and during the entire Pacific War.
I respect all of you and your opinion on the subject. I am well aware off the horrendous and unprecedented atrocities that the Japanese committed during the whole era from 1931 to 1945.
I am with you all the way on this matter, it is only the final moments of the Pacific War that I and many with me is convinced that the A-bomb was an unnecessary act.
The Secret reason behind this was to test the two A-bombs on some some convenient City's and as the public racial opinion that was in place since 7 Dec 1941 and well before, it was an easy decision to make. The two bombs were of course of different kinds and the test would evaluate the results.
The many objections to the bombings from many wise people who knew the true state of the matters, was bulldozed and even the Manhattan Project was against it.
If one knows what the Americans thought before the war about the Japanese that they could not be good pilots !!!
The belief was because of racial myths, of course. It is therefore easy to understand the decision to bomb an inferior race. Please bear in mind that the American public really did not know to much about Asia in those days.
The atrocity's committed by the Japanese is inexcusable and can not be overlooked and I have during my travels around Oceania found many evidence of it and on the Internet when it became available, which many of you like to check I understand (not the best way for sure, but so be it)
For example: In Manila the Japanese soldiers went on a bloody rampage just before the US liberated the city and I have spoke to a few witnesses to that.
The Cemetery in Manila for the 17 206 American soldiers that made the ultimate sacrifice is worth to see for the one that is interested.
The pictures I took at Corregidor May 1982 shows the remains of the tough fighting that occurred during the 27 days of fighting and I am sorry that I can´t show any pics of the killings of civilians in Manila that the Japanese Army did.
Battery Geary was hit in the center magazine and it eighth 12-inch mortars was totally destroyed on 2 May 1942.
Battery Way and Geary was completed in 1913 and they had 12-inch mortars (Way had four) that were capable of firing up to 14 610 yards in any direction at the rate of one round per minute per mortar.
In building the railway Siam-Burma (best know in the movie "The Bridge over the River Kwai") there was so many atrocities made that is hard to apprehend.
The next pics are from Kanchanaburi museum with memories from the Burma-Siam railway were during construction more than 16 000 POWs died, about 38 POWs died for every kilometer railway built.
The pic of Ply/X2518 Marine R Varty. RM was taken at Kanchanaburi Cemetery and he was on board H.M.S. "Prince of Wales" when she was sank together with H.M.S "Repulse" by Japanese torpedo aircraft's on 10 Dec 1941. Prince of Wales was hit by 5 torpedoes and sank with 327 hands including Admiral Phillips, of the crew about 1 285 men was saved and Varty was one of them. He and the others was brought to Singapore and when Singapore surrendered on 15 Feb 1942, he became a POW. Varty comes to The River Kwai and builds the Siam-Burma Railway and dies on 8 Aug 1943 at 23 years of age. May he rest in Peace and I prayed for him on my knees and to all victims of the second World War.
War Is Hell But Do Not Make It Worse Than It Has To Be!! (Is Valid On Both Sides)
Cheers
GT
I am aware and educated about Japanese culture through my Japanese friends and the conditions that were in place Before and during the entire Pacific War.
I respect all of you and your opinion on the subject. I am well aware off the horrendous and unprecedented atrocities that the Japanese committed during the whole era from 1931 to 1945.
I am with you all the way on this matter, it is only the final moments of the Pacific War that I and many with me is convinced that the A-bomb was an unnecessary act.
The Secret reason behind this was to test the two A-bombs on some some convenient City's and as the public racial opinion that was in place since 7 Dec 1941 and well before, it was an easy decision to make. The two bombs were of course of different kinds and the test would evaluate the results.
The many objections to the bombings from many wise people who knew the true state of the matters, was bulldozed and even the Manhattan Project was against it.
If one knows what the Americans thought before the war about the Japanese that they could not be good pilots !!!
The belief was because of racial myths, of course. It is therefore easy to understand the decision to bomb an inferior race. Please bear in mind that the American public really did not know to much about Asia in those days.
The atrocity's committed by the Japanese is inexcusable and can not be overlooked and I have during my travels around Oceania found many evidence of it and on the Internet when it became available, which many of you like to check I understand (not the best way for sure, but so be it)
For example: In Manila the Japanese soldiers went on a bloody rampage just before the US liberated the city and I have spoke to a few witnesses to that.
The Cemetery in Manila for the 17 206 American soldiers that made the ultimate sacrifice is worth to see for the one that is interested.
The pictures I took at Corregidor May 1982 shows the remains of the tough fighting that occurred during the 27 days of fighting and I am sorry that I can´t show any pics of the killings of civilians in Manila that the Japanese Army did.
