Mustang crashes into crowd at Reno

[FLYBOYJ]

I'm glad you got that off your chest and you do have some good info there.

The AP photo I seen looks different from the others posted here. I maintain that the AP photo was tampered with, but that's my opinion....

Be on your way, personally I have no beef with you and if you are who you say you are, I do hope you help find out what happened.

 

[drgondog]

This will be my second post on this site, and the last.
Thank you Mr O'Brien for your post validating that you had not manipulated the photograph as accused by so blatantly by many.
Any person with any basic knowledge would have known that if it was "Photoshopped" the Authorities would have discredited its authenticity and that digital camera's also have a forensic fingerprint that can trace a photo's history. If the persons doing the analysis of the photo had only looked they would have known it was not a converted ground photo.
A) The Propeller is running at a Constant Speed setting, (the blades look thicker) If the engine was stopped as on the ground the blades would be set at a High RPM setting, (the blades will look thinner)Also the blades look stopped because the photographer was using a very high shutter speed.
B) The evaporation cooler outlet, the steam is trailing the length of the empennage, if it was on the ground,(with propeller stopped)it wouldn't be working, period.
The wobble in the video, passing through wake turbulence, it is constant in racing and when flying close to other aircraft.
The Oil Canning, due to the stresses on the empannage from two factors, torque and changing the aircraft line of flight through its Longitudinal Axis.The tail structure is doing its job trying to keep the aircarft flying straight and level, however the person flying the aircarft is wanting the aircraft to change direction, so the airframe flexes, as designed and for a micro second we see oil canning.
The sudden pitch up. As JimH has correctly posted, when flying a high speed aircraft to counter the aerodynamic tendency for the aircraft to climb (Speed increases lift) the pilot must put in nose down trim, in air racing this is rather large. When the trim tab began to fail this nose down trim was rapidly lost and the opposite results, a rapid climb. In this case to an extent that it placed a 22.6g loading on the aircraft.Mr Leeward was instantly unconscious, no human can withstand such a G load.
The seat breaking, rubbish, the cockpit had a rear bulkhead that extended from the top of the canopy to the cockpit floor, the upper section canted rearward. Mr Leeward, those who knew the gentleman, knew he was of average build and had a flying posture of leaving forward, with the G load, his body will have travelled in the direction of least resistance, forward. In the photo of the aircarft overhead, you can clearly see the back of his helmet near the glearshield.
The change in engine sound. The Merlin is a carburetted engine, under the G loading, fuel flow to the carburettor would have been slowed until the pumps could maintain flow, the engine sputtered for a few seconds, then regained full power. This probably also induced the roll at the top of the climb.

This is the only area of disagreement I have with this post. My impression is that total loss of the lefy trim tab would have introduced two forces, one loss of enough nose down trim to cause a potentially deadly climb and resultant G's, and two it could have intorduced a rolling moment - easily corrected if pilot conscoius - but leading to speculation there- I suspect Jimmy was dead or unconscious due the the high G climb and in no position to control the aircraft.

As for Qualifications, I know there are experts here that will question this. I Graduated Auckland University in NZ with an Aeronautical Engineering Degree, a Masters and PhD in Aeronautical Engineering from MIT and University of California. I have an A&P with Inspection Authorisation and also a FAA AME. I hold Pilots licence's from several Countries including the USA, which I hold ATPL and FAA Examiner ratings. I have been involved at air racing for over 25 years although many do not know me, I am mostly in the background doing engineering, but have worked most in the era of Jimmy Leeward, Hoot Gibson, Steve Hinton Sr, Tiger.... the list goes on.I have also worked with CF, back in the 80's with Nate Mayo.Also checked out Rob C for the T6, TBM. I am an advisor to the FAA, NSTB, the US Military. I live part time in NZ, part time in USA.
Again, this will be final post, good luck, and thank the Moderators for letting me use your photo for my Avatar, I am honoured that you let me use it. , I have not had such a good laugh in a long time, this last week has been extremely hilarious, over such a tragic event. I will now go and attend to my duty at NTSB at trying to further solve this case.
Good bye.

Good Post

 

[GregP]

It was a pretty good post.

But ... I think a P-51 will shed its wings or horizontal tail before sustaining 22.5 g's. Just my opinion. I'd believe 10 - 12 g's, certainly more than 8, but not 22.5 without many small parts fluttering down immediately thereafter. An F-22 Raptor would likely shed its wings before 22.5 g's, and it is much stronger than a P-51.

The P-51 was designed to sustain 8 g at 8,000 pounds, and not much more. To find the g-level at higher weight, you divide 64,000 by the weight in pounds. So a 10,000 pound Mustang is a 6.4 g airplane. I realize the wings were clipped, but I seriously doubt that triples the g-capability of the airframe.

 

[barney]

What are the chances that a G-meter placed in an 8 G airplane would ever be calibrated to 22.5 G's?

 

[GregP]

Zero ... but it's not important, either. The Ghost pulled up VERY sharply, and they can probably calculate it from a motion analysis, given time.

P-51's lost wings in WWII at much less than 22.5 g's, but I will end my own speculation until we hear officially.