Battery Geary was hit in the center magazine and it eighth 12-inch mortars was totally destroyed on 2 May 1942.
Battery Way and Geary was completed in 1913 and they had 12-inch mortars (Way had four) that were capable of firing up to 14 610 yards in any direction at the rate of one round per minute per mortar.
In building the railway Siam-Burma (best know in the movie "The Bridge over the River Kwai") there was so many atrocities made that is hard to apprehend.
The next pics are from Kanchanaburi museum with memories from the Burma-Siam railway were during construction more than 16 000 POWs died, about 38 POWs died for every kilometer railway built.
The pic of Ply/X2518 Marine R Varty. RM was taken at Kanchanaburi Cemetery and he was on board H.M.S. "Prince of Wales" when she was sank together with H.M.S "Repulse" by Japanese torpedo aircraft's on 10 Dec 1941. Prince of Wales was hit by 5 torpedoes and sank with 327 hands including Admiral Phillips, of the crew about 1 285 men was saved and Varty was one of them. He and the others was brought to Singapore and when Singapore surrendered on 15 Feb 1942, he became a POW. Varty comes to The River Kwai and builds the Siam-Burma Railway and dies on 8 Aug 1943 at 23 years of age. May he rest in Peace and I prayed for him on my knees and to all victims of the second World War.
War Is Hell But Do Not Make It Worse Than It Has To Be!! (Is Valid On Both Sides)
Cheers
GT
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FLYBOYJ
"THE GREAT GAZOO"
READ SURVIVING THE DAY
This was written by my wife's grandfather:
Frank Grady's memoir was authored by Rebecca Dickson after more than thirty interviews over the course of six months. Attached to MacArthur's headquarters in 1941, he moved from Manila to Corregidor with the General's staff as the Japanese marched across the Philippines. When General Wainwright ordered surrender of Corregidor, Grady marched from Malinta Tunnel into captivity. His status as cryptograhic officer betrayed by another POW, he was singled out for special interrogation by the Japanese and eventually shipped to Japan. There he survived brutal conditions, harsh weather, and deadly Allied bombing attacks. After the war he returned to Japan to testify in the war crimes trials. Colonel Grady died in 1991 before his memoir's publication.
This was written by my wife's grandfather:
Frank Grady's memoir was authored by Rebecca Dickson after more than thirty interviews over the course of six months. Attached to MacArthur's headquarters in 1941, he moved from Manila to Corregidor with the General's staff as the Japanese marched across the Philippines. When General Wainwright ordered surrender of Corregidor, Grady marched from Malinta Tunnel into captivity. His status as cryptograhic officer betrayed by another POW, he was singled out for special interrogation by the Japanese and eventually shipped to Japan. There he survived brutal conditions, harsh weather, and deadly Allied bombing attacks. After the war he returned to Japan to testify in the war crimes trials. Colonel Grady died in 1991 before his memoir's publication.
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- #350
trackend
Chief Master Sergeant
I understand and respect your reasoning GT but I am still convinced that the bombs saved more than they killed if they did not drop the bomb then two scenarios are left. One an all out sea borne invasion and I know of no body who does not believe (and this includes Truman's advisors at the time) that the total civilian and military death toll would have been in the millions or. Two leave them to stew this would have resulted in millions of civilian deaths as the leaders would have been quite prepared to let the population starve to maintain their forces viability.
The Japanese may say they intended to pack in to put themselves in a better light but they had no intention of surrender. In a Supreme Council meeting on 9th August 1945 after Tojo resigned only three ministers favoured surrender Shigenori Togo the reinstated foreign minister being one.
This may have been due to the reluctance of the allies to allow anything but unconditional surrender thus the Japanese believed the emperor's dynasty would end.
However I believe it to be a false hood Hirohito was only ever a figure head used by Tojo and later after he resigned his followers to help control the show. Okinawa gave the world a small insight into the mind set of the Japanese population military at the time. Multiple it ten thousand fold for mainland Japan.
Wasn't it only in the 70's on a small island somewhere that they managed to make the last soldier give up and only then after his old commanding officer had spoken to him personally.
I am yet to be convinced that any action was available at the time to end the war as quickly and with minimal losses.
I shall read others views with interest
The Japanese may say they intended to pack in to put themselves in a better light but they had no intention of surrender. In a Supreme Council meeting on 9th August 1945 after Tojo resigned only three ministers favoured surrender Shigenori Togo the reinstated foreign minister being one.
This may have been due to the reluctance of the allies to allow anything but unconditional surrender thus the Japanese believed the emperor's dynasty would end.
However I believe it to be a false hood Hirohito was only ever a figure head used by Tojo and later after he resigned his followers to help control the show. Okinawa gave the world a small insight into the mind set of the Japanese population military at the time. Multiple it ten thousand fold for mainland Japan.
Wasn't it only in the 70's on a small island somewhere that they managed to make the last soldier give up and only then after his old commanding officer had spoken to him personally.
I am yet to be convinced that any action was available at the time to end the war as quickly and with minimal losses.
I shall read others views with interest
mosquitoman
Master Sergeant
They could have shwon the Japanese it's effect on an uninhabited area of Japan and said, if you don't surrender this'll be your cities. Would that have worked?
trackend
Chief Master Sergeant
I saw on the box last week Mossie that Truman thought that if they did that the Japanese would retaliate by butchering POWS as a show of defiance and that a terrible shock like Hiroshima would stand more chance of instant surrender
FLYBOYJ said:And I hope you're right Track, but an interesting note:
although we know their capabilities, China has not fought a major conflict in many years. Shortly after the fall of South Viet Nam, China and now united Vietnam had a pretty nasty border clash where the Vietnamese utliized a mix of Soviet and US equipment, if I remember correctly, the Chinese had their butts handed to them!
The problem with fighting a war with Japan is the fact that there are so many of them. I think the main thing thing they would have against them besides the fact that our technology is greater is the fact that I think there oil reserves would not allow them to withstand all out war for a long eneough time to hold us off especially after we bombed them back into the stone age first.
Chinese armed forces: People's Liberation Army (PLA), founded in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province on August 1st, 1927.
General Introduction of PLA and National Defence
Central Military Commission
PLA Daily
Chairman of Central Military Commission: Jiang Zemin
Ministry of Defense
Total Army Members 2.5 million (Source: TIME Feb. 1, 1999)
Budget of National Defense in 2000: 120.5 billion yuan RMB (about 14.5 billion US$) a 12.7% increase over the year of 1999) (Source: NPC news release, Mar. 2000)
General Information about PLA (www.china-military.org)
Budget of National Defense (Unit: billion yuan RMB/billion yuan US$, and the exchange rate between USD and RMB is about 1 :8.3)
Air Force (470,000 airmen; 2,556 jet fighters; 400 ground attack jets.)
Commander: QIAO Qingchen
Ground Force (Army) (1.9 million men; 14,000 tanks; 14,500 artillery pieces 453 helicopters)
Navy (250,000 sailors; 63 submarines; 18 destroyers; 35 frigates)
Commander: General ZHANG Dingfa
With numbers like these it would be an ugly war.
the lancaster kicks ass
Major General
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mosquitoman said:
that might have been a bit of a waste, they were expensive weapons and they didn't many, and they couldn't be sure the japs would go for it.........
I dont think the Japs would have. They are very proud and stubborn people.
A
Anonymous
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mosquitoman said:
The schedule of A-bomb availablility really didn't allow for that. There were the two available in early August, there would be one more in late August or early September, another in early to mid October, another in late October, and another in late November or early December. After that, it was going to be something like May 1946 before the next one was ready. I believe these were two uranium bombs and 4 plutonium bombs by the end of 1945. It was not 100% clear that the plutonium bomb would actually work, it was not tested first.
Given the limited availability, the A-bomb attack was somewhat of a bluff, both to the Japanese and to the Soviets. Dropping two bombs in quick succession was necessary to convince the Japanese that we could and would destroy their cities at will so they would capitulate quickly - as they did.
GT - the scientists of the Manhatten project were not privy to all the issues involved in the decision to drop the bombs, so their opinions are of limited importance.
But, lets suppose the decision had been made not to use the A-bomb. In that case, both Hiroshima and Nagasaki would have immeadiatly moved to the top of the saturation bombing list. In both cities more people would have died as a result.
Interesting you have no comment about the effect of typhoon Louise on the situation had the Japanes not yet surrendered. When you factor that in, it is very very unlikelyt the Japanese would have surrendered before Spring 1946. Also it is interesting and disappointing that you refuse to respond to how the Soviets would have been dealt with or the consequences to Japan of a Soviet occupation.
=S=
Lunatic
A
Anonymous
Guest
DerAdlerIstGelandet said:
Which is why I think such a move will come in the 7-10 year range rather than sooner as you've suggested. This will give China time to close the tech gap, and also allow a couple of years of world wide depression to weaken the West.
But even with the tech gap they would still have a very large ground force that could drag a war out. Right now is the perfect time for them to attack. We are bogged up in other parts of the world...Iraq, Afganistan, Kosovo, East Africa, Cuba....etc. Right now it would be hard for us to sustain a force large eneogh to do anything.
I must make a correction. I said Japan up there in my post I meant China. As if we had to fight a war with China. I apologize.
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