 

[drgondog]

I missed the 22.5 G point - doubt that the 51 could do more than 12 (as light as that bird was it was probably back to 8000 pound GW) that even with an instantaneous 'point' G load. I suspect he may have meant 12.5 G

 

[GregP]

I'd believe 12.5 g ...

I also saw somone else somewhere in a news blog say the telemetry said 9 - 11 g, but that was in the news and should be taken with a grain of salt.

Most news services know that an airplane flies and that's about the extent of it. Well, they could probably get the main color of the aircraft right, too.

 

[jimh]

Here's another video that shows the true violence of the pitch out...its around the 3:15 mark.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbkxKJCM4x8

 

[FLYBOYJ]

Here's another video that shows the true violence of the pitch out...its around the 3:15 mark.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbkxKJCM4x8

Thanks for posting that jim!!! "Trim Tab?"

 

[barney]

After watching this video a few times I am almost ready to believe 22.5 G's. I understand the craft was recently rebuilt. It would be interesting to know what went into her.

Judging from the distant landmarks, I notice the position over land at where she is almost vertical (at this point the camera moves and the aircraft is no longer visible) and where she hits the ground is almost the same. Is there any video of what happened at the top of the excursion? Was it a stall?

 

[Ratsel]

"Trim Tab?"

Doubt it very much. Something happened to the Pilot beforehand in my humble opinion. Possibly pulling to much G during the turn.

 

[FLYBOYJ]

Doubt it very much. Something happened to the Pilot beforehand in my humble opinion. Possibly pulling to much G during the turn.

Hi torque, or high trust aircraft with an aft CG (which I beleive most if not all of the unlimiteds have) have a tendency to pitch up at high speeds. There was mention of the tail and wing incidence being changed. At higher airspeeds you're using a lot of trim to keep the nose down. I worked with a warbird owner who had a trim problem at high speed. The aircraft pitched up violently.

On that course the maximum G you're going to experience is 6 so I was told, most of the time the course is run 3.5 - 4Gs.

I don't know if this was the most current course chart, but this came directly from RARA. From all the clips shown so far it doesn't seem he was pulling anything excessive, IMO.

 

[drgondog]

The loss of the trim tab at that speed is as likelyto have caused the violent pitch up as anything if he was applying nose down trim (as he probably was at that speed) .. IIRC they were in a straight run but I could be wrong. And he most definitely lost left elevator trim tab completely.

 

[bobbysocks]

i had a hard time with 22.5 Gs but with the tone of the thread and the direction it was going, i wasnt wanting to add fuel to a fire. at that rate of G's, i'm with gregp, and would have to believe that the wings would have folded at the beginning of the climb and the plane would have projected forward instead of skyward. that may have resulted in more tragedy. at that altitude and at those speeds you cant afford to black out for a second. i am assuming they are wearing G-suits???!!! if so what are they rated to??

 

[Ratsel]

"And he most definitely lost left elevator trim tab completely."

looks like it came off near the apex of the loop after she rolled onto her back. Unless another pic shows otherwise. My theory is the pilot became incapacitated during the exit of the turn. I'll make it clear I'm no aviation expert though..

also, isn't there two trim tabs? Would it still pitch up that fast if one failed? One last question, would the incidents on the Horz.stabs have been changed if these planes flew tail heavy? thanks.

 

[bobbysocks]

it doesnt have to come off to fail...just break loose of its control linkage. a break in the linkage and the trim setting suddenly is lost...it then is fluttering and could have broken later.

 

[drgondog]

Bobbysocks - the photos are clear that the trim tab departed completely.

To other speculation regarding beefing up the bird. A Mustan was a holistic design stressed for 8g at 8000 GW. They would have to redesign EVERY vritical component - not just main spar and longerons to re-stree the bird to a higher G... even if the re-designed the wings, the eppenage would have departed long before 12+G was experienced.

 

[GregP]

One more time:

The Galloping Ghost was a heavily modified aircraft, not a stock P-51. Not only did it have no radiator, but also they removed the starboard trim tab from operation; it ws fixed in place for lower trim drag. The port trim tab was supplying all the trimming force.

When it failed there was no trim adjustment at all, which would very probably result in a considerable nose-up moment ... but I will not comment on it further. The real question is whether or not the failure of the trim tab was caused by an on-board failure of some other system, such as the coolant boil-off, the oil boil-off, or Oxygen system.

I won't speculate any further and will defer to the NTSB investigation board. Some people Iw as at Reno with have all stated that there was a loud noise (like an explosion) from the Ghost down in the valley of speed, and they thougt the effects might have been made apparent in turns 7 - 8 right at the point of the incident. I refuse to speculate on it, but wonder if they are correct.

Maybe we'll find out ... I hope so, so it can be prevented from happening again except in mechanical failure conditions/

 

[Aaron Brooks Wolters]

In one of the videos posted on this thread earlier you can see the trim tab fall off in the last seconds of flight and it was flopping around before this. The video link is in post #104 on page 7 and was posted by jimh.

 

[bobbysocks]

drgondog: yes i understand that and saw it missing in the pics. i was merely saying that it didnt have to break off from the ac first to cause the plane to lerch due to unexpected loss of trim. it very well could have...but it could have also broken in place....get disconnected from its linkage and thus making it go into a neutral position or fluttered first. had that happened the setting for the trim wold have been viloently lost. the tab it could have dislodged shortly after that.